with its current level in the low 40s, the CBOE Volatility index signaled enough fear in the market to call at least a temporary bottom. Additionally, Friday bullish turnaround suggested strongly that an important near-term low has been established around the 1050 area in the S&P 500 index. This is positive from a technical standpoint, but the benchmark index still has some work to do in order to break above its two-month downward trend.
芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數目前位於40點附近，如此高的讀數意味着市場上存在足夠高的恐慌情緒，可以令我們斷定股市至少已經出現了一個暫時性底部。另外，上周五的多頭反轉行情強烈預示着標普500指數已經在1050點附近形成了一個重要的近期低點。從技術面來看，這是一個利多信號，不過大盤仍需進一步上漲才能突破2個月來的下降趨勢綫。
although seemingly vulnerable to further short-term weakness, the bulls shouldn’t get into any serious trouble as long as the S&P 500 index holds above the February low of 1044. With that said, until the psychological barrier at S&P 1044 falls out, it’s possible that the market is now trapped within the 1170-1050 trading ranges on the S&P 500 index. It could take more than a couple of weeks, if not months, for the market to trade outside of the ranges. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see more backing and filling in the coming days.
盡管市場短期內可能進一步下跌，但只要標普500指數堅守在2月低點1044點之上，多頭將不會陷入嚴重困境。換句話說，只要1044點的心理關口不被攻破，市場有可能在標普500指數的1170-1050的區間之內維持震蕩格局。指數最終突破這一區間可能要花數周乃至數月的時間，因此後市大盤繼續震蕩是不足為奇的。
current trading environment is terrible from the perspective of volatility. Given that high volatility indicates that investors are more risk averse, lower stocks prices should be expected if the VIX is going to stay elevated. Although considering the magnitude of Thursday’s selloff, we’re not expecting much more downside without at least some consolidation first.
