equity market may be setting up for a major short squeeze. That, if and when it happens, could trigger acceleration toward the 1000 level on the S&P 500 index. The true test this week will be whether the bulls can push prices above the three-week old congestion pattern and make new 2009 highs
After a failure to break through the March 8 high of 930, the S&P pulled back to the area of last week’s low, about 880. This level has been successful in repelling price action since the index broke out in May. despite Thursday bearish trading action, the near-term technical outlook continues favor the bulls as long as the S&P 500 holds above last week’s low at 880. Although, short-term downside momentum remains in place so this week will end sideways at best.
the FOMC minutes had reminded the market that things remain bad going forward. In addition, given that we’re still in a midst of a great recession, the combination of strength in commodities and sharp drop in the U.S. dollar had raised concerns about inflation and bottom line growth (read: profit margin squeeze) because goods are getting more expensive to produce and consume. That, in turn, would hurt stocks. And given that stock prices are based on the underlying fundamentals, we’re at risk to a big decline unless fundamental starts to improve, say a jump in GDP and/or a significant drop in unemployment rate
聯儲會議紀要給市場提了個醒：接下來形勢仍不容樂觀。另外，由於我們仍處於一場嚴重衰退之中，大宗商品的強勢加上美元大跌，這讓我們對通脹和企業盈利增長感到擔憂，因為產品的生產和消費正變得更加昂貴。這反過來又會打擊股市。除非一些基本面數據大幅改善，比如GDP大增或失業率大減，否則股市仍面臨大跌的風險。
