despite the apparent stock weakness, the market internals are still very strong. So, while it’s possible that the market may continue to see some headwinds in the coming days, the S&P 500 index will get a run to new highs after this correction.
based upon recent trading actions, the S&P 500 index is currently undergoing a short-term oversold reflex advance, which could last about 2 to 5 trading sessions. However, given that there is a significant amount of technical resistance between current level and last week’s high of 1214, a general cautious strategy should be applied.
heading into December option expiration day, the market is most likely get pin at the 1100 level on the S&P 500 index. In a longer term, Thursday’s trading action suggested strongly that the market is headed for a retest of the bottom of the 5-week trading range, around S&P 1080.
the lack of follow-through from Thursday’s rally and the fact that the market had given up all of its strong gain is very discouraging. In fact, recent trading actions suggesting strongly that risk aversion is now the predominant theme. Although given that the market had gained more than 50% in less than eight months, it would make sense for stocks to take a breather. What this means is that, as long as the S&P 500 index holds above the 1020 level and the U.S. dollar stops rallying, then this decline is nothing more than a temporary setback or another blip in the multi month rally.
the near-term technical outlook remains bullish and should provide foundation for further advance. Buyers however, should be aware of the negative divergence on the Money Flow measure. While this does not necessarily mean that a significant correction is underway, it indicates a waning upside momentum, which in turn suggests that the market could be in the final leg of the present rally. So investors need to be careful about buying stocks and need to get some downside protections for those that have already been bought