our near-term work on price pattern suggested that the bulls hold the edge for a short-term corrective rally bounce, which is taking place within a developing bearish trend. In a longer term however, the S&P 500 index appears to have more room to fall even though some technical indicators are overstretched. Traders should keep a close eye on the 1000 level. A drop below it will turn the current correction into a new bear market.
從短期價格形態來看，多頭應該會迎來一波短期超跌反彈。不過在更長期內，標普500指數似乎還有更大的下跌空間。交易者應該密切關注 1000點心理關口，跌破這一位置將使得當前的回調走勢演變成新一輪熊市。
based upon recent trading action, traders are looking for a run to the 52-week high of 1220 on the S&P 500 index. However, not only that the market is no longer oversold after recent advance, there is a significant layer of resistance between current level and the 52-week high. So it’s going to be tough to get past that level without taking a big breather. And we’d, therefore, cautious against taking large position and also believe that risk far outweighs the reward beyond that point.
從近期走勢來看，交易者在期待標普500指數上攻52周高點1220點。不過，經過近期上漲之後，市場已經不再超賣，而且在當前點位和 52周高點之間有一個強大阻力帶，因此大盤在出現一輪較大回調之前很難一舉突破這一阻力區域。因此我們建議大家低倉操作，而且相信即便股指突破阻力位，阻力位上方的風險也要遠遠大於潛在回報。
the 9 percent plus advance from February low of 1044 on the S&P 500 index could lead to some short-term consolidations within the 1130 to 1150 areas before the market continues its advance. What this means is that given that the upward trend is still intact, the coming pullback should be considered as buying opportunity rather than chances to take profits and get out.
