Additional Consolidation Will Unfold Between S&P’s 1075 and 1057

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday August 24, 2010.

Stocks rose Monday morning with the major indices climbed almost 1% as investors moved back into the market after some signs of new merger and acquisition activity.  The rally however, ran out of steam and the market slipped lower to settle near session low.  For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 39 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 10,174.  The S&P gave up about 4 points, or 0.4%, to settle at 1,067.  The NASDAQ Composite dropped 20 points, or 0.9%, to close at 2,160.

Monday’s trading action, as a matter of fact, had helped confirm the validity of the “sell the rally” scenario that we’ve traced out in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “given that the longer-term technical bias has turned down after the August 11th wide range bar down day…rallies should be considered as opportunity to sell short or trim long position as far as we’re concerned.”

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Notably, defensive-oriented stocks attracted strong buying support.  Consumer staples and utilities sectors finished with a 0.2% and 0.7% gain respectively.  Indication is that risk-aversion is now the predominant theme.  Speaking of consumer staples, shares of Del Monte Foods Co (DLM) added 0.4% to 13.15.  This is bullish from a technical perspective.  In fact, as the chart below indicated, the stock could climb up above 16 and test the 52-week high after the downward trend halted.   Just so that you know, initially profiled in our March 2, 2010 “Swing Trader Bulletin” DLM had gained about 10 percents and remained well position.

The graphics below are from our “U.S. Market ETF Trading Map”, which shows the Money Flow measure and trading ranges for DLM and S&P 500 index.  As shown, the light-blue shading represents the short-term trading range.  A move above or below that range is considered overbought (as represents by the red shading) or oversold (as represents by the dark-green shading).

delmonte_20100823

Chart 1.1 – Del Monte Foods Co (daily).

As indicated in the above chart, DLM rebounded nicely off support at the bottom of its short-term trading range near 13.  This level is roughly corresponded with the early March upside gap. This is a short-term positive.  Additionally, Money Flow measure had also been diverged from price action since early July, indicating that the downward trend is easing.   This increases the probability for a test of resistance at the area of the trend-line moving average near 13.90.  If it manages to close above that level and move higher, then it could go straight up to the next level of resistance near 16, or the 52-week high set in early April.  Support can be found around 12.50.

sp500_20100823

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

As shown, the S&P continues basing sideways near support at the 1075-1057 area.  Although short-term momentum is fast approaching an oversold territory, Money Flow measure has trending lower from below the zero line, indicating that there isn’t much of an appetite to get into stocks.  This is not very encouraging and if we continue to see that then it will reinforce our bearish view that this correction could eventually take the S&P back to the July low.  Right now the most important thing to look for is price action around the 1057 area.  If the index posted a close below it, then there is not much that would stop it from dropping further.  Resistance is at 1100.  Although unlikely at the moment, a close above that level would turn the short-term trend up and bring the August high into view.

In summary, while the near-term technical bias is currently tilted toward greater weakness than strength, the short-term momentum is fast approaching an oversold territory, suggesting that the market will need to base for awhile before the bears regain strength for another attack.  So traders should not be surprised to see additional consolidation unfold between 1075 and 1057 levels in the S&P 500 index.  The 1057 level represents a major price support and if declines are seen below it a massive new downswing in price will follow.

(By:Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

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標普將在1075-1057區間繼續整理

Editor’s note: the English version of this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2010年8月24日(周二)的市場技術分析。

由於併購活動出現升溫跡象,周一早盤投資者重返股市,各大股指攀升將近1%。然而上漲走勢很快失去動能,大盤掉頭向下並收於盤中低點附近。收盤道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌39點或0.4%,收於10174點;標普下跌大約4點或0.4%,收於1067點;納斯達克綜合指數下跌20點或0.9%,收於 2160點。

事實上,周一的行情確認了我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的“逢高出貨”判斷的有效性,我們當時寫到:“考慮到8月11日的大陰綫已經讓中期技術形態轉跌,波段交易者應該避免隔夜持倉,在我們看來,反彈應該被視為賣空或鎖定多頭頭寸利潤的時機,而非大舉做多的機會。”

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引人注目的是,防禦型股票在昨日行情中受到強勁買盤支撐。必需消費品板塊和公用事業板塊分別上漲0.2%和0.7%。這意味着風險規避是當前的市場主基調。說到必需消費品板塊,昨天Del Monte Foods Co(DLM)收盤上漲0.4%,收於13.15美元。從技術角度來講,這是看漲的。事實上,正如下圖所示,在下跌趨勢終結之後,該股可能站上16美元並考驗52周高點的阻力。大家知道,自從我們最早在2010年3月2日的“波 段交易者公告牌”中做出推薦以來,DLM已經上漲了大約10%,而且形態依然不錯。

下面的圖形來自於我們的“美 國市場ETF交易地圖”,顯示了DLM和標普500指數的交易區間和資金流向指標。如圖所示,淡藍色帶代表短期交易區間,向上突破這一區間意味着超買(紅色色帶所示),向下跌破這一區間意味着超賣(墨綠色帶所示)。

delmonte_20100823

圖1.1 Del Monte Foods Co(日線圖)

如上圖所示,DLM從13美元附近的短期交易區間底部支撐強勁反彈。這一位置也大致處於3月初向上跳空缺口處。這是一個短期利好。另外,資金流向指標自從7月初以來一直與價格走勢形成背離,意味着下跌趨勢正在緩和。這增加了價格向上測試移動平均趨勢綫阻力的概率,大約在13.90美元。如果成功收於該阻力之上並繼續攀升,該股可能會徑直上攻16美元附近的下一個阻力位,即4月初創出的52周新高。支撐位大約在12.50美元。

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圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

如圖所示,標普繼續在1075-1057區間的支撐附近橫向整理。盡管短期動能正在快速逼近超賣區域,資金流向指標仍在零綫下方不斷走低,意味着投資者的買入興趣非常微弱。這不是什麼好事情,如果這種局面持續下去,將強化我們關於此輪迴調走勢最終將把標普帶回7月低點的看跌判斷。目前最重要的一點是關注標普在1057點附近的走勢,如果指數收於該點位下方,那麼將沒有什麼能夠阻止它進一步下跌。阻力位在1100點,盡管眼下沒有可能,收盤站上這一位置將使得短期趨勢轉漲並看到8月高點。

總結:盡管近期技術面眼下更傾向於空頭而非多頭,短期動能指標正在快速逼近超賣區域,這意味着在空頭積蓄力量展開新一輪殺跌之前市場需要橫盤一小段時間。因此標普500指數在1075-1057點之間繼續橫向整理是不足為奇的。1057點是一個重要價格支撐,跌破這一位置將意味着一輪大跌在所難免。

(本文作者:Michelle Mai)
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﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱