despite the extreme oversold condition, investors showed no appetite for stocks. This is bearish and suggested that recent support, near the 870 level on the S&P 500 index might not hold for long. A sustain decline below that level could trigger a massive rally in the U.S. Dollar.

儘管已經極端超賣，投資者對股票的興趣非常微弱。這是不利的，意味著標普500指數870點附近的近期支撐可能難以守住。持續跌破這意味著將觸發美元大幅上漲。

Monday’s light volume selloff had helped remove the excessive optimism in the market and setting the stage for a recovery rally going into this Friday quadruple witching. So it seems to us that the bulls shouldn’t get into any serious troubles as long as we hold above the 920 level on the S&P 500 index. In a longer term however, the rally in the U.S. dollar could spell trouble for dollar-traded commodities, as well as the underlying commodity stocks. That, in turn, will cripple the quick economic recovery and thus drag down the entire stock market.

週一的低成交量下跌清除了市場中過分的樂觀情緒，並為本週五“四重魔力日”之前的復甦行情打下了基礎。因此在我們看來，只要標普500指數能夠堅守在920點上方，多頭應該不會遭遇太大的麻煩。不過從更長期來看，美元升值可能會給以美元計價的大宗商品及相應的商品個股帶來壓力，從而拖累整個股市。

the S&P 500 index has been confined to the 920-950 trading range over the past few weeks. Although recent trading actions suggested strongly that the path with least resistance is up. So, we believe that if the index can close above 950, it would be a positive sign for the broad market going forward