risk aversion remains the predominant theme. A dollar rally would most likely coincide with a stock pullback. Right now, we’re looking forward to a pullback to 915, or the white line in the chart, which will setup a much more potent buying opportunity.
Monday’s light volume selloff had helped remove the excessive optimism in the market and setting the stage for a recovery rally going into this Friday quadruple witching. So it seems to us that the bulls shouldn’t get into any serious troubles as long as we hold above the 920 level on the S&P 500 index. In a longer term however, the rally in the U.S. dollar could spell trouble for dollar-traded commodities, as well as the underlying commodity stocks. That, in turn, will cripple the quick economic recovery and thus drag down the entire stock market.
週一的低成交量下跌清除了市場中過分的樂觀情緒，並為本週五“四重魔力日”之前的復甦行情打下了基礎。因此在我們看來，只要標普500指數能夠堅守在920點上方，多頭應該不會遭遇太大的麻煩。不過從更長期來看，美元升值可能會給以美元計價的大宗商品及相應的商品個股帶來壓力，從而拖累整個股市。
the S&P 500 index has been confined to the 920-950 trading range over the past few weeks. Although recent trading actions suggested strongly that the path with least resistance is up. So, we believe that if the index can close above 950, it would be a positive sign for the broad market going forward
過去兩周來，標普500指數一直在920-950的交易區間震盪，不過近期價格走勢強烈預示著阻力最小的方向是向上。因此我們相信，如果指數收盤站上950點，這對大盤的後續走勢將是一個正面信號。
