Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday December 01, 2008.

Equity market finished higher Friday with the Dow Jones industrial average gained 1.2%. The session’s advance helped contribute to a 9.7% gain for the week. Market breadth was strong. Winners beat losers two to one on the NYSE. And thus we can said although trading volume was light, thanks partly to the shortened session, Friday’s advance is something more than a short covering effort ahead of the weekend.

There was, however, one red flag in last week’s massive advance - the tech sector continues to lag. The NASDAQ Composite index added just 3 points or 0.2% as the Dow up 102 points. This is bearish and suggesting that unless tech stocks get their acts together and lead next week, the rally that started from November 21 low is merely another bear market rally, and stocks will move down soon.

Speaking of tech, shares of GrafTech International Ltd. (GTI) outperformed on a relative basis, up 2.1%. It was one of the best gainers last week – up about 50%. Just so that you know, initially profiled in our November 21 “Swing Trader Bulletin” as a potential buy candidate, GTI had gained about 50% and remained well position.

Chart 1.1 - GrafTech International Ltd (daily).

As you can see, last week’s strong rally was rooted from the amazingly strong positive divergence along with the extremely oversold condition. The overall pattern looks good for more upside over the short to medium term. So we should expect a test of the 8.30 level soon. A move above 6.97 will confirm this. At this juncture, only a decline below 4.19 will begin to compromise the near-term bullish outlook.

Notably, financial stocks caught a bid in shortened holiday session with the KBW Bank index, or BKX, added 3.2%.

Chart 1.2 - KBW Bank index (daily).

Looking at the five-month daily chart of the BKX, we can see that the sector had rallied directly into key overhead resistance at the area of July and October lows. Not only that this is a tough level to overcome, our proprietary overbought/oversold indicator is also indicating an overbought condition. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see some sorts of pullback consolidations in the days ahead. In short, there are some red flags but unless there is a close below 32.96, the bears will not have any cases.

Admittedly, last week’s massive rally looked and felt very good. It, however, might still be a bear market rally unless it overshoots above key resistance around S&P 1005.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Last week’s massive rally pushed prices directly into the 2-conjoining resistance – the September trend-line and the 20-day moving average. Not only that, Friday’s narrow range bar and the stochastic overbought condition had also raised the odds for a trend reversal. In short, the current situation is very similar to what we saw at the end of October. At that time, the S&P failed to follow-through and the market collapsed.

However it doesn’t mean that history has to repeat itself. The market might just ignore the red flags and move higher. Although, in order for the bear market rally to turn into something more, we need to see a sustain advance above the November high, about 1005. This, if and when it happens, would break the “lower high, lower low” pattern going back to December 2007 and thus give us an intermediate-term buy signal.

In summary: so far the up-leg that started from November 21 low at S&P 741 has proved nothing as far as its staying power or as a possible bottom for the bear market. That’s being said, until proven otherwise, the current advance is a short-term bear market rally, which should be over sooner rather than later. Although, we would reclassify it as something stronger if we see a more constructive pattern on the S&P chart.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年12月1日(週一)的市場技術分析。

上週五美股上漲，道瓊斯工業平均指數走高1.2%，將一周漲幅擴大為9.7%。市場寬度強勁，紐約證交所上漲家數與下跌家數之比約為2比1。因此我們認為，儘管上週五成交量較小(部分是由於交易日縮短)，上漲並不僅僅是受週末前空頭回補盤的推動。

不過，上周的大漲行情存在一個危險信號，即科技板塊繼續表現落後。在道指上漲102點的情況下，納斯達克綜合指數僅上漲3個點或0.2%。這是一個不利信號，意味著除非科技股能夠再度發力並在本周領漲大市，那麼大盤從11月21日開始的多頭行情將不過是一輪熊市反彈，很快就會掉頭向下。

科技股方面，上週五GrafTech International(GTI)表現相對出色，上漲2.1%。該股是上周漲幅最大的個股之一，暴漲近50%。大家知道，自從我們在11月21日的 “Swing Trader Bulletin”中對該股作出推薦以來，漲幅已經接近50%且仍有上漲空間。

圖1.1 GrafTech International(日線圖)

從上圖我們可以看到，上周的大漲源於技術指標異常強勁的正面背離和極度超賣的局面。從總的形態來看，中短期內上漲的概率仍比較大。因此我們預計該股將很快測試8.30美元的阻力位，如果接下來站上6.97美元，將確認這一走勢。在目前關頭，只有持續跌破4.19美元才能逆轉近期看漲的態勢。

值得注意的是，在上週五半天的行情中，金融股走勢強勁，KBW銀行指數(BKX)大漲3.2%。

圖1.2 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

從銀行指數跨度為5個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，該板塊已經上攻至7月和10月低點的關鍵阻力區域。不但這是一個易守難攻的阻力位，而且我們的超買/超賣指標顯示銀行股已經進入超買，因此未來數天出現一定的回調整理行情是不足為奇的。簡而言之，銀行板塊存在一些危險信號，不過只要指數不跌破 32.96點，空頭將不會有太大機會。

無可否認，上周的大幅上漲讓大家信心大增。不過，在大盤擊穿標普指數1005點的關鍵阻力之前，這輪行情仍可能是一波熊市反彈。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

上周的強攻使得標普來到了一個雙重阻力位：9月份開始的下降趨勢線和20日均線。不僅如此，上週五形成的窄幅陽線和隨機指標的超買信號都加大了趨勢反轉的概率。簡而言之，股市目前的局面同10月底的時候非常相像，當時標普未能延續攻勢、市場隨之一瀉千里。

當然，這並不意味著歷史一定會簡單重複。市場仍有可能忽略上述危險信號並繼續走高。不過，熊市反彈要想轉變成一輪真正的多頭行情，我們需要看到標普穩定站上11月高點，大約1005點。若果如此，將打破從2007年12月以來“低點越來越低、高點越來越低”的模式，從而發出中期買入的信號。

總結：到目前為止，從11月21日低點、標普741點開始的這輪行情還未證實其持久性和熊市見底的可能性。換句話說，如果不出意外的話，當前這輪漲勢只是一輪短期熊市反彈，可能很快就會結束。不過，如果我們看到標普出現更具建設性的形態，我們將對上述判斷作出修改。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday November 25, 2008.

Yesterday we said that: “the S&P 500 index is technically indicating extreme favor to the upside. And vicious snapback rally is, therefore, expected.” As anticipated, stocks surged Monday with the Dow Jones industrial average added 397 points – the blue-chips indicator was as much as 552 points with 15 minutes to go but dropped 150 points in the last few minutes – on news that Citigroup (C) gets bailed out by the government and President-elect Obama introduces his economic team heads by Tim Geithner at Treasury, Larry Summers as economist-in-chief and Peter Orszag as White House budgets director.

Overall it was a very good day on the Street with all ten of the economic sectors posted gain. The financial sector gained the most, spiking 18.5% - the biggest advance in 20 years – with Citigroup jumped 55%.

Chart 1.1 - Citigroup (daily).

Looking at the four-month daily chart of Citigroup, we can see that the stock catapulted higher Monday after a drop into the area of the 1994 low was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. Also note the “Trend Forecaster” bullish signal. While Monday’s massive turn around is pretty encouraging, the recovery rally that started from Friday low at 3.05 appeared to be overextended. So, it wouldn’t surprise us to see some sorts of pullback consolidations in the days ahead. This, if and when it happens, is not necessarily a bad thing. After a massive rally, a healthy consolidation would give the stock some times to establish a strong footing. In short, the near-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below 3.05.

Good news surrounding the financial stocks helped put in a bid in equity market. The boarder market, S&P 500, index rose 6.4% to settle at 851. Much like last Friday, Monday’s massive advance was a combination of short-covering (short-covering is when traders who have sold stocks short to take advantage of the falling price need to buy the stock back as it starts to rise) and bargain hunters.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

As you can see from the daily chart of the S&P 500 index, there are 2 hurdles to overcome – the massive 2-conjoining trend-line resistance (the November falling trend-line and the October lows) around 850 and the 20-day moving average. Not only that these are tough levels to overcome, the background fundamentals haven’t really changed. So we would caution any enthusiasm and will be taking some money off the table into any rally into the 900 level.

In summary: technically speaking, trading action was pretty encouraging in the past two day. And it’d be a major victory just to see the market repair some of the damage we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks, and perhaps moving above the S&P 900 level. However, the market is no longer oversold after the 2 day back-to-back rally and trading volume will start to decline around mid-week due to the Thanksgiving holiday so we could be facing some sorts of choppy trading actions in the days ahead.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年11月25日(週二)的市場技術分析。

昨天我們說到：“從技術上講標普500指數繼續上漲的概率非常大，因此我們預計會出現爆發式上漲。”恰如我們所料，週一股市大漲，道瓊斯工業平均指數最高漲幅高達552點，收盤前最後幾分鐘回落150點，收盤上漲397點。昨天的利好消息有兩個，一是花旗集團(C)獲得政府救援，二是奧巴馬確定了他的經濟班子，蒂姆-蓋特納(Tim Geithner)為財政部長，拉裡-薩默斯(Larry Summer)為首席經濟學家，彼特-奧斯澤格(Peter Orszag)為國會預算辦公室主任。

總體來講，昨天是華爾街的一個好日子，十大經濟板塊全部上漲。金融板塊漲幅最大，暴漲18.5%，為20年來最大漲幅，其中花旗集團飆升55%。

圖1.1 花旗集團(日線圖)

從花旗集團跨度為4個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，該股在跌入1994年低點區域時迎來強勁做多意願，出現報復性反彈。大家還可注意到，我們的 “Trend Forecaster” 發出看漲信號。儘管週一的反轉走勢令人激動，但從上週五低點3.05美元開始的反彈行情似乎有些超漲，因此未來數天出現一定的回調整理走勢是不足為奇的。如果出現回調，也不一定就是壞事。大幅上漲之後出現健康的回調，這樣可給該股贏得一些時間來奠定一個穩健的基礎。簡而言之，除非收盤跌破3.05美元，該股近期走勢依然看漲。

金融股的利好消息對大盤形成拉動。標普500指數暴漲6.4%，收於851點。同上週五一樣，週一的暴漲是同時由空頭回補和抄底盤所推動的。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

從上面標普500指數的日線圖上我們可以看到，指數目前需要攻克兩大障礙，一是從11月份開始的下降趨勢線和10月低點的重合阻力，大約850 點，另一個是20日均線。不但這些阻力位非常強大，而是市場基本面並未出現實質改善。因此我們在進入的時候一定要謹慎，反彈至900點位置時要將一部分資金撤出。

總結：從技術上來講，過去兩個交易日的走勢非常激動人心。如果市場能夠修復過去兩周來的技術破壞，甚至標普能夠站上900點的話，將是一個巨大的勝利。不過，經過連續連天暴漲之後，市場已經不再超賣，而且由於“感恩節”的到來，本周接下來成交量會開始下滑，因此我們預計未來數天可能出現震盪走勢。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday November 24, 2008.

Another day, another wild ride. The Dow Jones industrial was drifting into negative territory Friday afternoon after Citigroup (C) CEO shot down the rumors that the trouble bank was putting itself up for sale. But unlike much of the week, when the markets sold off and ended at the lows of the day, stocks managed to snap back in the last hour of trading as reports about the President-Elect Barack Obama’s nominee for Treasury Secretary circulated. The Dow spiked as much as 519 points after NBC News reported New York Fed President Tim Geithner would become the next Treasury Secretary.

General speaking, the late-day rally was the combination of the technical oversold condition and the Geithner report. However, given the poor fundamentals, the market could have remained oversold for sometimes if the Geithner report had not started circulating Friday afternoon.

Notably, shares of Dell Inc (DELL) were under pressure Friday, down 5.2%, despite the better-than-expected earning reports.

Chart 1.1 - Dell Inc (weekly).

Looking at the nine-month weekly chart of DELL, we can see that the stock shed more than half of its market cap, in just 3 months immediate followed our “Trend Forecaster” bearish signal. As you can see, selling has accelerated after the February-April lows were taken out. The first wave of selling – from September into late-October was a decline of 43% (from 18.82 to 10.59, roughly). Many traders thought that was the bottom because of the historic oversold conditions that existed at the time. However, oversold was getting even more oversold. The stock broke down decisively, lost another 35% (from 13.32 to 8.72, roughly) after a rally into the 20-day moving average was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest.

What we find totally amazing about the stock is that the monstrous oversold conditions of October had little or no effect generating a snap back rally. This is very bearish and suggesting that the path with least resistance is down. At this juncture, only an advance above 13.32 will begin to wreck the near-term bearish outlook.

With the market having one of its biggest points gain ever, the question to ask is ‘can we expect the selling to be done?’ And for this question, we have a simple chart to follow:

Chart 1.2 – CBOE Volatility index (daily).

It’s quite interesting that the CBOE Volatility index, or VIX, couldn’t make it to its October extremes along with the indices. This is bullish for stocks. However, the VIX would have to fall below the August trend-line, now about 54, in order to violate the current uptrend. This, if and when it happens, will give us an intermediate-term buy signal for stocks.

The S&P 500 printed a massive bullish reversal pattern on the daily chart as volatility tanked. The board market index jumped 6.3% to finish at 800. Strikingly, the move was supported by relatively heavy volume. Nearly 2.4 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE Friday compared with the daily average volume of 1.5 billion shares.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Current price structure suggested strongly that the down-leg that started from November 4 high at 1005.75 had been completed and the market is in an early stage of a potent recovery rally period that points to a test of the 845 level, then all the way to 1005. An advance above 820 will confirm this. Immediate support is at the area of Friday’s low, about 741. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below this level will begin to wreck the near-term bullish set-up.

In summary: the boarder market index, S&P 500, is technically indicating extreme favor to the upside. And vicious snapback rally into the end of the month is, therefore, expected.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年11月24日(週一)的市場技術分析。

上週五又是一個瘋狂的交易日。在花旗集團(C)首席執行官澄清花旗準備出售的傳言之後，下午道瓊斯工業平均指數緩慢滑入下跌區域。但同上周多次尾盤暴跌的行情不一樣，在奧巴馬確定財政部長候選人的消息刺激下，上週五股市收盤前大幅飆升。在NBC報導蒂姆-蓋特納(Tim Geithner)將成為下任財長之後，道指飆升519點。

總的來講，上週五尾盤的大漲既有技術超賣的原因，也有關於蓋特納報導的原因。不過，在基本面如此糟糕的情況下，如果關於蓋特納的報導沒有在上週五下午出來，市場的超賣狀態可能還將持續一段時間。

值得注意的是，儘管發佈超預期的財報，上週五戴爾(DELL)股價遭遇賣壓，下跌5.2%。

圖1.1 戴爾(周線圖)

從戴爾跨度為9個月的周線圖上我們可以看到，在我們的“Trend Forecaster”發出看跌信號短短3個月後，戴爾市值已經縮水一半多。從9月到10月底的第一波拋盤使得戴爾股價下跌43%(大致從18.82美元跌至10.59美元)。很多交易者認為這時已經見底，因為當時超賣狀態已經持續很長時間了。然而，超賣變成了更加超賣，該股在反彈至20日均線時迎來新一輪拋盤，繼續下跌35%(大約從13.32美元跌至8.72美元)。

該股10月底面臨的嚴重超賣狀態未能引發一波快速反彈，這令人不解。這是非常利空的信號，意味著阻力最小的方向仍是向下。在目前關頭，只有站上13.32美元才能逆轉近期看跌的態勢。

上週五股市出現有史以來最大的點數漲幅之一，於是問題來了：拋盤是否已經結束？為了回答這個問題，我們來看一張簡單的圖形：

圖1.2 芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數(日線圖)

一個有意思的現象是，波動率指數(VIX)並未跟隨各大指數返回10月份的極端狀態。這對股市是有利的。不過，指數要想改變當前的上升趨勢，必須突破從8月份開始的上升趨勢線，目前大約在54點。如果突破趨勢線，將給股市發出中期買入信號。

由於波動率降低，標普500指數在日線圖上收出了一根巨大的反轉陽線。標普暴漲6.3%，收於800點。值得注意的是，暴漲獲得了相對較高的量能支持。上週五紐交所成交量24億股，大大高於15億股的日均水平。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普目前的價格形態強烈預示著從11月4日高點1005.75點開始的下跌趨勢已經結束，市場正處在一輪復甦行情的初期，指向對845點的測試，然後一路奔向1005點。如果後續站上820點，將確認這一走勢。緊鄰支撐位在上周低點附近，大約741點。在目前關頭，只有堅定跌破這一位置才能逆轉近期看漲的態勢。

總結：從技術上講，標普500指數上攻的意願很強烈，因此本月底可能會出現報復性反彈。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。