Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for October 9, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for October 9, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday October 08, 2008.

After trading about 1.5% higher at the open on the FED’s plan to short up short-term corporate borrowing, stocks quickly turned lower by midmorning amid weak earning report from Bank of America (BAC) and cautious comments from the FED Chairman Ben Bernanke. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 508 points or 5.1% to close at 9447 – the level that had not seen since September 2003. While the blue-chips index closed near the intraday low and took out Monday’s low, volume was lower and the VIX didn’t spike as high as it did on Monday. The lack of volume in Tuesday’ massive decline, in fact, suggested that we’re in an orderly sell-off phase rather than a panic selling mode. Also, the low volume points more to a lack of buyers than a decrease in selling pressure.

Chart 1.1 – CBOE Volatility index (daily).

The closely watch market’s gauge of fear, the CBOE Volatility index, or VIX, soared past 50 for a second day in a row. Notably, while the VIX close higher, it didn’t spike as high as it did Monday. So we could be in an orderly distribution mode rather than a panic selling phase.

In the past, when we’ve got such an extreme amount of fear in the market, one would expect the market to bottom and stocks move a bit higher for a period of time. However, it’s different this time. Despite the historical high readings in a majority of important market indicators, the board market, S&P 500, index took out the important sentiment 1000 level.

Chart 1.2 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

As you can see from the above chart, Tuesday’s decline pushed prices below key support at the area of Monday’s low. This is bad because it had invalidated the previous bullish set-up. In addition, the fact that the market can not even sustain a modest bounce in the face of an extreme oversold condition is very disappointing. It’s suggesting that we might have gone to a point where technical indicators and valuations are no longer work.

Right now the most obvious level to watch is the 2003 bullish breakout point, about 940. This is a very strong support. So there is a pretty good chance that we’ll see some sorts of modest rebounds around this level. As usual we must stress out that a failure to hold above the 940 level indicates that a retest of the previous bear market low, about 768, is inevitable.

In summary: like many of you, we’re searching for the best route to take and we wish that we could paint a perfect roadmap for all of us to trade by. Unfortunately, so far, there are virtually no models or patterns or history that can provide a good roadmap through the current financial crisis. In short, we think that the market had gone to a point where history isn’t a good guide anymore. It’s well-known that when terror strikes, all the analysis under the sun goes out the window. Although like many tough times in the past, this too shall past. That’s being said, if we believe that the US government will be trying everything it could – includes printing money at the speed of light – just to keep the financial system running, then it’s possible that we will get through this sooner rather than later.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年10月8日(週三)的市場技術分析。

由於聯儲計劃採取行動緩解企業短期信貸壓力，週二美股高開大約1.5%，但受美國銀行(BAC)利空財報和聯儲主席伯南克謹慎言論的影響，上午大盤迅速掉頭向下。昨天收盤，道瓊斯工業平均指數暴跌508點或5.1%，收於9447點，這是道指自2003年9月以來的最低點位。儘管道指收於盤中低點並突破了週一低點，但量能反而有所下降，波動率指數(VIX)也沒有飆升至週一最高點的水平。週二價格暴跌但是量能回縮，事實上說明股市進入了有序拋售的階段，而非恐慌性拋盤的模式。同時，低成交量更多地意味著買盤的缺乏而非賣壓的下降。

圖1.1 芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數(日線圖)

衡量市場恐慌情緒的芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數(VIX)連續兩個交易日飆升至50以上。值得注意的是，儘管昨天VIX收盤高於週一的水平，但最高點卻遠低於週一最高點，這說明現在可能處在有序派發的模式下，而非恐慌性拋盤的局面。

在以往，如果市場出現這樣極度恐慌的情緒，我們可以認為市場將要見底並走出一波上升行情。然而這次不一樣，儘管大部分重要市場指標均創出歷史紀錄，標普500指數仍跌破了1000點心理大關。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

從上圖我們可以看到，週二的暴跌使得指數跌破了週一低點區域的關鍵支撐。這非常不利，因為它使得此前的看漲形態失效。另外，市場已經極端超賣，但仍不能出現哪怕溫和的反彈，這非常令人失望，意味著大盤可能要跌到技術指標和估值全部失效的點位。目前最應該關注的位置是2003年的向上突破位，大約 940點。這是一個非常有力的支撐，因此標普在這一位置出現某種適度反彈是非常有可能的。不過我們仍須強調，如果指數失守940點，將意味著不可避免地出現重新測試上一輪熊市低點的走勢，大約768點。

總結：同大家一樣，我們一直在試圖準確地解讀市場，希望能夠給所有的交易者畫出一幅完美的路線圖，然而不幸的是，到目前為止，事實上沒有任何模型、範式或歷史經驗可以給我們提供渡過目前這場金融危機的有效路線圖。簡單來講，我們認為目前股市已經來到了歷史經驗不再起作用的時點。大家都知道，當恐怖襲來的時候，所有的分析都不再有用。不過同過去許多艱難時期一樣，這場危機也會過去。總的來說，如果我們相信美國政府將盡一切努力維持金融系統的運轉，包括日夜不停地趕印鈔票，那麼有可能不用太久危機就會過去。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。