Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for October 8, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for October 8, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday October 07, 2008.

Equity market stumble out of gate Monday with the Dow lost as much as 800 points at its low of the day amid growing concerns about the stability of global financial system. Although the late session buying interest had helped stocks recover more than half of the early lost. Contributed to the late day optimism was news that France proposed an emergency G8 meeting on the financial crisis, which increased speculation that global central banks may make a coordinate rate cut.

Overall it was a very difficult day. Despite the large point declines, volume was relatively light. And the reason is that traders believed that the only people in the market right now were forced sellers, so buyers saw little reason to participate. From a contrarian point of view, this is positive because while the trading action does not qualify as panic selling, it is clearly an evidence of the beginning of a race to the exits.

It worth noticing that the number of stocks making new lows on the NYSE had reached the level that had not seen since 1998. This is short-term bullish because the spike in the new lows implies that a stock market bottoming is forming. In addition, the measure of investor’s fear surged with the CBOE Volatility index, or VIX, at a 19-year high. General speaking, high volatility never happens in the middle of a cycle. It often associates with market tops or bottoms and this is certainly not a market top. So, we could be at or very close to an important market’s low.

Given the action we had today, it wasn’t surprised us to see the market printed a bullish reversal bar with a long bottoming tail on the daily chart.

Chart 1.1 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

Looking at the five-month daily chart of the S&P 500 index we can see that the market got a nice lift after a test of the 2004 low, about 1060, was met with a new wave of buying interest. In addition, we’re also pretty much oversold in all time frames – a condition that often precursor to a meaningful rebound. So, we’re intended to hang on to the bullish bias as long as the S&P holds above Monday’s low, about 1007.

In summary: Monday’s trading action exhibiting a characteristic of a blow-off bottom pattern. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see a snap-back rally, which could take place as soon as tomorrow.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年10月7日(週二)的市場技術分析。

由於投資者對全球金融系統穩定性的擔憂不斷升溫，週一美股開盤後暴挫，道指最大跌幅逾800點。不過尾盤投資者做多意願強烈，大盤止跌回升，收盤跌幅收窄至盤中最大跌幅的一半以下。導致尾盤拉升的主要利好消息是法國提議緊急召開八國峰會，商討如何應對金融危機，這使得投資者猜測全球各國央行可能會相應地作出降息舉措。

總的來說，昨天是非常艱難的一天。儘管各大指數跌幅很大，但量能卻相對清淡，原因是交易者相信目前市場中唯一活躍的是被動拋售者，因此多頭沒有太多理由參與其中。從反向思維的角度來看，這是一個正面的信號，因為儘管昨天的行情算不上恐慌性拋盤，但投資者開始大批出逃的跡象卻十分明顯。

值得注意的是，目前紐約證交所創新低的個股數量已經達到了1998年來的最高水平。這在短期內是一個看漲信號，因為創新低個股數量的劇增意味著股市正在築底。另外，衡量投資者恐慌情緒的芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數(VIX)飆升至19年來新高。一般來講，高波動率從來不會發生在一輪行情的中途，它通常是同市場頂部或底部相聯繫的，而目前大盤的位置顯然不是一個頂部。因此，市場可能處於或非常接近一個重要底部。

由於昨天的暴跌反彈行情，標普在日線圖上形成了一根長下影線的多頭反轉燭線。

圖1.1 標普500指數(日線圖)

從上面標普500跨度為5個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，市場在測試2004年低點(大約1060點)時迎來新一輪買盤，獲得良好的支撐。另外，目前市場各個時段均嚴重超賣，這通常預示著大的反彈行情。因此，只要標普堅守在週一低點上方，大約1007點，我們打算繼續維持看漲判斷。

總結：週一的行情表現出很強的築底特徵，因此大盤接下來出現大幅反彈是不足為奇的，最快今天就會發生。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。