Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday October 31, 2008.

Yesterday we said that: “Wednesday’s trading action indicated that we’re still in for a rough ride going forward. Although, from a long-term perspective, we’re believed that the bulk of the bearish trend has ended, and stocks are now in process of forming an important bottom where the new bull-leg will be based and launched in the upcoming months and years.” As anticipate, market’s wild swing continues Thursday. The major market indices were up about 3% in early trading on strength overnight in Asian markets, solid earnings reports, and a better-than-expected GDP number. Buying momentum, however, eased as the session wore on. Although the last minute buying interest helped stocks finish with strong gains. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average gained about 189 points or 2.1% to settle at 9180. Just so that you know, as of Thursday closing, the blue-chips index had lost 1670 points for the month – its worse month ever going back to 1901. On percentage basis, however, the decline of 15.4% does not rank in the top ten.

Notably, large-cap tech stocks outperformed Thursday led by Apple Inc (AAPL). Shares of the iPod and iPhone maker has rebounded nearly 20% in the last 3 day. The PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) – an ETF that tracks the performance of the NASDAQ 100 index – gain 3.3% as a result.

Chart 1.1 – PowerShares QQQ (weekly).

Our near-term work on the price structure and momentum of QQQQ suggested strongly that an important low had been established and the stock is in an early stage of a new up-leg that points to a test of the 36.15 level, then all the way to 41. A sustain advance above 33.65 will confirm this. Immediate support is around the 28 level. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below this level can wreck the near-term bullish set-up.

Optimism surrounding the large-cap tech stocks had helped move the market higher with the S&P 500 index gained 24 points or 2.6% to finish at 954. For the month, the board market index had lost nearly 212 points or 18.2% and is currently on track to post its worse month ever on a point basis and ninth worse ever on a percentage basis going back to 1930.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The S&P continues basing sideway just below resistance at the area of the 20-day moving average. The action is not very encouraging though as long as it holds above the October 10 “capitulation low”, we’re intended to hang on to the bullish bias. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is last week’s high at 985.40. This, if taken out, will increase the odds for a test of key overhead resistance around the 1044 area. In short, the near-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below the 839.80 level.

In summary: Thursday’s trading action suggested that there is a pretty good chance that we’ll see at least one more attempt to rally above S&P 20-day moving average. Longer term, stocks are still in the process of putting a bottom in place. So, we’ll continue to see significant price swings though volatility should start to decrease soon.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年10月31日(週五)的市場技術分析。

昨天我們說到：“週三的走勢意味著接下來的行情依然十分艱難。不過從長期來看，我們相信大的下跌趨勢已經終結，股市正處在築就重要底部的過程之中，在未來以月和年計的時間裡，將會以此為基礎走出新的牛市。”恰如我們所料，週四股市延續了震盪格局。受隔夜亞洲股市暴漲、強勁上市公司財報和高於預期的GDP數據的推動。各大股指早盤最高漲幅達到3%。然而，隨著行情的繼續，買盤力量逐漸減弱。不過收盤前投資者的做多意願使得大盤出現較大漲幅。昨天收盤道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲大約189點或2.1%，收於9180點。我們知道，截止到週四收盤，本月道指已經下跌了1670點，為1901年以來最大月度點數跌幅。不過從下跌百分比來看，15.4%的月度跌幅還排不上前十。

值得注意的是，週四在蘋果(AAPL)的帶領下，藍籌科技股表現突出。過去3個交易日，這家iPod和iPhone製造商的股價反彈了近20%。昨天跟蹤納斯達克100指數的交易所交易基金PowerShares QQQ(QQQQ)收盤大漲3.3%。

圖1.1 PowerShares QQQ(周線圖)

QQQQ的近期價格形態和動能強烈預示著一個低點已經形成，價格走勢處於新一輪多頭行情的初期階段，指向對36.15美元的測試，然後直奔41 美元。如果該ETF後市站上33.65美元，將確認這一走勢。緊鄰支撐位大約在28美元。在目前關頭，只有有效跌破這一位置才能逆轉近期看漲的形態。

投資者對大型科技股的樂觀情緒也推高了大盤，標普500指數上漲24點或2.6%，收於954點。10月份，標普500指數已經下跌大約212點或18.2%，本月有可能出現1930年以來最大月度點數跌幅和第九大百分比跌幅。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普繼續在20日均線阻力下方橫向整理。這樣的走勢並不是特別有利，不過只要指數堅守在10月10日“投降式低點”之上，我們仍傾向於維持看漲判斷。目前最應該關注的位置是上周高點985.40點。如果突破這一阻力，將增加重新測試1044點附近關鍵上方阻力的可能性。簡而言之，除非標普收盤跌破839.80點，近期形態依然看漲。

總結：週四的行情預示著標普很有可能至少再出現一次上攻20日均線的嘗試。更長期來看，股市依然處在反覆築底的過程之中。因此，我們將繼續看到價格的劇烈震盪，不過波動率應該會很快開始趨緩。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for October 31, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for October 31, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday October 30, 2008.

Equity market closed lower Wednesday after the late-day FOMC induced rally was reversed in the last 15 minutes of the trading session amid the disappointed report on General Electric’s (GE) 2009 outlook. Talk about a disappointment, the Dow moved over 400 points in about 5 minutes into the close - it gained as much as 298 points before sellers stepped in and pushed prices lower. For the day, the blue-chips index lost about 74 points or 0.8% to settle at 8990.

Speaking of the FOMC, the US policymakers voted to cut the fed funds rate by half a percentage point to 1.0% - the lowest level since June 2004. The discount rate was also reduced by half a percentage point to 1.25%. The US Dollars dropped 2.7% against a basket of world currencies as a result.

Notably, commodities rallied across the board in a rebound trade that was compounded by a sharp drop in the greenback and the bullish inventory report – the government’s weekly energy report showed a smaller-than-expected increase in crude inventories levels. The energy and materials sectors outperformed, up 2.3% and 2.7% respectively. As a matter of fact, these positive developments had confirmed the validity of the “bullish” scenario that we’ve traced out in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “current price structure of the Materials Sector SPDR (XLB) – an ETF that tracks the performance of the US material sector – suggested strongly that an important low had been established and the sector is in an early stage of a new up-leg that points to a test of the 25.91 level.” The XLB traded as high as 26.09 Tuesday before gave up some of the gains to close at 24.85, up 4.1%. Any calls options traded could have earned at least 50% intraday.

Chart 1.1 – United States Oil (daily).

Current price structure of the United States Oil (USO) – an ETF that tracks the performance of the spot price of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil – suggested strongly that an important low had been established and the sector is in an early stage of a new up-leg that points to a test of the 62.50 level, then all the way to 73. An upside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. Immediate support is about 50.40. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below this level can wreck the near-term bullish outlook.

Strikingly, about 500,000 S&P 500 E-mini futures contracts traded from 3:45 to 4:05 PM ET. That’s about $23 billion, or 15% of the total volume of E-minis traded all day. So, while GE was to blame for the late-day weakness, the last minutes sell-off smelled like someone is dumping stock in a big way. This is a notable sign because it’s a repeat of the mid-October performance, where the S&P lost 9% immediately followed October 14^th bearish reversal signal (see chart below).

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The S&P gained about 3.1% with 10 minutes left in the session and then quickly sank to a 1.8% loss before settling with a decline of 1.1%. The late-day sell-off turned what was shaping up to be a good follow through to Monday’s bullish reversal into a failing retracement to the 20-day moving average. As you can see, the trading pattern was pretty much similar to that of October 14^th. And now, it’s all about follow-through. With that said, a downside follow-through tomorrow will confirm Tuesday’s bearish reversal signal and a retest of the ‘capitulation low’ at 839.80 is, therefore, expected. Meanwhile, a sustain advance above the 20-day moving average will wreck Wednesday’s bearish implication and increasing the odds for a test of the 1044 level.

In summary: Wednesday’s trading action indicated that we’re still in for a rough ride going forward. Although, from a long-term perspective, we’re believed that the bulk of the bearish trend has ended, and stocks are now in process of forming an important bottom where the new bull-leg will be based and launched in the upcoming months and years. Also, as we’ve noted in the previous Market Outlook, it’s possible that prices might dip to a slightly lower low, but trading over the next few months should be range-bound. In short, while the primary trend is still pointing, a majority of market indicators suggested strongly that we’re at or pretty close to a major bottom.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年10月30日(週四)的市場技術分析。

週三美股低收。下午聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)的降息公告激發大盤強勁飆升，但通用電氣(GE)令人失望的2009年業績目標導致股市最後 15分鐘暴跌。道指在收盤前大約5分鐘內狂瀉400多點，而在空頭入場將價格推低之前指數一度上漲298點。結果道指下跌大約74點或0.8%，收於 8990點。

昨天美國貨幣政策制定者、聯邦公開市場委員會宣佈將聯邦基金利率降低0.5%至1.0%，為2004年6月以來最低利率水平。貼現率也降低半個百分點至1.25%。結果美元對一攬子全球貨幣的匯率大跌2.7%。

值得注意的是，昨天大宗商品全線上揚，能源和原材料板塊表現優於大市，分別上漲2.3%和2.7%。刺激大宗商品上揚的因素一是美元的大跌，二是利好的庫存報告。政府的周度能源報告顯示，原油庫存的增幅低於此前預期。事實上，昨天原料板塊的走勢確認了我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的“看漲”判斷的有效性，我們當時寫道：“從上面跟蹤美國原料板塊的交易所交易基金Materials Sector SPDR(XLB)的日線圖我們可以看到，該板塊目前的價格形態強烈預示著一個重要低點已經形成，板塊正處在一輪多頭行情的初級階段，指向對25.91美元的測試，然後直奔35美元。”週二XLB最高漲至26.09美元，最後有所回落，收於24.85美元，漲幅4.1%。昨天所有交易的看漲期權收益率至少都在50%以上。

圖1.1 United States Oil(日線圖)

從上面跟蹤西德州輕質低硫原油現貨價格走勢的交易所交易基金United States Oil(USO)的圖形來看，目前的價格形態強烈預示著一個重要低點已經形成，原油板塊正處在新一輪漲勢的初期階段，指向對62.50美元的測試，然後一路奔向73美元。如果今天繼續上揚，將確認這一走勢。緊鄰支撐位大約在50.40美元。在目前關頭，只有堅定跌破這一位置才能逆轉近期看漲的態勢。

引人注目的是，昨天從美東時間下午3點45分到4點05分，交易的E-mini標準普爾500期貨合約達50萬份，金額大約為230億美元，這是全天所有E-mini期貨合約成交量的15%。因此，儘管股市尾盤跳水是因為通用電氣，但最後幾分鐘的暴跌感覺像是有人在瘋狂出貨。這是一個不可忽視的信號，因為這是在重複10月中旬的走勢，當時標普在10月14日出現空頭反轉信號之後立即暴跌9%。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

在距離收盤10分鐘時，標普上漲大約3.1%，但隨後立即跳水，轉為下挫1.8%，收盤跌幅收窄至1.1%。尾盤的暴跌使得週一多頭反轉後上攻 20日均線的走勢有可能歸於失敗。從圖形上我們可以看到，目前的交易形態同10月14日非常類似。因此接下來出現延續走勢的可能性很大。換句話說，如果今天大盤繼續下跌，將確認週三的空頭反轉信號，並有望測試839.80的“投降式低點”。相反，如果標普有效站上20日均線，將使得週三的空頭信號失效，並增加測試1044點的概率。

總結：週三的走勢意味著接下來的行情依然十分艱難。不過從長期來看，我們相信大的下跌趨勢已經終結，股市正處在築就重要底部的過程之中，在未來以月和年計的時間裡，將會以此為基礎走出新的牛市。同時，我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出，大盤有可能會跌出一個較小的低點更低，不過未來數月股市會呈現區間運行的態勢。簡而言之，儘管主導趨勢依然為下跌，但大量指標均強烈預示著我們已經處於或非常接近一個大底。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。