Due to traveling schedule, there will be no publications for October 1 and 2. The regular update will resume on October 3, 2008.
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This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for September 30, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.
This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for September 30, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.
Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.
Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday September 29, 2008.
Stocks opened sharply lower on Friday morning with the Dow down as much as 270 points in early trading. All ten of the economic sectors in the S&P 500 are trading with losses.
Contributed to the early weakness was news that the largest thrift in the U.S., Washington Mutual (WM), was seized by federal regulators on Thursday evening. To avoid a complete disruption of WaMu’s business operations, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stepped forward to acquire WaMu’s deposits, assets, and certain liabilities from the FDIC for $1.9 billion in a government-brokered deal. For the day, shares of WaMu down 90%, while JPM jumped 11%. This acquisition makes JPM becoming the second largest branch network behind Bank of America (BAC). Diversified financial service firms advanced 7.5% on assumption that their strength will enable them to stave off problems in financial and credit markets.
Their influence helped the KBW Bank index, or BKX, reversed an early 4.8% loss into a 2.6% advance.
Chart 1.1 – KBW Bank index (daily).
Despite recent volatility, conflicting signals emanating from the government as it tries to come up with an acceptable rescue plan, chart of the BKX remains neutral, at least for the time being. As you can see, prices continue basing sideway as the market digests the short-term overbought condition. The action, in fact, pretty encouraging and suggesting that we might see at least one more attempt to rally this week. Right now the most obvious level to watch is September 22 high at 82.46. This, if taken out will increase the odds for retest of key resistance just below the 90 level. Only decline that breaks and sustains beneath 68.53 will begin to compromise the bullish set-up, while a decline that breaks 58.62 will invalidate the near-term bullish outlook.
Strength in the financial stocks had helped put in a bid in the market. After spending the vast majority of the session in negative territory, the S&P 500 spike upward in the final hour of trading to finished at session high, up 0.3%.
Chart 1.2 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).
Chart of the S&P remains positive, at least from a short-term perspective. The stochastic indicator also strengthens the bullish case as it crossed above its signal line Friday. It’s also interesting to note the bullish divergence in the stochastic indicator when comparing its July and September lows to prices. Now, it’s all about follow-through. That’s being said, a sustain advance above 1220.03 will complete the bullish trend reversal set-up, and a test of the 1255 level is, therefore, expected. Conversely, a decline that breaks and sustains beneath 1179.79 will invalidate the bullish set-up and a test of key support around the 1156-1133 level is, therefore, inevitable.
In summary: conventional wisdom is telling us that if the bailout plan gets passed over the weekend, then we’ll rally hard on Monday. If we don’t get the deal, then there is a higher than average odds that we’ll be facing a massive sell-off. Again, we are still in a news-driven environment so be very careful.
Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.
Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.
這是Capital Essence對2008年9月29日(週一)的市場技術分析。
上週五美股大幅低開，道指早盤最大跌幅高達270點，標普500所有十大經濟板塊全部下跌。導致週五早盤下挫的重大利空消息是華盛頓互惠銀行 (WM)週四晚間被聯邦監管層接管。為了防止華盛頓互惠銀行的運營業務徹底中斷，摩根大通(JPM)參與進來，從聯邦存款保險公司(FDIC)手中以19 億美元收購了華互的存款、資產和某些負債。上週五，華互股價暴跌90%，而摩根大通大漲11%。這筆收購使得摩根大通獲得全國第二大的分支機構網，僅次於美國銀行(BAC)。業務多樣化的金融服務機構股價大漲7.5%，因為市場認為它們的強大實力可以避開金融和信貸市場出現的問題。
在它們的拉動下，KBW銀行指數(BKX)止跌反彈，從早盤4.8%的跌幅拉升至上漲2.6%。
圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)
儘管政府在努力推出一份可接受的救市計劃時向市場發出大量變動和衝突的信號，但是銀行指數的圖形依然比較平穩，至少目前是如此。我們可以看到，指數最近一直處於橫向整理態勢，不斷消化短期超買的局面。事實上，這樣的走勢是非常鼓舞人心的，預示著本周至少會再出現一次上攻嘗試。目前最應該關注的位置是9月22日高點，位於82.46點。如果攻克這一阻力，將增加重新測試90點下方關鍵阻力位的概率。只有擊穿並持續在68.53點下方運行才有可能開始改變看漲的形態，而跌破58.62點將使得近期看漲形態徹底失效。
金融股的強勢帶動了大盤走高。上週五標普500絕大部分交易日都在紅盤區域運行，收盤前一個小時突然大幅飆升，收於一日行情的高點，高收0.3%。
圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)
標普的圖形依然正面，至少從短期來看。隨機指標從下方上交零線，也強化了看漲的信號。我們還可以注意到，相對於價格的7月低點和9月低點，隨機指標出現正面背離。目前這種動能應該會持續下去。總的來說，如果標普站上1220.03點，將完成向上反轉的形態，從而有望測試1255點。相反，如果指數有效跌破1179.79點，將使得看漲形態失效，從而不可避免地出現測試1156-1133點關鍵支撐區域的走勢。
總結：根據常識判斷，如果週末過後救市計劃獲得批准，週一股市將會大幅上漲。相反，如果計劃未能順利通過，股市暴跌的可能性比較大。不管怎麼說，目前仍是一個消息驅動的市場，需要我們尤其謹慎。
(本文作者：Michelle Mai)
注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。
This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for September 29, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.
