Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for September 02, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for September 02, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trend Forecaster Bulletin” for September 02, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday August 29, 2008.

Stocks jumped Thursday with the Dow Jones industrial average gained 212 points or 1.85% and the S&P 500 index added 1.22%. As a matter of fact, Thursday’s trading action had proven the validity of the “massive rally” scenario that we’ve traced out in the previous “Trend Forecaster Bulletin” when we wrote that: “current price structure suggested that SPY had completed the near-term correction and is in an early stage of a new up-leg that points to a test of Friday’s high, about 129.50. This, if hurdle and sustain, will trigger a massive follow-through that has the potential propel prices into the 130.5-131 area.” As anticipated, the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) traded as high as 130.34 Thursday. Any call options traded could have earned at least 50% intraday.

Contributed to the overall optimism were a lower oil prices, a surprisingly strong reading on second-quarter economic growth, and a strong rally in the beaten down areas - both the financials and homebuilders added on to previous gains, up 4% and 5% respectively.

Chart 1.1 – SPDR Financial (daily).

Looking at the five-month daily chart of the SPDR Financial ETF (XLF), we can see that the stock rebound nicely after a test of support around the 19.50 area was met with a new wave of buying interest. This, in fact, was pretty consistent to the “range bounce” scenario that we’ve offered in the August 25 Market Outlook when we said that: “XLF now shows a trading range, with support above 19.50 and resistance around 23… it’s still short-term oversold. So, we should expect a retest of resistance around the 23 level soon.”

In merely 3 sessions, we’ve traded from the bottom to the middle of the four-week trading range. While the near-term outlook remains bullish, our proprietary overbought/oversold indicator is starting to warn us that the rebound from August 20 low at 19.61 is near completion. So, it wouldn’t surprise us to see some sort of pullback consolidations in the days ahead.

Thursday’s massive rally had pushed the S&P 500 index slightly above the important sentiment 1300 level.

Chart 1.2 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

The main event here is a strong breakout above the 50-day moving average. This is bullish. In addition, the short-term stochastic indicator also strengthens the bull case as it cross above the signal line today. Right now, follow-through is the key. The bulls need to push prices above August 11 high at 1313.15 soon or we’ll be facing a retest of the 1260 level.

In summary: while Thursday’s trading is bullish and suggesting further short-term gains is likely. However, heading into the long weekend holiday, we should expect some sorts of profit taking efforts. So, there is a pretty good chance that we’ll have a choppy tape tomorrow.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年8月29日(週五)的市場技術分析。

週四美股大漲，道瓊斯工業平均指數攀升212點或1.85%，標普500指數勁升1.22%。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢證實了我們在昨天的 “Trend Forecaster Bulletin” 中提出的“強力上攻”判斷的有效性，我們當時寫到：“目前的價格形態預示著SPY已經完成了近期回調，正處在新一輪上漲趨勢的初期，上方目標是對上週五高點的測試，大約129.50美元。如果順利攻克這一阻力，激發的強勁上攻動能將把價格送至130.5-131美元的區域。”恰如我們所料，昨天SPDR S&P 500(SPY)盤中最高點為130.34美元。昨天所有交易的看漲期權回報率至少達到50%。

導致昨天市場出現樂觀情緒的因素主要有三個，一是油價下跌，二是第二季度經濟增速意外出現大幅向上修正，三是一些重跌板塊強勁上揚，金融股和地產股在前一天上漲的基礎上昨天分別大漲4%和5%。

圖1.1 SPDR Financial ETF(日線圖)

從上面SPDR Financial ETF(XLF)跨度為5個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，這只ETF在測試19.50美元區域附近的支撐時迎來新的做多興趣，出現良好反彈。事實上，XLF 這一走勢同我們在8月25日的市場前瞻中提出的“區間反彈”判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到：“XLF現在形成了一個交易區間，支撐在19.50美元，阻力大約在23美元……短期內也已經超賣，因此我們預計該ETF很快就會重新測試23美元附近的阻力位。”

僅僅經過3個交易日，XLF就從交易區間的底部來到了中線附近。儘管它近期走勢依然看漲，不過從我們的超買/超賣指標來看，XLF從19.61美元的8月20日低點開始的反彈行情可能已經接近尾聲，因此未來數天出現一定的回調整理行情是不足為奇的。

週四大盤的強力上攻使得標普500指數小幅站上1300的心理關口。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普昨天的走勢意義最重大的一點是強力突破50日均線，這是一個看漲信號，同時短期隨機指標從下上交信號線，也強化了上漲的概率。目前漲勢延續的可能性最大，不過多頭需要很快將價格拉升至8月11日高點(1313.15點)上方，否則還會重新測試1260點的支撐。

總結：週四大盤的走勢是看漲的，意味著短期內有可能進一步上攻。不過由於馬上就是一個為期三天的長週末，我們預計今天會出現一定的獲利回吐盤。因此今天大盤強烈震盪的可能性很大。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for August 29, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.