Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for August 01, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for August 01, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trend Forecaster Bulletin” for August 01, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday July 31, 2008.

Yesterday we’ve said that: “unless there is a headline that everyone recognizes as bearish, the path with least resistance is to the upside.” As anticipated, market added on to previous gains with the Dow Jones industrial gained 186 points or 1.6% to finish at 11583.

The main event in Wednesday trading was that we’ve finally had a day when oil and stocks are moved in the same direction. Crude prices rose $4.58 to settle at $126.77 per barrel Wednesday after a government oil supply report showed a surprise decline in the nation’s gasoline stockpile.

The rebound in oil prices helped the oil service sector make a 5.7% advance – its best one day gain in 8 years.

Chart 1.1 – Oil Service HOLDRS (daily).

Looking at the five-month daily chart of the Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH), we can see that the sector is currently undergoing a recovery rally, which began from the massive oversold levels and was triggered by the surprise jumped in crude’s prices. Also, noticing the “Trend Forecaster” bullish signal on July 24. Our near-term work on the sectors is telling us to look for a thrust into the area of the first overhead resistance line about 204, and then all the way to 210 next. Immediate support is about 187. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below this level can wreck the near-term bullish set-up.

Despite crude’s jumped, the board market S&P 500 index climbed 1.6% to settle at 1284.

Chart 1.2 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

As you can see from the above chart, there is currently a test of the important 1290 level. In fact, Wednesday’s trading action had confirmed the validity of the “bullish breakout” scenario that we’ve offered right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “the S&P closed above the important resistance at 1260. This makes the July 15 low, about 1200, looks like a firmer bottom than a few days ago. Right now we’re looking for a hurdle of the 20-day moving average, about 1265 now, then a test of last week’s high, about 1290. This, if taken out, will eventually give way to a test of the important 1300 level.” And we, therefore, see no reason to abandon the working “test of the important 1300 level” hypothesis – at least for the time being.

From a longer term perspective, Wednesday’s impressive advance had helped setting the stage for a strong rally that could see the index rise to 1325-1350.

In summary: the market is in a middle of a summer rally. Although give the massive back to back advance, expect some sorts of consolidations in Thursday trading session ahead of a thrust above S&P 1300.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年7月31日(週四)的市場技術分析。

昨天我們說到：“除非有大的利空消息出台，今日大盤阻力最小的方向仍是向上。”恰如我們所料，昨天美股延續了前一天的漲勢，道瓊斯工業平均指數大漲186點或1.6%，收於11583點。

週三行情很重要的一點是，終於又出現了油價和股市同方向運動的局面。由於政府石油供給報告顯示美國汽油庫存意外出現下滑，昨天原油價格大漲4.58美元，收於每桶126.77美元。

油價的反彈使得石油服務板塊暴漲5.7%，為8年來最大的單日漲幅。

圖1.1 Oil Service HOLDRS(日線圖)

在上面Oil Service HOLDRS(OIH)跨度為5個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，目前石油服務板塊正在從極度超賣的局面出現報復性反彈，刺激因素則是原油價格的意外飆升。同時注意到，我們的“Trend Forecaster” 在7月24日發出了看漲信號。我們預計板塊近期有可能首先攻佔204美元左右的第一道上方阻力，然後直奔210美元區域。緊鄰支撐位大約在187美元。在目前關頭，只有堅定跌破這一位置才能逆轉近期看漲的態勢。

儘管油價大漲，昨天標普500指數仍攀升1.6%，收於1284點。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

從上面的圖形我們可以看到，目前標普正在測試1290點的重要阻力。事實上，昨天標普的走勢確認了我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的“向上突破”判斷的有效性，我們當時寫到：“標普收盤站上了1260點的重要阻力位。這使得1200點左右的7月15日低點相比幾天前看起來更像一個堅實的底部。目前我們關注20日均線的阻力，大約1265點，然後就是對上周高點的測試，大約1290點。如果突破上周高點，將最終奠定測試1300點重要心理關口的基礎。”至少就目前而言我們的判斷是有效的。從更長期來看，週三的大漲為指數攻向1325-1350點的區域打下了基礎。

總結：目前股市正處在一輪夏季攻勢的中間。儘管連續兩天大漲，我們預計標普在站上1300點之前，週四可能會出現一波回調整理行情。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for July 31, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.