Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” for July 01, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

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This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for July 01, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday June 30, 2008.

Stocks ended lower Friday, extending Thursday massive sell-off amid another record-high energy prices. For the day, the Dow lost 106 points to finish at 11346 – a new 21-month low. It worth notice that, the blue-chip index had briefly crossed into bear market territory after dropping 20% from last autumn high.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of Aecom Technology Corp (ACM) jumped more than 5% Friday on about 10 times the daily average volume. Just so that you know, ACM was featured in our June 26 “Swing trader bulletin” as a potential buy candidate.

Chart 1.1 – Aecom Technology Corp (daily).

Current trading action indicated that ACM had established a near-term pullback low at the area of the March trend-line, and is ready for a retest of the June high at 34.50. This, if hurdle and sustain, might trigger a meaningful follow-through that has the potential propel prices into the all-time high recorded last October at 38.25. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below last Thursday low at 30.25 will begin to compromise the near-term bullish outlook.

Regarding to energy, U.S. light crude for August delivery reached a record high of $142.60 a barrel before pulling back to settle at $140.21 a barrel, up 57 cents.

Chart 1.2 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Price printed a bearish topping tail candlestick on the daily chart. In addition, the stochastic is also trending below its signal, indicating a bearish trend. This relationship leads us to suspect that oil had established a significant near-term high. That’s being said, current price structure is pointing toward a retest of the massive 2-conjoining supports – the June’s bullish breakout gap and the 50-day moving average. A decline below 136 will confirm this. Immediate resistance is at the area of Friday high, about 142.60. This, if taken out, will increase the odds for a test of the important sentiment level at 150.

As it was the case in the past couple of weeks, the market has a hard time moving forward whenever oil is up and Friday was no exception. Crude’s jumped pushed the S&P lower, down about 5 points or 0.37% to 1278.

Chart 1.3 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

Looking at the seven-month daily chart, we can see that that the market had reached the 2008 bottom for the third time - first January, then March, and now June. Not only that this is a pretty strong support, the On-Balance-Volume, or OBV, indicator suggests that there is a pretty good chance that we’re setting up for a counter trend rebound. A sustain advance above Friday high at 1289.45 will confirm this.

In summary: while the dominant trend remains weak, the near-term technical outlook suggests that the market is setting up for a nice counter trend rally, which might last from 5 to 10 trading days.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月30日(週一)的市場技術分析。

由於能源價格再創新高，美股經過上週四的暴跌之後，上週五繼續下挫。當日收盤道指下跌106點，收於11346點的21個月新低。值得注意的是，道指從去年秋季高點下跌20%以後，已經暫時進入熊市領地。

儘管大盤全線下挫，上週五工程和咨詢服務供應商Aecom Technology Corp.(ACM)以大約10倍於均值的成交量大漲5%以上。我們最早在6月26日的Swing trader bulletin對該股作出了買入推薦。

圖1.1 Aecom Technology Corp(日線圖)

從目前的價格走勢來看，ACM回調至3月份開始的上升趨勢線區域之後，已經形成了一個近期低點，並準備重新測試34.50美元的6月高點。如果成功克服這一阻力，將激發一輪意義重大的漲勢，將價格推向去年10月份創出的歷史高點、38.25美元。在當前形勢下，只有堅定跌破30.25美元的上週四低點才能逆轉近期看漲的態勢。

能源方面，上週五紐約商業交易所8月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格再創每桶142.60美元的歷史新高，收盤回撤至每桶140.21美元，上漲57美分。

圖1.2 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

油價在日線圖上收出了一根看跌的長上影線燭形。另外，隨機指標正在信號線下方運行，也意味著下跌的趨勢。綜合這兩點來判斷，我們懷疑原油已經形成了一個重要的近期高點。由此看來，目前的價格形態正指向對6月份向上突破缺口和50日均線的雙重支撐位的測試。如果油價跌破136美元，將確認這一走勢。緊鄰阻力位在上週五高點區域，大約142.60美元。如果這一阻力被攻破，將增加測試150美元重要心理關口的幾率。

過去幾周以來，只要油價上漲，股市就會步履維艱，上週五也不例外。原油的攀升推低了標普，下跌大約5個點或0.37%，收於1278點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

在上面跨度為7個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，大盤已經第三次下探2008年底部，第一次是是1月份，第二次是3月份。這一低點是一個非常強大的支撐，而且從平衡交易量指標(OBV)指標來看，標普很可能馬上出現一輪逆勢反彈行情。如果指數有效站上1289.45點的上週五高點，將對此作出確認。

總結：儘管主導趨勢依然很疲軟，但近期技術面顯示大盤已經準備好出現一輪較大的逆勢反彈，或持續5到10個交易日。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。