Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” for June 30, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday June 27, 2008.

Stocks stumble out of gate Thursday with the Dow Jones Industrials Average dropped to a new 52-week low amid a record high energy prices. Crude oil jumped above $140 a barrel to a record $140.05 before slipping back to $139.64, a new closing high. The jump came as Libya threatened to cut output and the president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, said crude may reach $170 by the summer because of the falling dollar.

All ten of the major economic sectors finished sharply lower. Large-cap tech names were among the session’s worst performers with shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) falling 13.3% to $123.46. The company disappointed investors by reporting earnings per share results that were a penny shy of the quarterly consensus estimate. Speaking of tech, Thursday’s trading action was pretty consistent to the bearish comment that we’ve offered in the previous “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” when we wrote that: “given the lousy Wednesday after-hour trading action, there is a pretty good chance that we’re setting up for another weak-bull shake-out…Again, keep an eye on Tuesday low at 46.41. This, if taken out, will trigger all sorts of stops and increase the odds for a retest of the April’s bullish breakaway gap around the 45.50 level.” As anticipated, the NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQQ) fell more than 4% Thursday, slipping below the minor support at 46.41 to close in the vicinity of the April’s bullish breakaway gap. Any puts options traded could have earned at least 200% intraday.

The only stocks in the market that showed any gains were selected commodities stocks like James River Coal Company (JRCC) - up 2.49% to 55.26. As a matter of fact, if you’ve purchase the stock since profile in our March 26 “Swing trader bulletin”, you could have sit on more than 230% gains right now.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

Chart 1.1 – Dow Jones industrial average (daily).

Yesterday we’ve said that: “current price structure suggests that there is a higher than average odds that the Dow is setting up for a massive shakeout.” The blue-chips index broke down decisively below the critical support at the area of January-March low on increasing volume. This is very bad though it was expected so there was no surprise. In short, Thursday trading action is outright bearish and suggesting further short-term weaknesses is likely.

Chart 1.2 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

Looking at the five-month daily chart, we can see that that there is currently a battling at the critical support in the vicinity of the March’s low. As a matter of fact, Thursday trading action had confirmed the validity of the “retest of March low” scenario that we’ve offered right here a couple days ago when we wrote that: “right now, the most obvious level to watch is the March low, around 1275. We’ll be looking for attempts to push prices back down into this area. If those attempts fail to gain much traction, then the odds for recovery rally, which might last 2 to 5 trading weeks, improve markedly.” So, at this moment, we see no reason to abandon this working hypothesis.

In summary: needless to repeat, Thursday’s massive sell-off is super negative. So, is this the bottom that we’ve been waiting for? The answer is NO. For the final shakeout, we’d like to see the S&P undercut its March low on explosive downside volume, something like the January lows. In short, while Thursday trading action had the characteristic of a near-term selling climax, do not confuse it with the final capitulation of the bear market.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月5日(週三)的市場技術分析。

週四美股開盤後一路狂跌，道瓊斯工業平均指數跌至52周新低，同時能源價格創出新高。原油價格盤中一度站上每桶140美元，創出140.05美元的歷史記錄，收盤小幅回落至139.64美元，創收盤新高。原油價格的飆升主要有兩個原因，一是利比亞威脅要降低產量，二是石油輸出國組織(OPEC) 主席表示，由於美元不斷貶值，今夏原油可能漲到170美元。

所有十大經濟板塊均大幅低收。大型科技股跌得最慘，Research in Motion(RIMM)股價跳水13.3%至123.46美元。RIM公佈的季度業績每股盈利低於市場平均預期1美分。說到科技股，昨天的走勢同我們在昨天的Cubes Speculator Bulletin中作出的看跌評論非常一致，我們當時寫道：“從週三盤後糟糕的行情來看，很有可能即將出現一波清除浮多的震倉行情。請關注46.41美元的週二低點。如果這一位置失守，將觸發大量止損，從而增加重新測試4月份向上跳空缺口的可能性，大約45.50美元。”恰如我們所料，週四NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQQ)重跌4%以上，跌破46.41美元的次要支撐位，收於4月份跳空缺口附近。昨天交易的QQQQ看跌期權收益率至少為200%。

昨天大盤唯一上漲的股票便是個別大宗商品股，比如James River Coal Company(JRCC)上漲2.49%，收於55.26美元。事實上，如果你在我們3月26日Swing trader bulletin對該股作出推薦後買進，目前你的回報率已經超過230%。

再來看看各大股指的情況：

圖1.1 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

昨天我們寫道：“目前的價格形態意味著道指很有可能即將出現一波強力震倉行情。”昨天道指放量暴跌，有力擊穿1月和3月低點區域的關鍵支撐位。這是非常糟糕的，儘管我們早有心理準備，並不為此感到驚訝。簡而言之，週四的行情極端不利，意味著短期內可能還將進一步下跌。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

在上面跨度為5個月的日線圖中我們可以看到，多空雙方正在3月低點附近的關鍵支撐處展開爭奪。事實上，週四的走勢證實了我們數天前提出的“重新測試3月低點”的判斷，我們當時提到：“目前最應該關注的位置是3月低點，大約1275點。我們預計標普有可能會嘗試向這一區域回歸。如果向下動能不足，那麼出現一輪持續2到5周的反彈行情的可能性將大大增加。”因此在這個時候，我們沒有理由放棄這一有效判斷。

總結：毋庸贅言，週四的暴跌行情超級負面。那麼這是否就是我們一直等待的底部呢？答案是否定的。關於最後的震倉行情，我們預計標普可能會以天量底切3月低點。簡而言之，儘管週四的行情有超短期恐慌性拋盤的特點，但是不要將其同熊市中最後的投降式拋售相混淆。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。