Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for June 27, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 27, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday June 26, 2008.

Yesterday we’ve wrote that: “unless there is something that everyone recognizes as extremely bearish, the near-term technical outlook favors a recovery rally.” As anticipated, stocks ended Wednesday session with a decent-sized gain after some volatile actions following the Fed’s decision to leave the short-term rate unchanged.

Eight of the ten economic sectors advanced. The tech sector led the way with the NASDAQ 100 index up 1.58% thanks to strength in large-cap names. Speaking of tech, Wednesday trading action was pretty consistent to the “recovery rally” that we’ve traced out in the previous “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” when we wrote that: “current price structure is indicating that QQQQ had established an important near-term low. There is a pretty good chance that we’re setting up for a recovery rally, which could take place as soon as tomorrow.” The NASDAQ 100 ETF climbed to a gain of 2.5% at its high of the day before giving up some of the early gain to settle the day up 1.6%. Any calls options traded could have earned at least 50% intraday.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

Chart 1.1 – Dow Jones industrial average (daily).

Looking at the seven-month daily chart, we can see that there is currently a battling at a potential triple bottom in the vicinity of the March’s low. Also notice that the blue-chips index was much oversold since late May. This is very bearish though it’s also indicating that the current pullback is excessive. In short, current price structure suggests that there is a higher than average odds that the Dow is setting up for a massive weak bull’s shakeout follows by a snap back rally. At this moment, it’s impossible to know for sure how far the shakeout is going to be though the more energy in the shakeout, the stronger the rally.

Chart 1.2 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

We’ve offered right here in the previous Market Outlook that: “the spinning top candlestick suggests a hold here. In addition, the short-term stochastic is also indicating an oversold condition. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see a modest lift into the area of the 20-day moving average.” As predicted, the S&P 500 rallied modestly, climbed as much as 1.4% before sellers stepped in and pushes prices down a bit. Notice that volume was actually up today. As a matter of fact, today bullish reversal leads us to suspect that the market is in a process of building an intermediate term bottom. A walk above the 20-day moving average, now about 1350, will confirm this. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below Tuesday low at 1304 can wreck the near-term bullish technical set-up.

In summary: S&P’s bullish reversal pattern looks pretty encouraging. It leads us to believe that the May-June correction might have come to an end and the market is setting up for a modest oversold rally going into July 4^th Independent Day. One warning: as noted above, watch-out for a potential weak-bull shakeout prior to the bounce.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月26日(週四)的市場技術分析。

昨天我們曾寫道：“除非消息面有重大利空出台，近期技術形態依然支持一輪上漲行情。”恰如我們所料，週三股市在聯儲公佈維持短期利率不變的消息後一度出現震盪，但最後收盤出現較大幅度上漲。

10大板塊中8個板塊出現上漲，其中科技股尤其是大型科技股領漲，納斯達克100指數走高1.58%。說到科技板塊，昨天的走勢同我們在昨天的 Cubes Speculator Bulletin提出的“回暖”判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到：“目前的價格形態顯示QQQQ已經形成了一個重要的近期低點。科技股很有可能已經準備好出現一波反彈，也許最快明天就能看到。”昨天NASDAQ 100 ETF盤中最高攀升2.5%，收盤漲幅有所回落，高收1.6%。昨天所有交易的看漲期權收益率至少都在50%以上。

再來看看各大股指的情況：

圖1.1 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

在上面跨度為7個月的日線圖中，我們可以看到道指正在3月低點附近展開一番爭奪，有可能形成一個“三重底”的形態。我們還可以注意到，自從5月底以來指數一直嚴重超賣。這是非常不利的信號，儘管同時意味著最近的回調有些過頭了。總而言之，目前的價格形態顯示，道指很有可能先出現一輪清除弱手的震倉行情，然後迅速反彈。目前我們無法確知震倉行情將持續多久，不過震倉的動能越強，接下來的反彈便越迅猛。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提到：“紡錘燭形意味著指數暫時企穩。另外，短期隨機指標同樣顯示超賣局面。因此標普出現一輪小幅反彈至20日均線區域的行情是不足為奇的。”恰如我們所料，昨天標普500小幅上揚，盤中最高漲幅曾達到1.4%，最後空頭入場、漲幅出現回落。注意到昨天量能有所放大。事實上，昨天的止跌回升走勢讓我們懷疑大盤是否正在構築一個中期底部。如果接下來標普站上目前位於1350點的20日均線，將確認這一走勢。在目前關頭，只有堅定跌破1304點的週二低點，才能逆轉短期看漲的技術形態。

總結：標普的反轉走勢非常激動人心。這讓我們相信5、6月份的回調行情可能已經到頭，市場將在7月4日“獨立日”之前出現一波溫和的超賣反彈。提醒大家一下，請注意在反彈之前可能出現清除弱手的震倉行情。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。