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Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday June 25, 2008.

As we’ve predicted right here in the previous Market Outlook: “the near-term technical outlook remains very weak and suggesting further short-term lost is likely” stocks ended lower Tuesday after a volatile session in which a rebound in the financial sector helped partially offset some disappointment over weak consumer sentiment, falling home prices.

Financial stocks outperformed the market Tuesday with the Philadelphia bank index, or BKX, gained 2.5% on speculation that HSBC Holdings (HBC) would make an offer to acquire UBS (UBS).

Chart 1.1 – Philadelphia bank index (daily).

Looking at the five-month daily chart, we can see that the sector is deeply oversold since late May. However, current price structure suggests that the sector had established a significant near-term low. In addition, the positive divergence on the moving-average-convergence-divergence histogram, or MACDH, indicator also argues in favor of a recovery rally into the 65 area. This, if hurdle and sustain, will increase the probability for a retest of key resistance around the 75 level. In short, the near-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below today low at 60.

Chart 1.2 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

Yesterday we’ve said that: “we’re looking for attempts to push prices back down into the area of March low. If those attempts fail to gain much traction, then the odds for recovery rally, which might last 2 to 5 trading weeks, improve markedly.” As anticipated, the market tested the 1300 level today. The “spinning top” candlestick suggests a hold here. In addition, the short-term stochastic is also indicating an oversold condition. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see a modest lift into the area of the 20-day moving average, about 1350 now. This, if hurdle and sustain, will turn the short-term trend up and increase the odds for a retest of May high - though this is not expected tomorrow.

In summary: unless there is something that everyone recognizes as extremely bearish, the near-term technical outlook favors a recovery rally.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月25日(週三)的市場技術分析。

昨天我們在市場前瞻中提到：“近期技術面依然非常疲軟，意味著短期內可能還將繼續下跌。”恰如我們所料，昨天美股大幅震盪之後小幅低收。金融板塊的反彈部分抵消了消費者情緒和房價下跌帶來的負面影響。

由於市場傳言匯豐控股(HBC)可能要收購瑞銀(UBS)，昨天金融股表現強於大盤，費城銀行指數大漲2.5%。

圖1.1 費城銀行指數(日線圖)

在上面跨度為5個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，5月份以來銀行板塊一直處於深度超賣。不過目前的價格形態顯示板塊已經形成了一個重要的近期低點。另外，MACDH指標出現正面背離，意味著板塊有可能反彈至65點區域。如果指數有效站上這一阻力，將增加重新測試75點附近關鍵阻力的可能性。簡而言之，除非收盤跌破60點的昨日低點，近期走勢依然看漲。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天我們提到：“我們預計市場有可能下探3月低點區域。如果下探的嘗試動力不足，那麼出現為其2到5周反彈行情的可能性將大大增加。”恰如我們所料，昨天標普測試了1300點的支撐位。昨天標普收出一根“紡錘”(spinning Top)燭線，說明暫時企穩。另外，短期隨機指標同樣顯示超賣局面，因此，指數溫和上行至20日均線區域(大約1350點)是不足為奇的。如果有效站上這一位置，短期趨勢將轉跌為升，並增加測試5月高點的可能性。

總結：除非消息面出現重大利空，大盤的近期技術面依然支持一波反彈行情。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。