Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 25, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for June 25, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” for June 25, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday June 24, 2008.

Stocks struggle Monday as investors eyed ongoing problems in the financials and higher energy prices. Crude oil price was very volatile as traders weighed a possible disruption in Nigerian supply with news that Saudi Arabia will boost daily output to 9.7 million barrels from the current 9 million barrels. U.S. light crude oil for August delivery gained $1.38 to settle at $136.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The rally in oil prices boosted energy stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Murphy Oil (MUR) and Encana Corp (ECA) – all up about 3-5%, as well as coal stocks like James River Coal Company (JRCC) and Fording Canadian Coal (FDG). Just so that you know, initially profile in our March 26 and May 5 “Swing trader bulletin”, JRCC and FDG had gained about 277% and 47% respectively.

As it was the case in the past couple of months, financial stocks were under selling pressure Monday after Goldman Sachs (GS) downgraded the sector to Underperform. The Philadelphia bank index, or BKX, lost about 3% with new lows in AIG (AIG) Citi Group (C) Bank of America (BAC) and Merrill Lynch (MER) – all down about 4-6%.

As goes the bank, so goes the tape – so to speak. The stock market, however, managed to settle the session near the unchanged mark, thanks to strength in the energy stocks, which had helped offset the financials’ weakness.

Chart 1.1 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

Yesterday we’ve said that: “while the near-term technical outlook remains weak, our proprietary overbought/oversold indicator is fast approaching an oversold territory, so we should be facing at least a short-term consolidation, which could last about 2 to 5 trading sessions.“ As anticipated, the S&P was basing sideway near low today as the market works off the oversold condition. Overall, it was a low volatility, low volume day, but regardless, market breadth was largely negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners three to two on volume of 680 million shares. And the number of stocks at new lows at the NYSE was the highest since the March bottom. This is outright bearish. However, from a contrarian point of view, it’s also a sign that a selling climax is probably not very far away.

Right now, the most obvious level to watch is the March low, around 1275. We’ll be looking for attempts to push prices back down into this area. If those attempts fail to gain much traction, then the odds for recovery rally, which might last 2 to 5 trading weeks, improve markedly.

In summary: the near-term technical outlook remains very weak and suggesting further short-term lost is likely. However, tomorrow the FOMC meeting begins with an interest rate decision due out at 2:15 Wednesday afternoon. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see the holding pattern – stocks drifting sideway on low volume – carries on until Wednesday’s FED announcement.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月24日(週二)的市場技術分析。

金融公司麻煩不斷、能源價格繼續攀升，週一美股蹣跚而行。原油價格大幅震盪，原因是交易者在利好和利空消息之間搖擺不定，利空消息是尼日利亞石油供給可能出現中斷，利好消息是沙特阿拉伯將把石油供應從目前的每日900萬桶提高至970萬桶。昨天紐約商業交易所8月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格上漲1.38美元，收於每桶136.74美元。

油價的上漲推高了能源股，埃克森美孚(XOM)、雪佛龍(CVX)、Murphy Oil(MUR)和Encana Corp(ECA)等股票全部上漲3%～5%，也包括James River Coal Company(JRCC)和Fording Canadian Coal(FDG)等煤炭股。自從我們分別在3月26日和5月5日的Swing trader bulletin中作出推薦以來，JRCC和FDG分別上漲了277%和47%。

受高盛(GS)將金融板塊評級調降至“低於大市”影響，同過去幾個月一樣，週一金融股繼續遭遇賣壓。費城銀行指數大跌約3%，其中美國國際集團(AIG)、花旗集團(C)、美國銀行(BAC)和美林(MER)均下跌4%-6%，創出新低。

俗話說，銀行往東，大盤不往西。不過能源股的強勢抵消了金融股的不利，大盤成功收於平盤價位。

圖1.1 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天我們說道：“儘管近期指數形態依然疲軟，我們的超買/超賣指標正在快速接近超賣領域，因此接下來至少會出現一波短期整理行情，可能會持續2 到5個交易日。”恰如我們所料，昨天標普在前一交易日低點附近橫向整理，消化超賣局面。總的來說，昨天是個低振幅、低成交量的交易日，儘管如此，市場寬度卻非常負面。紐交所下跌股成交量與上升股成交量之比為3比2。另外紐交所創新低的股票數量為3月份市場見底以來最多。這是非常不利的。不過從反向操作的角度來看，這同樣意味著恐慌性拋盤已經為時不遠了。

目前最應該關注的位置是3月低點，大約1275點。我們預計市場有可能下探這一區域。如果下探的嘗試動力不足，那麼出現為其2到5周反彈行情的可能性將大大增加。

總結：近期大盤的技術面依然非常疲軟，意味著短期內還有可能進一步下跌。不過，今天聯邦公開市場委員會(FMOC)將召開議息會議，並在週三下午2點15分公佈結果。因此，我們預計大盤很有可能在週三聯儲公告出來前按兵不動，即地量盤整。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。