Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for June 24, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 24, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday June 23, 2008.

Stocks stumble out of gate Friday amid renewed worries about the credit market crisis and inflation. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average lost around 220 points, or 1.8%, closing at its lowest point since March 10. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 1.9% to close at its lowest point in nearly three months.

Rumor that Merrill Lynch (MER) might issue a profit warning sent financial stocks lower with the Philadelphia bank index, or BKX, lost 1.18%.

Chart 1.1 – Philadelphia bank index (monthly).

Looking at the twelve-year monthly chart of the BKX, we can see that there is currently a retest of the 1998-2002 low around the 60 level. Not only that this is a very strong support, our proprietary “Trend Forecaster” overbought/oversold indicator is also fast approaching an oversold territory, so it wouldn’t surprise us to see a modest lift into quarter end. Key resistance is about 75.

Let take a look at the major indices:

Chart 1.2 – Dow Jones industrial average (daily).

Once again, the blue-chips index rallied into the area of the May channel’s upper border earlier last week, and once again it failed there. All the while, our proprietary “Trend Forecaster” indicator remained bearish, so there was no surprise. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is the March 10 low at 11731. If this level gives away, we would expect an acceleration of this decline, perhaps into the area of January low, about 11634. Immediate resistance is about 12300.

Chart 1.3 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

Similar to the Dow, the S&P plunged through the important support around the 1330 level after the test of the May channel’s upper border earlier last week was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. And all the while, our proprietary “Trend Forecaster” indicator remained bearish, so that was not a big surprise.

Technically speaking, recent violation of the important sentiment 1325 level is very bearish and bringing the yearly low of 1275 into view. However, while the near-term technical outlook remains weak, our proprietary overbought/oversold indicator is fast approaching an oversold territory, so we should be facing at least a short-term consolidation, which could last about 2 to 5 trading sessions. Immediate resistance is about 1370. At this juncture, only a sustain walk above this level can wreck the near-team bearish bias.

In summary: all we have, so far, are sell signals. So we’d continue to look for lower prices. As noted above, if the Dow slips below the March low, the selling should accelerate, perhaps finally reaching the selling-climax condition that can lead to a tradable bottom. One warning: the market is getting very close to an oversold condition, so do not get caught going long into a sucker or dead-cat bounce. For a significant or final bottom of the bear market, we need to see a turn around in the financial stocks and that doesn’t seem likely in a next couple of weeks.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月23日(週一)的市場技術分析。

上週五，市場對信貸市場危機和通脹的憂慮再度升溫，美股開盤後大幅下挫。收盤道指大跌約220點或1.8%，收於3月10日來最低點位。標普500指數重跌1.9%，收於近3個月來最低。

有傳言稱美林(MER)可能發佈盈利預警，金融股遭遇賣壓，費城銀行指數下跌1.18%。

圖1.1 費城銀行指數(日線圖)

在上面銀行指數跨度為12年的月線圖上我們可以看到，目前指數正在測試1998年-2002年的低點，大約60點。這是一個非常有力的支撐，而且我們繪製的Trend Forecaster超買/超賣指標正在快速接近超賣區域，因此本季末出現一波溫和上揚行情是不足為奇的。關鍵阻力位大約在75點。

再來看看各大股指的情況：

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

上周，道指再次反彈至5月份開始的下降通道的上方邊線，而且再次上攻失敗。因為我們的Trend Forecaster指標一直顯示看跌，因此出現這一走勢並不奇怪。目前最應該關注的位置是3月10日的低點，11731點。如果這一支撐失守，我們預計跌勢會出現加速，有可能跌入1月低點區域，大約11634點。緊鄰阻力位大約在12300點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

同道指類似，標普上周初在測試5月開始的下降通道的上方邊線時迎來新的賣壓，強力擊穿1330點的重要支撐位。另外，我們的Trend Forecaster指標仍然看跌，因此這一走勢並不算特別意外。

從技術上講，標普最近擊穿1325點重要心理點位的走勢非常不利，使得1275點的一年來低點近在咫尺。不過，儘管近期指數形態依然疲軟，我們的超買/超賣指標正在快速接近超賣領域，因此接下來至少會出現一波短期整理行情，可能會持續2到5個交易日。緊鄰阻力位大約在1370點。在目前關頭，只有有效站上這一位置才能逆轉近期看跌的態勢。

總結：到目前為止我們看到的都是賣出的信號，因此我們繼續看跌大盤。正如上面提到的，如果道指跌破3月低點，做空動能將會加速，有可能最終出現恐慌性拋盤，從而砸出可買入的底部。提醒一下，目前市場已經非常接近超賣狀態，反彈出現的時候不要盲目做多，以防被“死貓反彈”行情套牢。要斷定這一輪熊市出現重要或終極底部，我們需要看到金融股真正回暖。但是這一局面未來數周可能還看不到。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。