S&P in emerging double bottom

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday June 20, 2008.

Stocks closed slightly higher Thursday with The Dow Jones industrial average gained about 34 points or 03% to 12063. Contributed to the overall optimism was a lower energy prices. Crude oil prices slumped nearly $5 a barrel on news out of China that the Chinese government will lift fuel subsidies on gas and diesel – a move that could curb demand in the country and lower prices globally.

Crude’s pullback had helped put in a bid in shares of airlines, truckers and railroads. The Dow Jones Transportation average gained 3.4% as a result.

transport_20080619

Chart 1.1 – Dow Jones transport average (daily).

Looking at the seven-month daily chart, we can see that the transport had established a significant short-term low at the area of the January trend-line. It also worth notice that the on-balance-volume, or OBV, indicator is in a leading divergence. This is very bullish and suggesting that there is a pretty good chance that the all-time high recorded on May 19 at 5536.57 will be retested and exceeded in a very near future. In short, unless there is a close below June 12 low at 5031, the near-term outlook remains bullish.

Lower oil prices are really helping today. The board market S&P 500 index also closed a bit higher, up 0.4%, thanks to strength in financials and retails stocks.

sp500_20080619

Chart 1.2 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

Looking at the chart of the S&P, a case can be made that it has made a double bottom around the minor support at 1330. This, if true, could trigger a recovery rally into the area of the 2-conjoining resistance around the 1370 level. An upside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. Immediate support is at the area of today low, about 1330. As usual we must stress out that a close below this level will resume the May-June decline and hence, increase the odds for a retest of March low.

In summary: the market appears to have established a significant near-term low and is ready for a retest of the weekly high. However, tomorrow is the option expiration day and the upside could be limited to S&P 1350.

 

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)


Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

 

標普出現雙底跡象

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月20日(週五)的市場技術分析。

週四美股小幅高收,道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲大約34點或0.3%,收於12063點。導致市場總體樂觀情緒的是能源價格的大幅走低。昨天原油價格暴跌近每桶5美元,原因是中國政府宣佈降低對汽油和柴油的補貼,此舉可能抑制中國對石油的需求並降低全球油價。

原油價格的回調推高了航空股、貨運股和鐵路股。道瓊斯運輸平均指數大漲3.4%。

transport_20080619

圖1.1 道瓊斯運輸平均指數(日線圖)

在上面跨度為7個月的日線圖上我們可以看到,運輸板塊已經在1月份開始的上升趨勢線附近形成了一個重要低點。另外值得注意的是,平衡交易量指標 (OBV)出現看漲背離。這些都是看漲的信號,意味著板塊很有可能在最近測試或站上5月19日的歷史高點,5536.57點。總而言之,除非收盤跌破 5031點的6月12日低點,近期走勢依然看漲。

昨天油價的回調的確非常有利。受金融股和零售股走強的推動,標普500指數同樣小幅高收,上漲0.4%。

sp500_20080619

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

從標普的日線圖我們可以看到,指數在1330點的次要支撐處形成了一個雙底。如果這是一個真的雙底,有可能會激發一輪攻勢,將股指推向1370 點附近的雙重阻力位。如果今天標普繼續走高,將對此作出確認。緊鄰支撐位在昨日低點區域,大約1330點。我們必須再次強調,如果標普收盤跌破該支撐,將恢復5、6月份的下跌趨勢,並增加重新測試3月低點的幾率。

總結:大盤似乎已經形成了一個近期重要低點,準備好重新測試一周來高點。不過,今天是期權到期日,上漲空間將限制在標普1350點以下。

 

(本文作者:Michelle Mai)


﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱