Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 20, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for June 20, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday June 19, 2008.

Yesterday we’ve said that: “the S&P had established a significant high, just below 1370…the market could be in an early stage of a new down-leg.” Stocks stumbled out of gate Wednesday with the Dow closed at a 3-month low. Contributed to the overall pessimism were the continuing weakness in financials - one day after Goldman Sachs (GS) warned that U.S. banks may need to raise as much as $65 billion in additional capital, regional bank Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) said it’s going to raise $1 billion in fresh capital, sell $1 billion in assets and cut its quarterly dividend by 66% to $0.15 per share - and higher energy prices. Crude prices ended sharply higher Wednesday following a report that Nigerian oil workers are threatening to go on strike. U.S. crude for July delivery gained $2.67 to settle at $136.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude’s trading action had, in fact, confirmed the validity of the near-term “bullish outlook” that we’ve offered right here in the previous Market Outlook.

Regarding to energy, higher crude prices had helped to put in a bid in coal stocks. Shares of shares of James River Coal Company (JRCC) jumped almost 9% to $59.30 – a new all-time high. As a matter of fact, if you’ve purchased the stock since profiled in our March 26 “Swing trader bulletin“, you’d be sitting on about 260% gains right now.

Chart 1.1 – James River Coal Company (weekly).

Technically speaking, Wednesday’s upside breakout is very bullish. It had cleared key resistance at the area of 2006 high. Although seemingly overextended at the moment, expect the shares to draw in buyer in a pullback to key support around the 52 level.

Similar to JRCC, shares of Fording Canadian Coal (FDG) also printed a new all-time high today, up 4.41% to 90.84.

Chart 1.2 – Fording Canadian Coal (daily).

Initially profiled in our May 5 “Swing trader bulletin“, FDG had gained more than 42% and remain well position. Technically speaking, the near-term outlook remains promising with the price structure continue support the bull case. In short, while seemingly overextend at the moment, expect the stock to draw in buyer in a pullback to key support around the area of 20-day moving average, about 80 now.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

Chart 1.3 – Dow Jones industrial average (daily).

Looking at the five-month daily chart, we can see that the blue-chips index plunged through the minor support at last week’s low on increasing volume. This is bearish and suggesting a retest of key support at the area of March’s low, about 11700. Immediate resistance is about 12380. At this juncture, only a sustain close above this level can wreck the near-term bearish outlook.

Chart 1.4 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

As anticipated, the index pulled back to the minor support at the area of last week’s low after an attempt to rally at the beginning of the week was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. In addition, the stochastic had also crossed below the signal line today, implying a bearish trend. That’s being said, there is a higher than average odds that last week’s low will be taken out in a very near future. Immediate resistance is about 1370. At this juncture, only a sustain advance above this level can wreck the short-term bearish bias and argue for higher prices.

In summary: our near-term technical work is telling us to expect further weakness in the days ahead. However, as we’ve mentioned in the previous Market Outlook, this is expiration week, so we could be facing a lot of whipsaws before the recent lows get taken out. In short, expect volatility to increase dramatically into Friday expiration.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月19日(週四)的市場技術分析。

昨天我們曾提到：“標普已經形成了一個重要高點，略高於1370點……市場有可能處於一輪跌勢的初期。”恰如我們所料，昨天股市開盤走低，道指收於3個月來最低點。導致市場消極情緒的一個因素是金融股的持續走軟和能源價格繼續走高。此前一天，高盛(GS)發佈警告，認為美國銀行業需要繼續募資 650億美元，同時地區銀行Fifth Third Bancorp(FITB)也表示將集資10億美元、出售10億美元資產並削減季度派息66%至每股0.15美元。有報導稱尼日利亞工人發出罷工威脅，週三原油價格強勁飆升。紐約商業交易所7月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格大漲2.67美元，收於136.68美元。事實上，原油的走勢證實了我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的近期看漲判斷的有效性。

能源方面，油價走高推升了煤炭股。昨天James River Coal Company(JRCC)繼續暴漲近9%，收於59.30美元的歷史新高。事實上，如果你在我們3月26日的“Swing trader bulletin“中作出推薦後買入該股，現在已經穩獲大約260%的巨大收益。

圖1.1 James River Coal Company(日線圖)

從技術上講，週三的突破對後市非常有利，清除了2006年高點區域的關鍵阻力。儘管目前似乎有些超漲，我們預計股價在回調至52美元左右的關鍵支撐處將迎來買盤。

同JRCC類似，昨天Fording Canadian Coal(FDG)同樣再創歷史新高，大漲4.41%，收於90.84美元。

圖1.2 Fording Canadian Coal(日線圖)

自從我們最早在5月5日的“Swing trader bulletin“中作出推薦以來，FDG漲幅已經超過42%，而且仍有上漲空間。從技術上講，價格形態繼續指向上漲，近期走勢依然值得期待。總之，儘管目前似乎有些超漲，我們預計股價在回調至20日均線附近的關鍵支撐處(目前大約80美元)將迎來買盤。

再來看看各大股指的情形：

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

在上面跨度為5個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，昨天道指放量擊穿上周低點的次要支撐，這是一個看跌信號，意味著接下來可能出現測試3月低點區域關鍵支撐的走勢，大約11700點。緊鄰阻力位大約在12380點。在目前關頭，只有堅定站上該阻力才能逆轉近期看跌的態勢。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，標普在本周初上攻受阻、遭遇強勁拋盤之後，昨天繼續回調至上周低點區域的次要支撐位。另外，隨機指標昨天從上方同信號線相交，預示著下跌趨勢。由此看來，標普很有可能在非常短的時間內擊穿上周低點支撐。緊鄰阻力位大約在1370點。在目前關頭，只有有效站上該阻力才能逆轉短期看跌態勢並進一步走高。

總結：通過技術分析我們發現，大盤未來數天仍有下跌的要求。不過，恰如我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提到的，本週五是一個期權到期的“四重魔力日”，因此在近期低點最終失守之前，可能會出現強烈震盪的局面。總之，在週五的行情中大盤可能大幅震盪。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。