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This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 19, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

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Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday June 18, 2008.

As expected, stocks opened on a positive tone Tuesday as investors’ cheers lower energy prices and the better-than-expected earnings reports from Best Buy (BBY) and Goldman Sachs (GS). Things, however, turned sour after Goldman Sachs warned that the credit crisis won’t peak until early next year and its prediction that banks may have to raise another $65 billion in cash. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.9% while both of the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index and the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite slipped about 0.7%.

Regarding to energy, U.S. light crude oil for July delivery settled lower for the third day in a row, down 60 cents to $134.01 a barrel.

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Looking at the five-month daily chart, we can see that there is currently an overbought consolidation. While the action is bullish, we must wait for the market to works off the overbought condition completely before thinking about jumping back into the bullish bandwagon. In short, we could be facing further consolidation, which could take the form of backing and filling into a retest of June 5 high at 127.95, or it could simply move sideways, just like it did in the past couple of days, ahead of a thrust above Monday high at 138.69, on the way to the important sentiment 150 level. In either case, our near term technical work continues favor the bull’s case. At this juncture, only a close below June 4 low at 122 will begin to compromise the short-term positive bias.

While lower energy prices had helped to move the tape higher, ultimately weakness in the financials weighed everything down with the S&P 500 lost about 9 points to finish at 1350 - near session low.

Chart 1.2 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

Yesterday we’ve said that: “while the short-term trend is still pointing upward, there is a higher than average odds that the first test of resistance around the 1370 level could be met with a new wave of selling interest, which has the potential pushing prices below Thursday’s low at 1331.29. A decline below Monday low at 1352 will confirm this.” As anticipated, the board market index made an ugly U-turn today after an early attempt to take out the 1370 level was rejected. The action is bearish and suggesting that the next wave down has just begun. And we, therefore, see no reason to abandon the “retest of last week low” hypothesis. In short, the near term bias favors a break to the downside barring a close above 1370.

In summary: it seems to us that the S&P had established a significant high, just below 1370, today. That’s being said, the market could be in an early stage of a new down-leg. Although seemingly vulnerable for further short-term loss, the near-term trading action will be influenced by the quadruple witching expiration this Friday, so we could see more whipsaws before recent low get taken out.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月18日(週三)的市場技術分析。

未出意料，受能源價格走低和百思買(BBY)、高盛(GS)利好財報的推動，週二美股高開。但隨後形勢急轉直下，原因是高盛發佈警告，認為次貸危機的真正高潮要到明年上半年才會出現，並預測銀行業還需籌集資金650億美元。昨天收盤道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌0.9%，標普500指數和納斯達克綜合指數均下挫0.7%。

能源方面，昨天紐約商業交易所7月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格連續第三天回落，下跌60美分至每桶134.01美元。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

從上面跨度為5個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，目前油價進入了一輪超買整理行情。這一形態是看漲的，不過我們必須等待市場完全消化超買局面，才能重新看多油價。總而言之，原油可能還將繼續整理，並在整理形態中重新測試6月5日的高點，127.95美元，或者同過去幾個交易日一樣繼續橫向運行，然後攻佔138.69美元的週一高點，並進一步朝150美元的心理關口進軍。不論是哪一種可能，我們的短期技術分析結果依然持看漲的觀點。在目前關頭，只有收盤跌破122美元的6月4日低點，才可能對近期漲勢形成抑制。

能源價格走低助推了大盤，然而金融股的嚴重萎靡完全抵消了這一點，標普500指數下跌9個點，收於1350點的振幅低位。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天我們曾提到：“儘管短期趨勢仍指向上漲，但是指數很有可能在首次測試1370點的阻力位便遭遇一波新的賣盤，並可能將價格打壓至上週四低點，位於1331.29點。如果接下來指數跌破1352點的週一低點，將確認這一走勢。”恰如我們所料，昨天標普在測試1370點阻力失敗之後立即出現一個U形反轉，這一走勢是看跌的，意味著新一輪跌勢剛剛開始。因此，我們沒有理由放棄之前“重新測試上周低點”的判斷。總之，除非收盤站上1370點，標普近期走勢下挫的可能性要大一些。

總結：在我們看來，標普昨天形成了一個重要高點，略高於1370點。由此來看，市場可能處於一輪新跌勢的初期。儘管短期內大盤有下行的要求，不過近期行情可能會受到本週五“四重魔力日”的影響，也就是說，在跌破近期低點之前可能會有一番爭奪。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。