Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 18, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for June 18, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday June 17, 2008.

Stocks finished around the unchanged mark Monday as strength in financials offset weakness in the energy sector. U.S. light crude oil for July delivery fell 25 cents to settle at $134.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting an all-time trading high of $139.89 earlier.

Speaking of strength, shares of Titan Machinery Inc (TITN) jumped almost 11% Monday to 30.96 – a new all-time high – after the company boosted its earnings guidance for the full 2009 fiscal year. Just so that you know, initially profiled in our May 12 “Swing trader bulletin”, TITN gains more than 53% and remains well position.

Chart 1.1 - Titan Machinery Inc (daily).

As the “Trend Forecaster” overbought/oversold oscillator suggested, the stock took out the May’s high last week after the test of key support at the area of April’s high was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. Needless to repeat, the action is very bullish. However, price is well above the May channel’s upper border and must be considered short-term overextended at the moment. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see some backing and filling in the days ahead. Overall, we’re still bullish on TITN and expecting the stock to trend higher.

With regarding to financials, Lehman Brothers (LEH) reported a second quarter loss of $2.8 billion, or $5.14 per share – inline with its pre-announcement. The stock rose 5% for the day.

Chart 1.2 – Lehman Brothers (daily).

While today bullish trading action is impressive, it was no surprise to us because it was expected. As you can see, LEH had clawed its way across the May’s price channel to test the upper resistance line around the 29-30 level immediate followed the “Trend Forecaster” confirmed buy signal on June 12. As usual we must stress out that, while the short-term trend is still pointing up, the “Trend Forecaster” overbought/oversold oscillator’s fast approaching the overbought territory, there is a pretty good chance that the bears will put in a good fight around the 31 level.

From a longer term perspective, the stock must take out key resistance at the area of June 6 high, about 34.64, to turn the medium-term trend up and hence, trigger an even more important buy signal. In short, the near-term outlook remains positive barring a close below last Thursday’s low at 21.17.

Let’s take a look at the major index:

Last week, we’ve offered that “the market is pretty much oversold on a short-term basis…so there is a pretty good chance that we’ll see a retest of S&P’s 50-day moving average in the days ahead.” We’ve also noted in the previous Market Outlook that our proprietary Trading system – “Trend Forecaster” – is still on a buy signal. As anticipated, the S&P carved out a tradable bottom and has subsequently rallied about 30 points. Right now, the question is: “how far could the rally carry?”

To this question, we have a simple chart to follow.

Chart 1.3 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

As you can see, our proprietary “Trend Forecaster” overbought/oversold oscillator suggested that this rally is merely an oversold bounce. In addition, with price fast approaching our short-term target zone –the five-week falling channel’s upper border, about 1370 now - it wouldn’t surprise us to see some sorts of profit taking activities in the days ahead. That’s being said while the short-term trend is still pointing upward, there is a higher than average odds that the first test of resistance around the 1370 level could be met with a new wave of selling interest, which has the potential pushing prices below Thursday’s low at 1331.29. A decline below Monday low at 1352 will confirm this.

In summary: our near-term technical work on the S&P is currently suggesting that the index is setting up for a test of key resistance around the 1370 area follows by a retest of last Thursday’s low at 1331. In short, the oversold bounce from last week’s low is near completion.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月17日(週二)的市場技術分析。

昨天美股幾乎收於平盤，金融股的強勢恰好抵消了能源板塊的頹勢。昨天紐約商業交易所7月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格盤中一度創出139.89美元的歷史記錄，但收盤為下跌25美分，收於每桶134.61美元。

昨天的強勢股方面，受2009財年盈利目標上調的刺激， Titan Machinery(TITN)股價飆升11%，創出30.96美元的歷史新高。自從我們最早在5月12日的Swing trader bulletin中做出推薦以來，該股已經攀升53%以上，而且仍有上漲空間。

圖1.1 Titan Machinery(日線圖)

金融股方面，昨天雷曼兄弟(LEH)公佈第二財季虧損28億美元，折合每股5.14美元，同此前的預期相符。昨天公司股價上揚5%。

圖1.2 雷曼兄弟(日線圖)

再來看看大盤：

上週我們曾提出：“市場短期內已經嚴重超賣，因此未來數天標普500很有可能重新測試50日均線。”另外在昨天的市場前瞻中我們也認為標普目前仍是一個買入的信號。恰如我們所料，標普形成了一個可買入的底部，接著上漲了大約30點。眼下的問題是：“反彈能夠持續多久？”

為了回答這個問題，我們來看一張簡單的圖形：

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

從圖形的上部我們可以看到，超買/超賣指標顯示這一輪攻勢僅僅是一波超賣反彈。另外，價格正在快速接近我們的短期目標區域——5周下降通道的上方邊線，目前大約在1370點。因此未來數天出現一定的獲利回吐盤是不足為奇的。總而言之，儘管短期趨勢仍指向上漲，但是指數很有可能在首次測試1370 點的阻力位便遭遇一波新的賣盤，並可能將價格打壓至上週四低點，位於1331.29點。如果接下來指數跌破1352點的週一低點，將確認這一走勢。

總結：我們對標普近期走勢進行技術分析之後認為，指數正準備測試1370點的關鍵阻力位，隨後將測試1331點的上週四低點。簡而言之，從上週低點開始的超賣反彈已經接近尾聲。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。