Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for June 17, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 17, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday June 16, 2008.

We’ve offered in the previous Market Outlook that: “Thursday’s trading action indicated a positive bias for Friday session. That being said, unless there is a headline that everyone recognizes as bearish, there is a higher than average odds that the tape will close higher tomorrow.” As anticipated, stocks rallied Friday with the Dow Jones industrial average gained 165 points or 1.4%, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 20 points or 1.5% and the NASDAQ composite added 50 points or 2.1%. Overall, it was a very interesting and pleasant trading session.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

Note: charts are courtesy of Capital Essence’s Trend Forecaster Bulletin.

Chart 1.1 – Standard & Poor’s 500 index (daily).

According to the Trend Forecaster Bulletin, the board market index is in a confirmed buy signal. This is bullish and suggesting a retest of a minor resistance at the five-week falling channel’s upper border, about 1375. This, if hurdle and sustain, will increase the odds for a test of key resistance around the 1400 level. At this juncture, only a close below 1331 can wreck the short-term bullish set-up.

Chart 1.2 – Dow Jones industrial average (daily).

As you can see, the blue-chips index is currently in a non-confirm buy signal. This is good and suggesting a retest of last week’s high at 12600. This, if hurdle and sustain, will increase the odds for a test of May 20 bearish breakdown gap, about 12780. As usual we must stress out that conservative trader might want to wait for a confirmation - a move above 12377 and a close above 12338 – before jumping on the bullish bandwagon. In short, the near-term outlook is bullish barring a close below 12040.

Chart 1.3 – NASDAQ Composite index (daily).

Similar to the S&P, the tech heavy index is also in a confirmed buy signal. Again, this is bullish and suggesting further short-term gains is likely. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is the minor resistance around the 2460 - the five-week falling channel’s middle line. A walk above this level will confirm a retest of the channel’s upper border, about 2535 now. In short, unless there is a close below last week’s low at 2388, the near-term bias remains bullish.

In summary: it seems to us that the market had successfully established a significantly near-term low and is in an early stage of a new up-leg that has the potential to propel prices into the area of June’s highs.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月16日(週一)的市場技術分析。

在上週五的市場前瞻中我們提到：“週四大盤的走勢意味著今天上漲的可能性較大。因此，除非消息面有重大利空出台，那麼今天大盤走高的可能性要大於下跌。”恰如我們所料，上週五股市大幅上揚，道瓊斯工業平均指數走高165點或1.4%，標普500指數上漲20點或1.5%，納斯達克綜合指數高收 50點或2.1%。總的來說，這是一個十分有趣且令人愉快的交易日。

我們來看看三大股指的情形：

Note: charts are courtesy of Capital Essence’s Trend Forecaster Bulletin.

圖1.1 標普500指數(日線圖)

從上圖我們可以看到，標普出現買入信號確認。這意味著指數接下來可能測試5周下降通道上方邊線的次要阻力位，大約1375點。如果標普能夠有效站上這一阻力，將增加測試1400點關鍵阻力位的可能性。在目前關頭，只有收盤跌破1331點才能逆轉短期看漲的態勢。

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

我們可以看到，目前道指出現了一個非確認的買入信號。這意味著接下來可能重新測試上周高點，大約12600點。如果指數有效站上該高點，將增加測試5月20日向下跳空缺口的幾率，大約12780點。不過我們必須強調一下，如果你是一個保守的交易者，應該等待價格確認的出現，即股指站上12377 點或收盤站上12338點，然後才可以放心做多。總之，除非收盤跌破12040點，道指近期走勢依然看漲。

圖1.3 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

同標普類似，納指也出現了一個確認的買入信號。這同樣是看漲的，意味著短期可能進一步上漲。目前最應該關注的位置是5周下降通道中線的次要阻力位，大約2460點。突破這一阻力將確認對通道上邊的重新測試，目前大約在2535點。簡而言之，除非收盤跌破上周低點(2388點)，納指短期趨勢仍為看漲。

總結：在我們看來，市場已經成功形成了一個重要的近期底部，處於一輪嶄新攻勢的初期，有可能向6月高點區域發起攻勢。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。