Archive for June 13, 2008

Positive bias for Friday session

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday June 13, 2008.

It looked like we were going to have a big rally on Thursday morning though buying interest faded in the afternoon as traders headed for exits ahead of the weekend. Contributed to the early optimism was a strong retail sales report. May retail sales increased by 1.2%, excluding autos, which was above the expected 0.7% increase. Speaking of retails, shares of Big Lots Inc (BIG) jumped 3.54% on twice the daily average volume to 33.01 – a new 52-week high. Just so that you know, the stock had gained about +50% since profiled in our April 15 “Swing trader bulletin” and remains well position.

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Chart 1.1 – Big Lots Inc (daily).

Looking at a 15-month daily chart, we can see that Thursday’s break to the upside is very bullish. It had helped clearing the overhead resistance at last autumn high and setting the stage for a test of the major resistance at the area of last May’s high. In short, we’re still bullish on BIG and believe the stock will trend higher. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below May’s low at 26.37 will begin to compromise the near-term bullish outlook.

Also contributed to the early optimism was a renewed buying interest in financial stocks after the sector was upgraded at Morgan Stanley (MS). Large-cap names like Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) all closed higher. The Philadelphia bank index, or BKX, gained 1.02% as a result.

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Chart 1.2 – Philadelphia bank index (daily).

The sector is pretty much oversold in all time frames, a situation that often precursor to a technical rebound. In addition, current price structure suggested that the sector had put in an important low though it’s still in an early state of healing process. Immediate resistance is about 69. A sustain advance above this level will trigger a snap back rally that has the potential propel prices into the area of key resistance around the 75 level. In short, we could survive and find the low as long as price holds above the 65 level.

Good news surrounding the financial stocks had helped pushing the board market higher with the S&P gained about 4 points or 0.38% to 1339.

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Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

We’re technically pretty much oversold on a short-term basis. It explained Thursday’s positive trading action. In fact, this is very consistent to the “oversold bounce” scenario that we’ve offered in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “right now the most obvious level to watch is the 1325. Not only that this is a pretty strong support, the RSI indicator is also fast approaching the oversold level. So, it wouldn’t surprise us to see some buying interest around this area.” In short, there is a pretty good chance that we’ll see a retest of the 50-day moving average in the days ahead as long as price holds above the 1325 level.

In summary: Thursday’s trading action indicated a positive bias for Friday session. That being said, unless there is a headline that everyone recognizes as bearish, there is a higher than average odds that the tape will go higher tomorrow.

 

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)


Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

 

 

 

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今日美股或繼續走高

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月13日(週五)的市場技術分析。

本來昨天上午看起來美股會出現強勁反彈,但是下午投資者紛紛選擇在週末前離場,做多意願大幅萎縮。導致早盤市場出現樂觀情緒的是強勁的零售業銷售報告。除汽車外,5月份零售業銷售增長1.2%,高於市場預期的0.7%。零售股方面,昨天Big Lots Inc(BIG)以兩倍於均值的成交量大漲3.54%,收於33.01美元的52周新高。大家應該知道,自從我們最早在4月15日的Swing trader bulletin中作出買入推薦以來,該股已經上漲大約50%,而且仍有上行空間。

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圖1.1 Big Lots Inc(日線圖)

在上面跨度為15個月的日線圖中我們可以看到,週四的向上突破非常有利,清除了去年秋季高點的上方阻力,為進一步測試去年5月高點的重大阻力位打下了基礎。總而言之,我們依然看漲BIG,相信它還將進一步走高。在目前關頭,只有堅定跌破26.37美元的5月低點,才能對近期看漲態勢造成損害。

昨天上午行情另一個有利的因素是摩根士丹利(MS)調升金融板塊評級後市場再現做多金融股的意願。美國銀行(BAC)、花旗集團(C)、JP摩根大通(JPM)等大型金融股全部高收。費城銀行指數收盤上漲1.02%。

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圖1.2 費城銀行指數(日線圖)

不論從短中長期來看,銀行板塊都已經嚴重超賣,這種情況出現技術反彈是很正常的。另外,儘管板塊仍處在復原過程的初期,但從目前的價格形態來看,板塊已經形成一個重要低點。緊鄰阻力位大約在69點。如果指數有效站上該阻力,將迅速激發一輪攻勢,並可能將價格推向75點附近的關鍵價格阻力區域。簡而言之,只要不跌破65點,目前的底部便繼續有效。

金融股的利好消息推高了大盤,標普500指數上漲大約4個點或0.38%,收於1339點。

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圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

大盤短期內從技術上講已經嚴重超賣。這也正是週四美股高收的原因。事實上,昨天的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的“超賣反彈”的判斷如合符節,我們當時提到:“目前最應該關注的位置是1325點。不但這是一個強有力的支撐,而且相對強弱指標(RSI)也快速接近超賣區域,因此標普在該區域迎來一波買盤是不足為奇的。”簡而言之,只要標普堅守在1325點上方,指數接下來重新測試50日均線的可能性是很大的。

總結:週四大盤的走勢意味著今天上漲的可能性較大。因此,除非消息面有重大利空出台,那麼今天大盤走高的可能性要大於下跌。

 

(本文作者:Michelle Mai)


﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱

 

 

 

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