Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 13, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for June 13, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for June 13, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday June 12, 2008.

Wednesday trading session was a total disaster with the Dow dropping more than 200 points. Contributed to the overall weakness were a higher energy prices - U.S. light crude oil for July delivery rose $5.07 to settle at $136.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange – and the renew write-down concerns. Oppenheimer analyst Meridith Whitney had, once again, talked tough on banks. She said that future losses on banks could be greater than expected and dividends at all banks are also in question. Merrill Lynch’s downgrade Lehman Brothers (LEH) to Neutral from Buy also acted as the main drag on financial stocks.

With regarding to energy, shares of James River Coal Company (JRCC) jumped almost 9% to $46.95 – a new 52-week high. As a matter of fact, if you’ve purchased the stock since profiled in our March 26 “Swing trader bulletin“, you’d be sitting on close to 200% gains right now.

Crude’s jump pushed Transport stock lower. The Dow Transports dropped nearly 5% for the second time in four days.

Chart 1.1 – Dow Jones transport average (daily).

After printing an all-time high in less than a month ago, the transport broke down decisively below the 50-day moving average today on above average volume. This is very bearish. It seems to us that there is a pretty good chance that we’ll see a test of key support at the area of 200-day moving average before the calendar turns to July. Immediate resistance is about 5500.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of Titan Machinery Inc (TITN) jumped about 5% on double the daily average volume to close at $27.32 – a new all-time high. Just so that you know, the stock had gained more than +35% since profiled in our May 12 “Swing trader bulletin” and remains well position.

Chart 1.2 – Titan Machinery Inc (daily).

We’ve offered on Monday that: “technically speaking, Friday’s break above the May’s trend-line is bullish and indicating that the stock had completed the near-term correction and is ready for a retest of May’s high…This, if hurdle and sustain and we think it would, will have the potential to propel prices into the 30s level.” As anticipated, the stock broke out today. This is very bullish and we see no reason to abandon the “test of the 30 level” hypothesis. In short, we’re still bullish on TITN and believe the stock will trend higher. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below June 4 low at $23.36 will begin to compromise the near-term bullish outlook.

Bad news surrounding the financial stocks dragged down the board market with the S&P 500 index lost about 23 points or 1.69% to settle at 1335.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Looking at the five-month daily chart, we can see that recent weaknesses stems from last Friday’s break below the 50-day moving average. Right now the most obvious level to watch is the 1325. Not only that this is a pretty strong support, the RSI indicator is also fast approaching the oversold level. So, it wouldn’t surprise us to see some buying interest around this area. Immediate resistance is about 1350. From a longer term perspective, unless we see a sustain break below the March low, about 1270, or above the May high, about 1425, we’re pretty much in a trading range.

In summary: despite Wednesday’s massive decline, the market is still locked in a board trading range, S&P 1270-1425. This would translate into uncertainties and high volatility as we’re heading into the triple witching expirations.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月12日(週四)的市場技術分析。

週三的行情完全是一場災難，道指大跌200多點。昨天行情的不利因素一是能源價格的走高，二是市場再現對金融機構出現減記潮的擔憂。昨天紐約商業交易所7月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格大漲5.07美元，收於每桶136.38美元。Oppenheimer分析師梅裡迪斯-惠特尼 (Meredith Whitney)再次對銀行業發出悲觀論調。她說，銀行業未來的虧損可能高於大家的預期，同時所有銀行的派息都是一個疑問。另外，美林將雷曼兄弟 (LEH)的評級從“買入”調降至“中立”，成為拖低金融股的一大利空消息。

能源股方面，昨天James River Coal Company(JRCC)股價大漲近9%，收於46.95美元的52周新高。事實上，如果你在我們3月26日在Swing trader bulletin中對該股作出推薦後買進，目前收益率已經接近200%。

原油價格飆升給運輸股帶來壓力，道瓊斯運輸業平均指數大跌近5%，這是4個交易日內第二天出現如此巨大跌幅。

圖1.1 道瓊斯運輸業平均指數(日線圖)

運輸指數不到一個月前創出了歷史新高，昨天放量大跌，果斷擊穿50日均線的支撐。這是非常不利的。在我們看來，運輸板塊很有可能在7月份之前測試200日均線的關鍵支撐。緊鄰阻力位大約在5500點。

儘管大盤全線下挫，昨天Titan Machinery Inc(TITN)以兩倍於日均值的成交量大漲約5%，收於27.32美元的歷史新高。自從我們在5月12日的Swing trader bulletin中作出推薦以來，該股漲幅已經超過35%，而且依然有上漲空間。

圖1.2 Titan Machinery(日線圖)

我們在週一的市場前瞻中提到：“從技術上看，上週五的上漲突破了5月份的下降趨勢，這是一個看漲信號，意味著近期回調已經結束，準備好重新測試 5月高點。……如果順利突破這一阻力(可能性很大)，將有可能將股價推向30多美元的價位。”恰如我們所料，昨天該股強勢突破。這是非常有利的，我們沒有理由放棄此前“測試30美元區域”的判斷。總之，我們繼續看漲TITN相信它還將進一步走高。在目前關頭，只有堅定跌破6月4日低點(23.36美元) 才能危及短期看漲勢頭。

金融股的負面消息壓低了大盤，標普500指數下跌23點或1.69%，收於1335點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

在上面跨度為5個月的日線圖中我們可以看到，標普近期的弱勢是由上週五跌破50日均線所引發的。目前最應該關注的位置是1325點。不但這是一個非常有力的支撐，而且相對強弱指標(RSI)同樣快速接近超賣區域。因此，在這一區域附近出現一定的買盤是不足為奇的。緊鄰阻力位大約在1350點。從更長期來看，除非指數有效跌破3月低點(大約1270點)，或者站上5月高點(大約1425點)，繼續區間運行的可能性是很大的。

總結：儘管週三大幅下挫，市場仍被鎖定在一個交易區間之內，即標普1270-1425點。隨著“三重魔力日”臨近，這必將導致更大的不確定性和劇烈震盪。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。