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Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday June 11, 2008.

Stocks continued to struggle Tuesday as investors grappled with concerns about inflation following the hawkish inflation comment from the Federal Reserve Chairman. Fed Chairman Bernanke said that policy makers will “strongly resist” any surge in inflation expectations. He has also indicated that the Fed had done cutting rates, and its next move is likely an increase in rates. Fed funds futures suggest an 87% probability that rates will be increased by the end of September.

A milestone in Tuesday trading was crude’s weakening in price. U.S. light crude oil for July delivery fell $3.04 to settle at $131.31 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Looking at the seven-month daily chart of crude oil, we can see that there is currently an attempt to close last week’s bullish breakout gap, about 128. Technically speaking, this is a very substantial support plateau from where price will base and climb in a next couple of days. Furthermore, an upside breakout from the base area would trigger an acceleration run toward the important sentiment 150 level. In short, the near-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below last week’s low at 122.

The other big thing in Tuesday trading background was strength in financial stocks. Large-cap names such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) showed notable strength – all up 2-3%. And the Philadelphia bank index, or BKX, gained 1.42% as a result.

Chart 1.2 – Philadelphia bank index (daily).

Yesterday we’ve wrote that: “there is currently a test of key support at the area of 2003 low. This seems like a good support to us.” As anticipated, the sector rebounded nicely today. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is Monday low at 66.49. As long as price holds above this level, there is a better than average likelihood that we’ll see a retest of the 75 level in the days ahead. This, if hurdle and sustain, will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, and have the potential to propel prices into the 80 level.

Strength in the financial stocks was offset by weaknesses in the energy and material sectors, which were driven principally by the strength in the U.S. dollar. Bear in mind that a “low” commodities prices and a “strong” greenback are very relative terms. The S&P 500 index eventually settled the day with modest losses, down 0.24%.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The index consolidates around the area of the March channel’s lower border. The leading RSI’s positive divergence at recent low suggests that there is a pretty good chance that we’ll see a retest of last week’s high, about 1400, as long the 1350 level holds. And the alternative is the market falls off the cliff, into the area of March’s low.

In summary: trading action in the past couple of days indicates that, more likely than not, the market is setting up for a snap back rally. Although there is still a very good chance that the sideway basing pattern will be extended into Wednesday trading session. In short, expect a narrow trading range in Wednesday trading action and possibly a recovery rally, or range expansion, into the end of the week.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月11日(週三)的市場技術分析。

昨天聯儲主席表明了治理通脹問題的強硬立場，在投資者同通脹憂慮的搏鬥中，股市繼續掙扎前行。聯儲主席伯南克宣稱，政策制定者將“堅定抵制”任何通脹預期的上升。他的言外之意是，聯儲已經關閉降息通道，下一步的舉措很可能是加息。聯邦基金利率期貨顯示，在9月底之前聯儲有87%的可能加息。

週二市場的一個里程碑便是原油價格出現回落。紐約商業交易所7月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格下跌3.04美元，收於131.31美元。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

在上面跨度為7個月的日線圖中，我們可以看到原油正在試圖回補上周的跳空缺口，大約128美元。從技術上講，這是一個非常堅實的支撐帶，未來數天價格有可能在這裡整固並進一步攀高。另外，如果油價從這個整理帶向上突破，可能激發加速攻勢，指向150美元的重要心理關口。簡而言之，除非收盤跌破 122美元的上周低點，近期走勢依然看漲。

昨天行情的另一個亮點便是金融股止跌回升。JP摩根(JPM)、富國銀行(WFC)、花旗集團(C)等大盤股表現尤其強勁，全部上漲2%-3%。費城銀行指數上漲1.42%。

圖1.2 費城銀行指數(日線圖)

昨天我們曾提到：“目前銀行指數正在測試2003年低點的關鍵支撐。在我們看來，這是一個非常有力的支撐。”恰如我們所料，昨天銀行板塊大幅反彈。目前最應該關注的位置是66.49點的週一低點。只要價格堅守在該支撐之上，未來數天指數重新測試75點的阻力位可能性較大。如果指數進一步有效站上 75點，將觸發大量止損，從而有可能將價格推向80點附近區域。

不過金融股的強勢被能源和原料板塊的弱勢所抵消，後者主要是受美元走強所推動。我們應該記住，大宗商品價格走低和美元匯率走強之間有著很直接的關係。最終標普500指數小幅下挫，低收0.24%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

目前標普正在從3月份開始的運行區間的下方邊線處整固。相對強弱指標(RSI)在近期低點出現正面背離，這意味著只要1350點不失守，接下來很有可能出現重新測試上周高點的走勢，大約1400點。還有一種可能就是市場跳下懸崖，直接進入3月低點區域。

總結：過去幾個交易日的行情說明，市場很有可能快速出現反彈。不過大盤在今天的行情中繼續橫向整固的可能性也是很大的。總而言之，我們預計今天股市可能窄幅震盪，本周結束前可能出現反彈或者波動區間拓寬。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。