Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” for June 11, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 11, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

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Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday June 10, 2008.

As expected, stocks struggled throughout the session Monday as investors digest a fresh batch of mix economic headlines. Contributed to the early weakness was Lehman Brothers’ (LEH) disappointing earning announcement. Lehman expects a massive $2.8 billion second quarter loss and plans to raise $6.0 billion in new capital. General speaking, Lehman Brothers’ trouble had once again threw cold water onto “the worse is behind us” group. It’s technically saying that the financial sector is still having problems – big problems. The market, however, managed to overcome the early weakness amid a pullback in energy prices. Crude oil fell 2.9% to $134.54 as traders locked in some profits after Friday’s 8.4% spike.

Speaking of energy, shares of James River Coal Company (JRCC) jumped more than 11% Monday on double the daily average volume. Our bullish stance on the stock has certainly been no secret – we’ve talked bullishly about JRCC right here, in this column, when the stock was in its teens, 20s, then 30s and it’s now in the mid 40s. As a matter of fact, if you’ve purchased JRCC since profiled in our March 26 “Swing trader bulletin”, you’d be sitting on more than +168% gains right now.

Chart 1.1 – James River Coal Company (daily).

Technically speaking, Monday’s break to the upside is very bullish. It had helped to clear the 2006 high and setting the stage for a test of the all-time high at 52.56. This, if hurdle and sustain, would trigger an acceleration run that has the potential to propel prices into the 60 area. In short, the near-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below June 05 low at 37.05.

Lehman’s quarterly loss weighed on the bank sector. The Philadelphia bank index, or BKX, dropped more than 3% to close at 67.37 – a new multi-year low.

Chart 1.2 – KBW bank index (weekly).

Looking at the seven-year weekly chart of the banks we can see that there is currently a test of key support at the area of 2003 low. This seems like a good support to us though still, we’d stay away from the long side until all the weak hands got washed out. The index has a strong layer of support that runs from 65-60. Immediate resistance is at the area of March low, about 75.

As goes the bank so goes the tape, so to speak. Pessimism surrounding the financials stocks dragged down the board market.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The index tested and held above the minor support at March’s high, about 1350, today. This is encouraging. In addition, the RSI indicator is also fast approaching the oversold level. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see a technical rebound in the day ahead. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is the 50-day moving average, about 1384. Immediate support is at today’s low, about 1350.

In summary: there is a pretty good chance that the market is setting up for a short-term oversold bounce. However, until we see a positive turn around in the financial stocks, rallies should be sold.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月10日(週二)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，週一美股在新出爐的一批利好和利空消息中艱難前行。利空消息方面，雷曼兄弟(LEH)昨天公佈了令人失望的盈利報告，第二季度損失達創紀錄的28億美元，計劃籌集資本金60億美元。總的來說，雷曼兄弟的困境再次給那些認為“寒冬已經過去”的投資者澆了一盆冷水。而從技術上講，這說明金融板塊依然存在問題，而且是大問題。不過，受能源價格回調的影響，昨天大盤成功克服了早盤的弱勢。經過上週五8.4%的飆升之後，昨天投資者逢高出貨，原油價格下跌2.9%至134.54美元。

能源股方面，週一James River Coal Company(JRCC)飆升11%以上，成交量兩倍於日均值。我們一直看好這只股票，從該股10多塊錢到20多塊，再到30多塊，再到現在的40多塊，我們在本欄對它一路看漲。事實上，如果你在我們3月26日在Swing trader bulletin中對它作出推薦後便買進，現在回報率已經超過168%。

圖1.1 James River Coal Company(日線圖)

從技術上講，週一的突破行情非常有利，清除了2006年高點的阻力，為下一步測試52.56美元的歷史高點做好了準備。如果順利突破這一高點阻力，激發的上升動能可能將價格加速推向60多美元的價格區域。簡單來講，除非收盤跌破37.05美元的6月5日低點，該股依然看漲。

雷曼的季度虧損給銀行板塊帶來壓力，費城銀行指數跌幅超過3%，收於67.37點的多年新低。

圖1.2 KBW銀行指數(周線圖)

在上面跨度為7年的周線圖上我們可以看到，銀行板塊正在測試2003年低點的關鍵支撐。這似乎是一個有力的支撐位，不過在所有的弱手被清除出場之前，我們寧願暫時迴避銀行股。指數在65-60點之間有一個強大的支撐帶。緊鄰阻力位在3月低點區域，大約75點。

俗話說，銀行往東，大盤不往西。市場對金融股的消極情緒也拉低了大盤。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天標普測試並守住了3月高點的次要支撐位，大約1350點。這一點令人鼓舞。另外，相對強弱指標也正在快速逼近超賣領域，因此未來數天出現一波技術反彈行情是不足為奇的。目前最應該關注的位置是50日均線，大約1384點。緊鄰支撐位在昨日低點，大約1350點。

總結：市場很有可能出現一波超賣反彈行情。不過，在金融股真正回暖之前，任何反彈都是出貨的機會。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。