Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 10, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

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Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday June 09, 2008.

We’ve said on Wednesday evening that: “from a medium term perspective, the market traded like it wants to go lower…and we see no reason to abandon the “retest of March’s low” hypothesis. Although it seems to us that people need an excuse to sell. Hopefully Friday’s job report will help.” As anticipated, stocks plunged across the board Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the largest jump in unemployment in 33 years. For the day, the Dow dropped about 400 points, or 3.1%, its biggest one-day decline on both a point and percentage basis since February of 2007 - the start of the subprime mortgage crisis.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of Titan Machinery Inc (TITN) rose almost 3% Friday. Just so that you know, initially profiled in our May 12 “Swing trader bulletin”, the stock had gained more than 25% and remains well position.

Chart 1.1 – Titan Machinery Inc (daily).

Technically speaking, Friday’s break above the May’s trend-line is bullish and indicating that the stock had completed the near-term correction and is ready for a retest of May’s high. The bullish stochastic crossover also strengthens the bullish case. In short, we’re still bullish on TITN and believe that the stock will be trending higher. Immediate resistance is at the area of prior high, about 26.50. This, if hurdle and sustain and we think it would, will have the potential to propel prices into the 30s level. Key support is at the area of the December’s trend-line, about 20.

As rattling as the unemployment number was, the stock market was even more spooked by a stunning rise in oil prices. Crude oil jumped $10.75 to settle at $138.54 a barrel Friday on the weak dollar and in response to a Morgan Stanley note that said oil could hit $150 a barrel by July 4. As a matter of fact, this is very consistent to the bullish scenario that we’ve offered in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “Thursday’s bullish reversal is indicating that oil had completed the short-term correction and is ready for a retest of the prior high at 133.70. This, if hurdle and sustain, will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, and have the potential to propel prices into the area of the important sentiment 150 level.”

Chart 1.2 – United States Oil Fund (daily).

Looking at the five-month daily chart of the United States Oil Fund (USO) - an ETF that tracks crude oil futures – we can see that Friday’s massive advance had cleared the overhead resistance at May’s high. In addition, trading volume also favors the bullish case. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see a test of the key sentiment 120 level in a very near future. Immediate support is about 104.

The spike in energy prices dragged down equity market with the S&P 500 index plunged 43 points or 3.09% to close at 1360.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

On a daily chart, you can see that Friday’s massive sell-off had pushed price decisively below the two-conjoining support – the May 27 key reversal low and the 50-day moving average. Also, as it was the case in the past couple of months, volume expanded as price dropped. As mentioned, this is very bearish and suggesting lower prices in the days ahead. The next level down is about 1325, which is not very far away, it’s about 35 points, considering the 43 points plunged on Friday.

In summary: technically speaking, Friday’s massive break to the downside had put an end to the 10-week recovery rally and increases the odds for a retest of key support at the area of March’s low.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月9日(週一)的市場技術分析。

上週四我們在市場前瞻中說到：“中期市場仍有進一步走低的要求，因此我們保留先前『重新測試3月低點』的判斷。在我們看來，要出現大的拋盤，可能需要一定的刺激因素，興許週五的就業報告能夠起到這一作用。”恰如我們所料，上週五美國勞工部勞動統計局公佈失業率出現33年來最大升幅，股市大幅跳水。收盤道指重挫近400點或3.1%，不論在點數還是百分比上，均為2007年2月次貸危機爆發以來的最大單日跌幅。

儘管大盤全面跳水，Titan Machinery(TITN)上週五上漲近3%。因此，自從我們最早在5月12日的Swing trader bulletin中作出推薦以來，該股已經上漲25%以上，而且仍有上漲空間。

圖1.1 Titan Machinery(日線圖)

從技術上看，上週五的上漲突破了5月份的下降趨勢，這是一個看漲信號，意味著近期回調已經結束，準備好重新測試5月高點。隨機指標出現“金叉” 同樣支持上漲的趨勢。總而言之，我們依然看漲TITN，相信它還將進一步走高。緊鄰阻力位在前期高點區域，大約26.50美元。如果順利突破這一阻力(可能性很大)，將有可能將股價推向30多美元的價位。關鍵支撐位在去年12月份開始的上升趨勢線附近，大約20美元。

除了失業率帶來的衝擊，上週五油價的驚人飆升對股市形成了進一步的打壓。上週五美元走低，摩根士丹利在研報中認為原油在7月4日前將站上150 美元，這兩個因素刺激原油暴漲10.75美元，收於每桶138.54美元。事實上，原油這一走勢同我們在上週五的市場前瞻中提出的看漲判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到：“從技術上講，昨天的止跌回升說明原油已經完成了短期超買回調，並準備好重新測試133.70美元的前期高點。如果油價能夠有效突破這一高點，將觸發大量止損，從而有可能將價格推向150美元的重要心理關口。”

圖1.2 United States Oil Fund(日線圖)

United States Oil Fund(USO)是一隻跟蹤原油期貨走勢的ETF，從上面為期5個月的日線圖我們可以看到，上週五價格的飆升已經清除了5月高點的上方阻力。另外，成交放出天量，同樣支持看漲的判斷。因此USO很快出現測試120美元關鍵心理點位的走勢是不足為奇的。緊鄰支撐位大約在104美元。

能源價格的飆升壓低了大盤，標普500指數暴跌43點或3.09%，收於1360點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

從圖形上我們可以看到，上週五的暴跌使得指數果斷擊穿兩個支撐位，一是5月27日反轉行情的低點，二是50日均線。另外價格下跌伴隨著成交量的大幅放大，這同幾個月來的情形是類似的。正如我們提到的，這是一個非常不利的信號，意味著未來數天價格還將進一步走低。下一個下跌目標是1325點，從上週五暴跌43點來看，目前距離該位置35點並不算特別遠。

總結：從技術上講，上週五的暴挫結束了10周來的熊市反彈行情，並加大了重新測試3月低點關鍵支撐的幾率。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。