Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for June 09, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” for June 09, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for June 09, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday June 06, 2008.

Thursday was a great day for the bulls with a rise on the Dow far in excess of 200 points. Contributed to the overall optimism was a surprise dip in weekly jobless claims and the stronger-than-expected May retail sales.

As it was the case in the past couple of weeks, tech stocks provided leadership in Thursday advance.

Chart 1.1 – NASDAQ composite index (daily).

Looking at the seven-month daily chart of the NASDAQ composite index, we can see that Thursday’s bullish breakout had helped cleared the overhead resistance at 200-day moving average and is setting a stage for an upward push toward key resistance at January’s bearish breakaway gap. This, if hurdle and sustain, will increase the odds for a retest of the December’s high, about 2725. Immediate support is at the area of the March’s trend-line, about 2470 now.

Speaking of tech, shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumped more than 8% today on the heels of Wednesday’s 5.58% rally.

Chart 1.2 – Advanced Micro Devices (daily).

Initially profiled 3 days ago in our June 4 “Swing trader bulletin”, the stocks gains about 13% and done so on technical confirmation. This is to say, Thursday’s break to the upside had helped cleared the one-month overhead resistance and setting the stage for a test of February’s high, about 8.08. In addition, volume also surged significantly as price advance. This is very bullish.

From a longer term perspective, however, the stock is well above the 40-day moving average, which is considered a short-term overextended. Further, an upside gap had also created, as a result of today’s bullish breakout, which certainly implies the strong upside momentum, but also suggesting the need for some backing and filling. In short, we’re still bullish on AMD and believe that pullback should be bought.

In worth noticing that, the market hit a small air pocket in Thursday afternoon when oil, which touched 122.75 in early trading, attracted some buying interests. U.S. light crude oil for July delivery jumped $5.49 to settle at $127.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile.

Chart 1.3 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Technically speaking, today’s bullish reversal is indicating that oil had completed the short-term overbought correction and is ready for a retest of the prior high at 133.70. This, if hurdle and sustain, will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, and have the potential to propel prices into the area of the important sentiment 150 level. In short, the near-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below Wednesday’s low at 122.

Good news surround retail stocks sparked a new wave of buying interest that helped pushing the S&P to close at its best level of the day. The board market index gained 25 points or 1.87% to settle at 1402.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Thursday’s massive advance had helped pushing the index above the two-week falling trend-line. Trading volume, however, is not consistent with the strong price action. As you can see, volume actually declined a bit today. So, unless volume starts to picking up, we could be stuck below the 200-day moving average for, at least, a couple of days. In short, until proven otherwise, expect the index to bounce within the 1425-1375 trading range.

In summary: it seems to us that today big rally is merely short sellers covering their positions ahead of Friday’s jobs report - chatter that the report will be a lot better-than-expected was in play throughout Thursday trading. That being said, unless there is a headline that everyone recognizes as bearish, the path with least resistance is to the upside.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月6日(週五)的市場技術分析。

對於市場多頭而言，週四是個大好的日子，道指大漲200多點。昨天有兩大利好消息，一是周度失業救濟申請人數意外出現下降，二是5月份零售業銷售數字好於預期。

正如幾周來的情形一樣，昨天科技股繼續充當領漲先鋒。

圖1.1 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

從上面為期7個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，昨天納指的飆升成功清除了200日均線的上方阻力，已經準備好挑戰1月份向下突破缺口的關鍵阻力位。如果納指順利攻佔這一阻力，將增加重新測試去年12月份高點的可能性，大約2725點。緊鄰支撐位在3月份開始的上升趨勢線附近，目前大約在2470點。

科技股方面，昨天Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)在週三大漲5.58%的基礎上繼續飆升8%以上。

圖1.2 Advanced Micro Devices(日線圖)

我們在3天前(6月4日)的Swing trader bulletin中對該股作出了推薦，目前已經上漲大約13%，而且對漲勢繼續作出了技術確認。換句話說，週四的飆升清除了一個月運行區間的上方阻力，為下一步測試2月高點打下了基礎，大約8.08美元。另外，價格飆升的同時也伴隨著成交量的急劇放大，這是非常有利的。不過從長期來看，該股已經大幅高於 40日均線，因此短期內已經超漲。另外，昨天的向上突破也產生了一個跳空缺口，意味著接下來會有一定的整固和補缺行情。簡而言之，我們繼續看漲AMD並認為回調將是買入的機會。

值得注意的是，昨天下午原油迎來做多熱情的時候，股市走勢出現一個小的凹陷。昨天上午原油一度下探122.75美元的低點。昨天收盤，紐約商業交易所7月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油價格下跌5.49美元，收於每桶127.79美元。

圖1.3 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

從技術上講，昨天的止跌回升說明原油已經完成了短期超買回調，並準備好重新測試133.70美元的前期高點。如果油價能夠有效突破這一高點，將觸發大量止損，從而有可能將價格推向150美元的重要心理關口。總而言之，除非接下來收盤跌破122美元的週三低點，短期內油價依然看漲。

零售股的利好消息激發了投資者新一輪的做多興趣，並對標普形成拉升，使其收於當日最高點。標普大漲25點或1.87%，收於1402點。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

週四的飆升使得標普上破兩周來的下降趨勢線。不過量能並未對價格的強勁攻勢作出配合。從圖上我們可以看到，實際上昨天成交活躍度還有所下降。因此，除非接下來開始出現放量，標普至少在幾個交易日內還無法站上200日線。簡而言之，如果不出意外，預計指數會在1425-1375的區間內運行。

總結：在我們看來，由於昨天市場傳言今天即將公佈的就業報告可能遠遠好於預期，因此昨天的飆漲可能僅僅是空頭回補行情。由此看來，除非出現重大利空，目前大盤阻力最小的方向乃是向上。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。