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This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 06, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

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Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday June 05, 2008.

Stocks closed Wednesday’s session mixed, at the end of a choppy session that saw the S&P 500 trading as high as 0.8% and as low as 0.4%. For the day, both of the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor’s 500 settle slightly below the zero line, while the tech rich, NASDAQ composite index ended roughly 1% higher. In fact, the Wednesday’s trading action is pretty consistent to our bullish outlook on the tech sector: “we’re starting to repeat what happened at the end of March when tech stocks took the leadership. General speaking, the market is doing quite well when tech stocks outperformed and vice versa. So, is it a new bull market? We don’t know yet. But technical analysis tells us that if there is a bull market, it should be tech” – see May 30 Market Outlook.

Let take a look at the major indices:

Chart 1.1 – Dow Jones industrial average (daily).

Looking at the five-month daily chart, we can see that this week’s decline stems from the Dow’s topping its 200 day, and then falling below its 50-day moving average. In addition, the MACD indicator dropped below the zero line and is also trending below its signal line. This is very bearish. Right now the most obvious level to watch is the April 15^th low at 12269. This, if violates on a closing basis, is indicating that there is a pretty good chance that we’ll a retest of March’s low in a very near future.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Similar to the Dow, the S&P also pullback to the area of immediate support after a test of key resistance at the 200-day moving average was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. It worth noticing that volume is picking up as price dropped. Technically speaking, this is the most bearish relationship under the sun. It’s indicating an urgency to sell. With that said, there is a pretty good chance that the market is setting up for a test the 1325 level. A sustain decline below May’s low at 1373 will confirm this. In short, unless there is a sustain walk above last week’s high at 1406, the near-term outlook remains bearish.

In summary: Wednesday’s trading action suggested that, more likely than not, the tape will continue to chop sideway in Thursday session. And from a medium term perspective, the market traded like it wants to go lower. So we see no reason to abandon the “retest of March’s low” hypothesis. Although it seems to us that people need an excuse to sell. Hopefully Friday’s job report will help.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月5日(週四)的市場技術分析。

週三美股漲跌互現，整個交易日震盪十分劇烈，標普500最高點為上漲0.8%，最低點為下跌0.4%。收盤道瓊斯工業平均指數和標普500指數均略低於平盤點位，但是納斯達克綜合指數差不多上漲1%。事實上，週三大盤的走勢同我們此前對科技板塊的看漲評論非常吻合：“當前股市正在重複3月底的行情：科技股領漲，股市已形成一個重要低點。總而言之，目前股市表現非常不錯，科技股繼續領漲大盤，當然後者也正是前者的原因。那麼這是否是一輪新牛市的開始？我們不得而知。不過技術分析告訴我們，如果有牛市的話，那也應該是科技股的牛市。”

我們來看看各大股指：

圖1.1 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

在上面為期5個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，本周道指的下跌動能是由測試200日均線阻力位失敗並進一步擊穿50日均線支撐所產生的。另外， MACD指標跌破零線並在信號線下方運行。這是非常不利的。目前最應該關注的位置是12269點的4月15日低點。如果道指收盤擊穿這一低點支撐，意味著很快將出現重新測試3月低點的走勢。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

同道指類似，標普在測試200日線關鍵阻力位的時候遭遇強勁拋盤，目前已經回調至緊鄰支撐區域。我們注意到，標普在回調的過程中伴隨著成交活躍度的上升。從技術上講，這是天底下最為不利的價量關係，說明市場做空意願強烈。由此看來，標普接下來出現測試1325點的走勢是非常有可能的。如果指數堅定跌破1373點的5月低點，將確認這一走勢。總而言之，除非指數有效站上1406點的上周高點，近期趨勢依然看跌。

總結：從昨天大盤的走勢來看，今天股市很有可能繼續橫向運行。中期市場仍有進一步走低的要求，因此我們保留先前“重新測試3月低點”的判斷。在我們看來，要出現大的拋盤，可能需要一定的刺激因素，興許週五的就業報告能夠起到這一作用。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。