Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 05, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for June 05, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” for June 05, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for June 05, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday June 04, 2008.

Equity market closed lower Tuesday amid another credit market fallout and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s hints that the central bank will stop cutting interest rates. The Dow Jones industrial average lost just over 100 points, or 0.8%, for the day.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of Meritage Homes Corp. (MTH) bucked the trend, jumped more than 8% on above the daily average volume.

Chart 1.1 – Meritage Homes Corp (daily).

Initially profiled in our May 28 “Swing trader bulletin” as a potential buy candidate, the stock had put on a very decent gain and remains well position.

Tuesday’s breakout above the one week congestion pattern is very bullish and suggesting that this might be the beginning of a new up-leg that has the potential to propel prices into the area of April high, about 24.49; then all the way to last April’s low, about 32. In short, we’re bullish on MTH and expecting the stock to trend higher. Immediate support is at May 23^rd low, about 16. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below this level will begin to compromise the near-term bullish outlook.

Notably, U.S. light crude oil for July delivery fell $3.45 to settle at $124.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Chart 1.2 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

It has been a while since we’ve seen this firm of a down-leg. Looking at the five month daily chart, we can see that crude closed below its opening price in six out of the last eight trading sessions. This is bearish, though, as mentioned a couple days ago, crude can pullback as low as 120 and still not damaging the long-term uptrend. In addition, the short-term stochastic indicator is also approached the oversold territory. So there is a pretty good chance that we’re setting up for a nice oversold rebound. This, if and when it happens, will increase the odds for a retest of May’s high.

For the first time in many weeks, it felt like there’s a genuine disconnect between the energy and equities. Crude’s stumble had failed to put in a bid in stocks. The S&P 500 index lost 8 points or 0.58% to finish at 1377.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

As you can see from the five-month daily chart above, Tuesday’s weakness is merely a downside follow-through of Monday’s massive break to the downside. Current stochastic bearish crossover also strengthens the bear’s case. So, more likely than not, the market is setting up for a test of support around the 1325 area. A sustain decline below the May’s low at 1373 will confirm this. Immediate resistance is at the area of last week’s high, about 1406. At this juncture, only a walk above this level can wreck the short-term bearish bias.

In summary: it seems to us that the stage is set for a retest of March’s low. However, the bears need a very strong catalyst to really take the market down. Hopefully Friday monthly job report will do the trick.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月4日(週三)的市場技術分析。

由於信貸危機餘波未盡以及聯儲主席伯南克暗示央行將停止降息，週二美股繼續下挫。收盤道瓊斯工業平均指數下挫過百點，跌幅0.8%。

儘管股市全面下挫，昨天Meritage Homes(MTH )逆市大漲，漲幅超過8%，成交量超出日均水平。

圖1.1 Meritage Homes(日線圖)

自從我們最早在5月28日的Swing trader bulletin中作出買入推薦以來，該股漲幅已經不小，而且勢頭依然很好。

昨天的飆升打破了一周的橫向運行態勢，這是非常有利的信號，意味著這有可能是新一輪漲勢的開始，可能將價格推向4月高點區域，大約24.49美元，然後一路上攻至去年4月低點，大約32美元。一句話，我們對MTH 持看漲立場，認為它還將進一步走高。緊鄰支撐位在5月23日低點，大約16美元。在目前關頭，只有持續跌破該支撐才有可能逆轉短期看漲的態勢。

值得注意的是，昨天紐約商業交易所7月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格下跌3.45美元，收於每桶124.31美元。

圖1.2 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

原油已經有一段時間沒有出現這樣迅猛的跌勢了。在上面為期5個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，過去8個交易日中有6個交易日原油收盤低於開盤價位。這是看跌的信號，不過恰如我們數天前提到的，原油有可能回調至120美元，但即便如此也不會改變長牛走勢。另外，短期隨機指標也正在接近超賣領域。因此出現一波超賣反彈行情的可能性是非常大的。如果出現反彈，將增加原油重新測試5月高點的幾率。

這可能是數周來的首次，我們感覺到能源和股市真正出現了脫節，原油價格的暴跌並未給股市形成推動，標普500指數下跌8個點或0.58%，收於1377點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

從上面為期5個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，昨天的下挫僅僅是延續了週一重跌的下行動能。目前隨機指標出現“死叉”，同樣強化了看跌的走勢。因此，市場很有可能已經準備好測試1325點區域的支撐。如果接下來標普有效跌破1373點的5月低點，將對這一走勢作出確認。緊鄰阻力位在上周高點區域，大約1406點。在目前關頭，只有站上該阻力才能逆轉短期看跌的勢頭。

總結：在我們看來，市場似乎已經準備好重新測試3月低點。不過，空頭要想真正拉低大盤，還需要非常強勁的催化劑，希望週五的月度就業報告能夠充當這一角色。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。