Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 04, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for June 04, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for June 04, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday June 03, 2008.

Stocks tumbled Monday amid a higher energy prices and renew worries about the financial sector after Standard & Poor’s took negative credit rating actions on several major financial firms, and Wachovia and Washington Mutual announced management shakeups. For the day, the Dow lost 134 points or 1.06% to finish at 12503. As a matter of fact, Monday’s trading action had confirmed the validity of the “roll-over” scenario that we’ve offered in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “the market closed out the week right beneath the area of key resistance. It seems to us that the oversold bounce that started on May 27^th has nearly run its course and could peter out at any moment.”

As noted above, contributed to the overall weakness was a higher oil prices. U.S. light crude oil for July delivery rose 41 cents to settle at $127.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Speaking of energy, shares of James River Coal Company (JRCC) – a subject of our previous bullish discussion – jumped more than 7% on heavy volume to close at 40.77 – another new 52-week high. In fact, if you’ve purchased JRCC since profiled in March 26 “Swing trader bulletin”, you’d be sitting on almost +150% gains Monday.

Financial stocks were under selling pressure Monday after S&P cuts debt ratings on Merrill Lynch (MER), Lehman Bros. (LEH) and Morgan Stanley (MS). The bank index, or BKX, dropped 1.83% to 74.48 – a new multi-year low as a result.

Chart 1.1 – KBW Bank index (daily).

As you can see, after bounced off the critical support around the 75 level for 3 times this year, the index broke down decisively today. This is very bearish and suggesting that this [today’s break to the downside] could be a beginning of a new down-leg.

But hold on, things look very interesting on the long-term chart.

Chart 1.2 – KBW Bank index (weekly).

Looking at the six and a half year weekly chart, we can see that there is currently a positive RSI divergence. This is indicating that we could be getting closer to the ‘seller capitulation’. This, if and when it happen, will trigger a massive short covering rally that has the potential to propel prices into the area of May’s high, about 88. An upside reversal in the next couple of days will confirm this. Key support level is painfully far away, between the 70-65 range.

As go the banks so goes the tape, so to speak. Weaknesses surrounding the financial stocks dragged down the board market with the S&P lost about 15 points or 1.05% to close at 1385.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Yesterday we’ve wrote that: “there is a pretty good chance that we’ll see a test of last Monday low at 1373.” As anticipated, the market rolled over today. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is the 1373 level. As mentioned, a sustain decline below this level will increase the odds for a retest of key support at the 1325 level. At this juncture, only a walk above May 29^th high at 1406.32 can wreck the short-term bearish bias.

In summary: financial is one of the most important sectors in the S&P. General speaking, no major bull market can be launched and no significant rally can be sustained without the financials participation or leadership. That being said, their health is vital for the board market. While Monday’s break to the downside is bearish, technical analysis is telling us that it’s only short-term and we’re pretty close to the end of the financial crisis rather than a beginning. As noted above, there are signs of capitulation in the banks as selling heat up – dumb money is selling short stocks and this could be the bottom we have been waiting for!

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月3日(週二)的市場技術分析。

週一美股大幅下挫，主要的利空因素一是能源價格攀升，二是標普調降幾大金融機構的信用評級引發投資者對金融板塊的憂慮，三是美聯銀行和華盛頓互惠銀行宣佈管理層人事變動。昨天收盤道指下跌134點或1.06%，收於12503點。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的“動能反轉”的判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到：“上周股市剛好收於關鍵阻力位下方。在我們看來，從5月27日開始的超賣反彈幾乎已經完成了任務，動能隨時都有可能消耗殆盡。”

昨天原油價格的上漲推低了大盤。紐約商業交易所7月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格上升41美元，收於每桶127.76美元。能源股方面，我們最近作出看漲評論的James River Coal Company(JRCC)週一放量大漲7%以上，收於40.77美元，刷新了52周新高。事實上，如果你在我們3月26日Swing trader bulletin推薦該股時買入，到昨天收盤你已經獲得了將近150%的收益。

週一，由於標普調降了美林(MER)、雷曼兄弟(LEH)和摩根士丹利(MS)的債務評級，金融股遭遇強勁拋盤，結果銀行指數大跌1.83%，收於74.48點的多年來新低。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

從上圖我們可以看到，今年銀行指數已經3次從75點附近的關鍵支撐獲得反彈，但是昨天指數終於果斷突破。這是一個非常不利的信號，意味著昨天的向下突破有可能是新一輪跌勢的開始。

不過先別著急，在長期圖形上，情況又有一些不同。

圖1.2 KBW銀行指數(周線圖)

在上面為期6年半的周線圖上，我們可以看到目前相對強弱指標(RSI)出現正面背離。這意味著銀行板塊可能正在接近“投降式拋售”。這一局面一旦發生，將激發一波強勁的空頭回補反彈，從而有可能將價格推向5月高點區域，大約88點。如果未來數天出現止跌反轉行情，將確認這一走勢。關鍵支撐位還十分遙遠，在大約70-65點的區間。

俗話說，銀行向東，大盤不往西。金融股的弱勢也拖累了大盤，標普大跌大約15點或1.05%，收於1385點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天我們寫道：“標普很有可能出現測試上週一低點的走勢，大約1373點。”恰如我們所料，昨天指數掉頭向下。目前最應該關注的位置是1373 點。正如我們提到的，如果指數堅定跌破這一支撐，將增加重新測試1325點的關鍵支撐的可能性。在目前關頭，標普只有站上1406.32點的5月29日高點，才能逆轉短期看跌的態勢。

總結：金融板塊是標普中最重要的板塊之一。一般而言，如果沒有金融股的參與或帶動，不可能有大的牛市出現，或者即便出現強勁上攻也難以持久。儘管銀行板塊週一向下突破的走勢是看跌的，不過技術分析告訴我們這只是短期的，我們已經非常接近金融危機的底部，而非新一輪危機的開始。正如上面提到的，銀行股出現了投降式拋售的跡象，“傻錢”(dumb money)正在賣空，說明我們一直期待的底部正在出現。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。