Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for June 03, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for June 03, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for June 03, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday June 02, 2008.

We’ve noted right here in the previous Market Outlook that: “we’re starting to repeat what happened at the end of March when tech stocks took the leadership…General speaking, the market is doing quite well when tech stocks outperformed and vice versa. So, is it a new bull market? We don’t know yet. But technical analysis tells us that if there is a bull market, it should be in tech.” Large cap tech stocks outperformed Friday with the NASDAQ 100 index gained 0.67% amid Dell’s (DELL) upbeat earning report. Notably, tech stocks had rallied every day last week, up 3.44% for the week.

Unfortunately, things didn’t go well for the boarder market. The Dow lost a few points and the S&P struggled around the unchanged mark amid a rising energy prices. Crude oil rebounded 0.58% to $127.35 following its steep 3.4% decline in Thursday’s trade. The action had confirmed the validity of the “technical rebound” scenario that we’ve offered in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “while the short-term trend remains bearish, the RSI indicator is indicating a short-term oversold situation and we’re, therefore, expecting a technical rebound in a very near future.”

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

The RSI indicator crossed above the oversold territory as a result of Friday’s positive price action. This is bullish and suggesting that there is a pretty good chance that we’ve already seen a short-term low. In a broader sense, the May 22^nd high at 133.70 and last Friday low at 125.70 are the two important levels to watch. A bullish close above 133.70 or a bearish close below 125.70 should clarify the picture, and hence open the door for the next big move that could last about 2 to 4 trading weeks. Also, as mentioned, oil could pullback to as low as 120 and still not damaging the long-term bull trend.

With regarding to energy, shares of James River Coal Company (JRCC) jumped 5.66% Friday on heavy volume to close at 38.09 – a fresh 52-week high. In fact, if you’ve purchased JRCC since profiled in March 26 “Swing trader bulletin”, you’d be sitting on more than +130% gains right now.

Chart 1.2 – James River Coal Company (daily).

Looking at the seven-moth daily chart, we can see that there is currently an overbought consolidation – price is well above its 50-day moving and must be considered short-term overextended. However, unless there is a sustain decline below the May 21^st low at 31.15, the overall trend remains up and we’re still believed that pullbacks should be bought.

Energy’s jumped dragged down the board market with the S&P 500 index gave back a majority of early gains to close slightly above the zero line, up 2 points or 0.15% to 1400.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

As you can see from the above chart, there is currently a retest of the massive 2-conjoining resistance levels – the broken March trend-line and the important sentiment 1400 level. Not only that this is a tough level to overcome, the market is also fast approaching a short-term overbought condition, so it wouldn’t surprise us to see a rally deceleration in a very near future. That being says, there is a pretty good chance that we’ll see a test of last Monday low at 1373 sometimes this week - a decline below 1388 will confirm this. Also bear in mind that a failure to hold above 1373 is indicating a retest of key support at the 1325 level. At this juncture, only a sustain advance above May 19^th high at 1440.24 can wreck the short-term bearish bias.

In summary: the market closed out the week right beneath the area of key resistance. It seems to us that the oversold bounce that started on May 27^th has nearly run its course and could peter out at any moment.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年6月2日(週一)的市場技術分析。

我們在上週五的市場前瞻中寫道：“當前股市正在重複3月底的行情：科技股領漲，股市已形成一個重要低點。總而言之，目前股市表現非常不錯，科技股繼續領漲大盤，當然後者也正是前者的原因。那麼這是否是一輪新牛市的開始？我們不得而知。不過技術分析告訴我們，如果有牛市的話，那也應該是科技股的牛市。”上週五，受戴爾(DELL)強勁財報的推動，大型科技股表現突出，納斯達克100指數上漲0.67%。尤其令人矚目的是，上周科技股每個交易日都在上漲，納指周漲幅為3.44%。

不幸的是，大盤的表現就沒有這麼樂觀了。隨著能源價格繼續攀升，道指下跌數點，標普艱難收於平盤點位。在上週四大跌3.4%之後，上週五原油反彈0.58%，收於每桶127.35美元。上週五原油的走勢恰好印證了我們在當天的市場前瞻中提出的“超賣反彈”的判斷：“儘管短期趨勢依然看跌，不過相對強弱指標預示著短期超賣，因此預計很快會有一波技術反彈。”

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

經過上週五的反彈之後，相對強弱指標(RSI)從超賣區域抬頭上行。這是一個看漲信號，意味著原油很有可能已經形成了一個短期底部。更宏觀地來看，133.70美元的5月22日高點和125.70美元的上週五低點是需要關注的兩個重要價位。收盤站上133.70美元或者跌破125.70美元將使得趨勢明朗化，決定後續2到4周油價大體的走向。同時我們再次強調，原油有可能回調至120美元的低價，而且即便如此，仍難以逆轉原油的長牛走勢。

能源股方面，James River Coal Company(JRCC)上週五放量大漲5.66%，收於38.09美元的52周新高。事實上，如果你在我們3月26日Swing trader bulletin作出推薦之後便買進該股，如今你的收益率已經超過130%。

圖1.2 James River Coal Company(日線圖)

從上面7個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，JRCC目前正在走出一輪超買整理行情，由於價格大幅遠離50日線，因此短期內肯定是被過分拉升了。不過，除非股價有效跌破31.15美元的5月21日低點，總體趨勢依然看漲，我們依然相信回調是買入的機會。

能源價格的上漲推低了大盤，標普500指數放棄了盤中的大部分漲幅，收盤略高於平盤點位，上漲2個點或0.15%，收於1400點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

從上圖我們可以看到，目前標普正在重新測試兩大重合阻力位，一是已經被突破一次的3月份開始的上升趨勢線，二是1400點的重要心理關口。不僅該雙重阻力可謂易守難攻，而且短期內指數也已經超買，因此動能馬上轉為向下是不足為奇的。由此來看，本周標普很有可能測試1373點的上週一低點，如果接下來跌破1388點，將確認這一走勢。我們還應該時刻銘記，如果標普未能守住1373點，意味著指數很有可能重新測試1325點的關鍵支撐位。在目前關頭，只有堅定站上1440.24點的5月19日高點，才能逆轉短期看跌的態勢。

總結：上周股市剛好收於關鍵阻力位下方。在我們看來，從5月27日開始的超賣反彈幾乎已經完成了任務，動能隨時都有可能消耗殆盡。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。