Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” for June 02, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for June 02, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for June 02, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday May 30, 2008.

Stocks closed higher Thursday with the Dow gained about 52 points or 0.41% to finish at 12646. As a matter of fact, today’s trading action had proved the validity of the “attempt to rally” scenario that we’ve traced out in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “Wednesday’s afternoon resiliency is pretty bullish and helped setting the stage for another attempt to rally.”

Contributed to the overall optimism were a sharp drop in energy prices and upbeat earning reports from a numbers of key retailers.

U.S. light crude oil for July delivery fell $4.41 to settle at $126.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Price pulled back to support at the area of previous bullish breakout, at 126, immediately followed our May 27 bearish comment. While the short-term trend remains bearish, the RSI indicator is indicating a short-term oversold situation and we’re, therefore, expecting a technical rebound in a very near future. As usual we must stress out that oil could pullback to as low as 120 and still not damaging the long-term bull trend.

Retail stocks outperformed Thursday following a fresh batch of earnings reports. Discount retailers Costco (COST) and Big Lots (BIG) both posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings results, benefiting from consumers’ search for bargains. Sears Holdings (SHLD), however, unexpectedly reported a lost of $0.53 per share in its latest quarter. For the day, the S&P retail index advanced 1.46%. This is, in fact, very consistent with the working “bullish” hypothesis that we’ve offered here yesterday.

Regarding to retail, shares of Big Lots Inc (BIG), a subject of our recent bullish discussion, jumped about 10% Thursday morning amid the rosy earning report. The stock, however, pulled back a bit in the afternoon to settle at $30.66, up 7.47% for the day.

Chart 1.2 – Big Lots Inc (daily).

Looking at the ten-month daily chart, the “new leg-up” has carried BIG about 40% higher since we’ve featured the stock in our April 15 “Swing trader bulletin”.

Yesterday we’ve wrote that: “there is a pretty good chance that we’ll see a nice push above the minor resistance at May 14^th high, about 29.44, and directly into the mid 30’s area.” As anticipated, resistance at the May 14^th high did prove to be “only temporary”. While the overall trend remains positive, price is well above the January’s trend-line, which is considered a short-term overextended at the moment. In addition, today’s bullish breakaway gap, which’s certainly implied powerful upside momentum, though also suggesting the need for some backings and fillings in a near future. Overall, we’re still bullish on BIG and believed that pullbacks should be bought.

Optimism surrounding retail stocks had helped pushing the market higher with the S&P 500 index closed up 0.53% to 1398.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

As expected, the index broke out above the short-term downtrend today. This is a short-term plus for the bulls. However, a failure to close above the 1400 level is quite disappointing. In addition, the RSI is also fast approaching the overbought level. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see price deceleration in the days ahead. Immediate support is at the area of the weekly low, about 1375. In short, as a whole the market is still acting positive, although tech stocks are acting considerably better.

Chart 1.4 – NASDAQ Composite index (daily).

Looking at the seven month daily chart, we can see that there is currently a retest of key resistance at the 200-day moving average. In fact, the NASDAQ traded above this level intraday but sellers push it back beneath by the close. Not only that this is a tough level to overcome, the short-term RSI is also indicating an overbought condition – a situation that’s precursor to a pullback consolidation. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see some sorts of prices weaknesses in the days ahead. Immediate support is around the 2430 area.

But hold on, things are a lot better for large cap tech stocks.

Chart 1.5 – QQQQ (daily).

Above is the daily chart of the NASDAQ 100 index ETF (QQQQ) – this chart was featured in our May 28 “Cubes Speculator Bulletin”. As you can see, the newly (May 23) buy signal is indicating that the Qs had completed the near-term correction within a two-month powerful bullish channel, and ready for a retest of the prior high at 50.47. This, if hurdle and sustain, will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, and have the potential to propel prices into the area of December’s high, about 52.50. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below May 23 low at 47.82 can compromise the near term bullish outlook.

In summary: we’re starting to repeat what happened at the end of March when tech stocks took the leadership and the market put in the important low. General speaking, the market is doing quite well when tech stocks outperformed and vice versa. So, is it a new bull market? We don’t know yet. But technical analysis tells us that if there is a bull market, it should be in tech.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月30日(週五)的市場技術分析。

週四美股全線上揚，道指高收大約52點或0.41%，收於12646點。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的“繼續走高”的判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到：“週三下午的拉升行情非常有利，為大盤繼續走高打下了基礎。”

導致昨天股市走強有兩大利好因素，一是能源價格的急劇回調，二是幾家重要的零售商公佈了強勁業績。

昨天紐約商業交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格大跌4.41美元，收於每桶126.62美元。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

在我們5月27日作出看跌評論以後，油價立即出現回調，目前在126美元的前期向上突破位獲得支撐。儘管短期趨勢依然看跌，不過相對強弱指標 (RSI)顯示短期已經超賣，因此最近應該會有一波技術反彈。不過我們必須重申，油價有可能回調至120美元的低位，但是即便如此，原油的長期牛市依然不改。

週四一批新出爐的財報公佈之後，零售股表現優於大市。由於消費者對低價商品的需求增加，折扣零售商Costco(COST)和Big Lots(BIG )均公佈了好於預期的季度業績。不過，Sears Holdings(SHLD)出人意料地公佈最近季度每股虧損0.53美元。昨日收盤，標普零售指數大漲1.46%。事實上，零售板塊的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的看漲判斷如合符節。

零售股當中，我們最近作看出漲推薦的Big Lots(BIG )公佈利好財報之後昨日股價一度暴漲大約10%。不過該股下午略有回落，最後收於30.66美元，漲幅7.47%。

圖1.2 Big Lots(日線圖)

從上面10個月的日線圖上我們可以看到，自從我們最早在4月15日的Swing trader bulletin中對該股作出推薦以來，新一輪的沖高走勢已經達到40%的漲幅。

我們在昨天的評論中寫道：“該股接下來很有可能站上5月14日高點的次要阻力位，大約29.44美元，然後徑直攻向35美元左右的價格區域。” 恰如我們所料，5月14日高點的阻力的確被證明“只是暫時的”。儘管總體趨勢依然看漲，不過目前價格已經大幅高於1月份開始的上升趨勢線，因此短期內已經上漲過度了。另外，昨天的突破留下一個很大的跳空缺口，儘管意味著上漲動能非常強勁，但同樣說明近期有回調和整固的需要。總而言之，我們對BIG 依然看漲，認為回調之後應該是買入的時機。

投資者對零售股的樂觀情緒助推了大盤走高，標普500指數高收0.53%，收於1398點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

不出預料，昨天指數突破了短期下降趨勢。這在短期內是一個利多信號。不過昨天標普收盤未能站上1400點則非常令人失望。另外，相對強弱指標 (RSI)正在快速接近超買，因此接下來動能出現減速是不足為奇的。緊鄰支撐位在一周來低點區域，大約1375點。簡而言之，儘管科技股遙遙領先大盤，大盤整體表現依然是正面的。

圖1.4 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

從上面7個月的日線圖中我們可以看到，目前納指正在重新測試200日均線的關鍵阻力位。事實上，昨天盤中納指一度站上200日線，不過收盤前再度被空頭打壓至均線下方。200日線是一個非常強大的阻力位，而且短期相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示超買局面，因此未來數天納指出現一定的回調是不足為奇的。緊鄰支撐位大約在2430點區域。

不過先別著急，大型科技股的形勢要好得多。

圖1.5 QQQQ(日線圖)

我們在5月28日的Cubes Speculator Bulletin中對NASDAQ 100 index ETF(QQQQ)作出了分析。從圖上我們可以看到，QQQQ最近(5月23日)出現買入信號意味著它已經完成了2個月強勁上升通道內的一波近期回調，已經準備好向50.47美元的前期高點發起測試。如果它能夠順利攻佔這一高點阻力，將觸發大量止損，從而有可能將價格推向12月高點區域，大約52.50美元。在目前關頭，只有有效跌破5月23日低點(47.82美元)，才能危及近期看漲的勢頭。

總結：當前股市正在重複3月底的行情：科技股領漲，股市已形成一個重要低點。總而言之，目前股市表現非常不錯，科技股繼續領漲大盤，當然後者也正是前者的原因。那麼這是否是一輪新牛市的開始？我們不得而知。不過技術分析告訴我們，如果有牛市的話，那也應該是科技股的牛市。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for May 30, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.