S&P tested the important psychological 1400 level today. Not only that it failed to close above this level – this is also expected – Thursday’s trading volume was not very encouraging; it’s just about average. Technically speaking, today trading action didn’t have the characteristic of a “bullish breakout” day – it’s rather a continuation the pullback consolidation pattern that starts on Monday April 21st. Of course, this won’t last forever though until proven otherwise expect the index to drift sideway within the 1370-1400 trading range. As mentioned, it’s critical that price stays above the 1370 level. This, if violate and sustain, will increase the odds for a retest of the 50-day moving average, about 1345 now. In summary: while Thursday’s trading action is bullish, it doesn’t have the characteristic of a “bullish breakout” day. In short, it’s good but no firework!

昨天標普對1400點的心理關口作出測試，而測試出現失敗也在我們預料之中。同時昨天的成交量也不是特別高，僅略微高於均值。從技術上講，昨天的走勢並不具備“向上突破”的特徵，反而只是4月21日開始的整理行情的延續。當然，這一局面不會永久持續下去。不過如果不出現意外的話，我們預計指數將繼續在1370-1400點的區間震盪。我們曾提到，標普堅守1370點的位置非常關鍵，一旦被堅定擊穿，將增加指數向下測試50日均線的可能性，目前大約在1345點。