while seemingly vulnerable for further short-term loss, the bulls will not get into any serious trouble as long as price holds above March’s low. And until proven otherwise, we believe that the market is in for a period of sideways trading for the next couple of months. In short, rather than looking at the January and March lows as a double bottom, let’s consider them the bottom of a new, wider trading range between S&P 1270 and 1400. This can be part of the healing or bottoming process, but chances are it might also lead to low volume days no matter where the tape is heading.

儘管大盤短期內似乎仍比較脆弱，不過只要3月低點不受侵犯，多頭便不會陷入嚴重困境。因此如果不出意外，我們相信市場已經進入一個區間震盪的時期，而且還將持續幾個月的時間。因此，或許我們不應該將1月和3月的低點看成一個雙底，而應該看成一個新的更大交易區間的下方邊線，就標普而言便是 1270點到1400點的區間。這一區間運行的態勢可以起到修復市場或反覆築底的作用，同時不論大盤是漲還是跌，量能都可能持續低迷。