Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for May 01, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for May 01, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

The Dow up more than 100 points prior to the FOMC announcement. What’s going on?

Topping today headline was news that General Motors Corp (GM), a Dow component, reported a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss and said overseas sales helped to alleviate weakness in the U.S. market. Its shares rose more than 12%, their biggest one-day advance since May 2005. Just so that you know, initially profiled in April 07 “Swing Trader Bulletin”, GM has gained about 13% and remains well positioned.

As we’ve noted in the previous Market Outlook, smart money continues to rotate into tech stocks. This, in fact, was exactly what the members of our “Swing Trader Bulletin” been doing in the past couple of weeks. Yes, we’re always early though it’s better to be early than sorry! Initially profiled on March 12, Google Inc (GOOG) gained more than 32%.

Initially profiled on March 10, Ariba Inc (ARBA) gained more than 33%.

Initially profiled on April 1, Amdocs Ltd (DOX) gains about 12% and remains well position.

Retails and medical instruments stocks are also doing very well. Initially profiled in April 15 “Swing Trader Bulletin”, Big Lots Inc (BIG) has gained more than 25% and remains well positioned.

And so BDX. Initially profiled in April 21, Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX) advances for 6 straight days and remains well positioned.

These are just couples of many successful trades that our member had enjoyed recently. After all, aren’t you glad you subscribed?

P.S. Take advantage of the 30 days special trial [new member only]. Join the group of elite traders and receiving these daily trading ideas, click here to subscribe.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday April 30, 2008.

As expected, stocks drifting sideways Tuesday as investors await the FOMC announcement on interest tomorrow. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.3% and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost nearly 0.4%. Though do not let the quiet day fool you. The most significant part of the day was to see money quietly coming out of commodities and commodities related stocks like gold and energy and into tech stocks.

Chart 1.1 – World gold index (daily).

The yellow metal lost about 50 points immediately followed our bearish comment on the commodity on April 21. While seemingly vulnerable for further short-term loss, we see no convincing evidence that the long-term bull market in commodity is over. As mentioned, the most obvious level to watch is the 200-day moving average – it’s a good place where bargain hunters often place their bets. In addition, the relative strength index indicator, or RSI, also suggests that commodity is pretty much oversold in a medium-term basis – a condition that precursor to a meaning rebound.

Despite the overall weakness, high beta stocks like Google Inc (GOOG), Baidu.com Inc (BIDU), Research In Motion Ltd (RIMM) and Apple Inc (AAPL) have broken out to multi-month highs in Tuesday trading session. This is a clear sign that some smart money is positioning themselves for a rotation out of commodities and into tech. The tech-heavy NASDAQ composite index gained about 1.7 points for the day.

Chart 1.2 – NASDAQ composite index (daily).

As you can see, tech stocks have been outperformed the S&P since late March. This is bullish though the bulls won’t have any cases until they manage to take out resistance at the six-month falling trend-line, now at 2450. This, if hurdle and sustain, will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, and hence has the potential to push prices into the area of 200-day moving average, about 2530. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below immediate support around the 2360 level can wreck the current outlook.

The slide in commodities and energy prices dragged down the board market. The S&P lost 0.39% as a result.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The index continues basing sideway just beneath resistance. As mentioned, while a majority of short-term indicators favor a break to the upside, the bears still have the benefit of the doubts until we see a sustain breakout above key resistance at the area of November’s low, about 1406. Although, fake-out – a break above 1406 and back below it – is not uncommon in FED days. That being said, chances are we’ll see a few false moves in both directions in a next couple of days. Key support is at the area of 50-day moving average, now at 1345.

In summary: it seems to us that the market is in need of a meaningful catalyst to overcome the key resistance levels. Hopefully tomorrow FOMC announcement will do the trick.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月30日(週三)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，昨天由於投資者等待聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)在今日公佈利率政策，大盤窄幅橫向運行。整個交易日道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌 0.3%，標普500指數下跌近0.4%。不過我們不要被表面上的風平浪靜所欺騙，昨天的行情最引人注目的一點就是，資金正悄悄地從黃金、能源等商品及相關個股撤出，流向科技股。

圖1.1 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

自從我們4月21日對黃金作出看跌評論以來，黃金指數立即下跌了大約50個點。儘管短期內金價還有可能進一步下挫，不過我們並無明確證據斷言商品的大牛市已經終結。正如我們上次提到的，我們最應該關注的位置是200日均線，很多投資者都會選擇在這個位置抄底。另外，相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示黃金中期內嚴重超賣，預計接下來會有一波有力反彈。

儘管大盤萎靡不振，昨天谷歌(GOOG)、百度(BIDU)、Research In Motion(RIMM)和蘋果(AAPL)等高β值個股盤中卻突破至數月來新高。這是一個明顯的跡象，說明聰明錢正在商品和科技之間進行板塊輪動。昨天科技股占主導的納斯達克綜合指數上漲大約1.7個點。

圖1.2 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

我們可以看到，納指從3月末以來動能比標普更為強勁。這是看漲的，不過在納指攻佔2450點附近的6個月下降趨勢線阻力之前，多頭不會有太大機會。相反，如果納指堅定突破長期趨勢線，將觸發大量止損，其激發的動能有可能將指數推向2530點附近的200日均線區域。在目前形勢下，納指只有堅定跌破2360點附近的緊鄰支撐位，才可能逆轉目前的看漲態勢。

商品和能源價格的下跌也拖累了大盤，標普昨日下挫0.39%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨日指數繼續在水平阻力位下方盤整。正如我們提到的，儘管大量短期指標都支持指數向上突破，但是在指數堅定站上1406點附近的11月低點關鍵阻力之前，空頭依然掌握著主導權。而且，在聯儲公告發佈日，出現“假突破”也是很常見的，也就是說不排除標普突破1406點又跌回下方的可能。總而言之，在未來幾個交易日出現一些“騙線”的漲跌是不足為奇的。關鍵支撐位在50日均線，目前在1345點。

總結：在我們看來，大盤要攻破重大阻力位，需要有重大利好的推動。今天下午聯儲的公告有望成為這樣的催化劑。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for April 30, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.