Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

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Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday March 27, 2008.

As we’ve offered right here in the previous Market Outlook: “it seems to us that the market is entering a consolidation period, which might last about 2-7 trading sessions” – stocks tanked Thursday, as investors showed concern about downgrades of several financial institutions, and disappointing news from Oracle and Google.

Financial stocks had a volatile day of trading - the sector up as much as 0.9% in early trading though ended the day at its lows with a loss of 2.0%. The sector was a laggard for most of the session due a number of earnings estimate cuts. A Lehman Brothers analyst cut estimates on Citibank (C), Bank of America (BAC), UBS (UBS) and other large-cap banks. An Oppenheimer & Co. and a Punk, Ziegel & Co. analyst also reduced estimates for Merrill Lynch & Co (MER).

Chart 1.1 – KBW Bank index (daily).

The sector dropped about 6% immediately followed our bearish comment – “the overall technical outlook remains bearish…we wouldn’t be surprised to see some sorts of weaknesses in the days ahead.”

Technically, the long-term conditions have not changed since our last update on the sector [a couple of days ago]. It still sports the same bearish character: a declining trend. And this should keep the bulls on defensive for now.

While the medium-term outlook seems vulnerable for further weaknesses, the leading bullish divergence on the MACD indicator is suggesting that the sector could be due for a short-term technical rebound. Also notice that although the MACD is above its signal line, the indicator still trades below the zero line, and hence confirmed the validity of the above long-term bearish outlook.

In short, there is a pretty good chance for a retest of Monday’s bearish reversal point, about 86, in the days ahead. An advance above 83.10 will confirm this. Key resistant is about 90. As mentioned, until we see a sustain advance above this level, there is no high-confidence signal that an important bottom has been made - yet. Immediate support is about 80.

Disappointment over Oracle (ORCL) earning report and Lehman Brothers cut its price target to $580 on shares of Google Inc (GOOG) – citing weak “pay per click” number - weighed on the tech sector with the NASDAQ Composite Index lost about 43 points or 1.87% for the day.

Chart 1.2 – NASDAQ Composite Index (daily).

Thursday decline had push price back to the area of immediate support at the 20-day moving average. In addition, while the MACD indicator is still below 0 and suggesting the bearish trend, the indicator is trending above its signal line, and hence flashing a short-term bullish signal. With that said, there is a pretty good chance for a short-term technical rebound that could have the potential to push prices into the area of key resistance, about 2380. Immediate support is about 2200.

Bad news surrounding the financial and tech stocks dragged on the board market with the S&P 500 lost about 12 points or 0.88% to finish at 1341.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Similar to the NASDAQ, the S&P also pulled back to the area of immediate support at the 20-day moving average. Trading volume remained modest during the decline. This is a good sign, which suggested that an urgency to sell is diminishing, at least for now. With all that said, there is a pretty good chance that we’ll see a short-term technical rebound that could have the potential to push prices into the area of key resistance, about 1400. Immediate support is about 1270.

In summary: it seems to us that the stage had been set for a technical rebound that has the potential to fuel a run into the S&P 1400.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年3月28日(週五)的市場技術分析。

我們在昨天的市場前瞻中寫道：“在我們看來，市場已經進入了一個盤整階段，有可能會持續2到7個交易日。”昨天，受幾家金融機構評級調降以及來自甲骨文和谷歌的利空消息打壓，美股繼續下挫。

昨天金融股震盪劇烈，盤中一度上漲0.9%，但是收盤跌入低谷，重跌2.0%。受一系列盈利預期調降消息打壓，整個交易日大部分時間金融股都落後於大盤。一位雷曼兄弟分析師調低了對花旗銀行(C)、美國銀行(BAC)、瑞銀(UBS)和其他一些大型銀行的盈利預期，而一位Oppenheimer & Co.分析師和Punk Ziegel & Co.分析師同時對美林(MER)的預期作出了調降。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

從我們上次對銀行板塊作出看跌評論之後，指數已經下跌6%。我們當時提到：“整體技術面依然看跌……未來數日出現一定的下跌是不足為奇的。”

在技術方面，從我們數天前對銀行板塊作出分析至今，長期局勢並未有所改觀，依然處在下跌趨勢之中。這樣多頭可能會進入防守態勢。

儘管中期形勢依然很容易進一步走軟，但是從MACD指標出現看漲背離來看，銀行板塊短期內可能會出現一波技術反彈。我們從圖上還可以看到，儘管MACD指標線已經抬升至信號線上方，但是依然低於零線位置，這也進一步證明指數長期趨勢是看跌的。

總而言之，指數在未來數天很有可能重新測試週一的向下反轉位，大約86點。如果接下來指數站上83.10點，將對此作出確認。關鍵支撐位大約在 90點。正如我們曾提到的，在指數堅定站上這一位置之前，我們尚不能十分肯定一個重要底部已經形成。最近的支撐位大約在80點。

昨天科技股充當了領跌主力，納斯達克綜合指數下跌近43點，跌幅1.87%。科技板塊的利空消息一是甲骨文(ORCL)令人失望的財報，二是雷曼兄弟將谷歌(GOOG)目標股價調降至580美元，原因則是谷歌2月份廣告點擊率的下降。

圖1.2 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

昨天的下跌將納指拉回至20日均線的最近支撐區域。另外從MACD指標來看，指標依然低於零線說明跌勢仍然沒有改變，指標高於信號線則是一個短期看漲信號。因此，未來數天指數很有可能出現一波短期技術反彈，將價格拉升至2380點附近的關鍵阻力位。最近的支撐位大約在2200點。

金融股和科技股的負面消息也拖累了大盤，標普500指數下跌12點左右，收於1341點，跌幅0.88%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

同納指類似，標普同樣已經回撤至20日均線附近的支撐區域。昨天的下跌量能依然不是很足，這是一個好現象，說明至少目前拋盤的壓力在逐漸減小。由此來看，短期內標普很有可能出現一波技術反彈，從而將價格推向1400點附近的關鍵阻力位區域。最近的支撐位大約在1270點。

總結：在我們看來，大盤似乎已經準備好走出一波技術反彈行情，其動能有可能持續到標普1400點的位置。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

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