Archive for February, 2008

Trading range is the name of the game

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 28, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday February 29, 2008.

Stocks stumble out of gate Thursday as weak economic and corporate news weighed on the market. The fourth quarter preliminary GDP reading was unchanged from the advanced reading at 0.6% though it was below the Street expectation of 0.8%. New unemployment claims for the week ended Feb. 23 rose to 373,000 from 354,000. The consensus estimate called for a reading of 350,000. General speaking, this increase is not a good economic signal.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of Lifecell Corporation (LIFC) jumped more than 5% Thursday on heavy volume.

lifecell_20080228

Chart 1.1 – Lifecell Corp (daily).

Initially profiled in February 26 “Swing Trader Bulletin”, LIFC has gained more than 10% and remains well positioned. Today bullish breakout had cleared resistance at February high. While the short-term trend might be overly extended, a pullback to support at recent bullish breakout point, about $37, will attract buyers. The medium-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below key support at the area of February low, about $35.75.

Financials got hit hard in Thursday sell-off after Fed Chairman Bernanke said before the Senate Banking Committee that smaller U.S banks may fail. The KBW bank index dropped 3.46% for the day.

bank_20080228

Chart 1.2 - KBW bank index (daily).

The KBX took an abrupt turn for the worse today. The action had increased the probability for a test of key price level at the area of January low. In addition, the bearish MACD indicator crossover seems to favor the bear case. Right now, we’ll have to keep a close eye on the short-term support at February low, about 84. If this goes, we believe that January low would be gone as well. At this juncture, only a sustain advance above Wednesday high at 89.93 can wreck the bearish outlook.

As goes the bank so goes the tape, so to speak. Weaknesses in the financials stocks had dragged the S&P down. The broader market index fell 0.89% to close near its worst level of the session.

sp500_20080228

Chart 1.3 - Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Looking at the daily graph of the S&P, we can see that price has made a naughty U-turn right beneath the 50 day moving average. While the action is bearish, the bears will not have their case unless they mange to push prices below key support at the area of February low, about 1316. Further, downside volume was just about average and we, therefore, believe that Thursday decline is merely an oversold consolidation. In short, more likely than not, prices will continue to chop sideways before a new catalyst kicks in and push them out of the “stubborn” trading range. Resistance is at the area of 50-day moving average, about 1400.

Strikingly, shares of Apple Inc (AAPL) shook off its long funk on Thursday and jumped to a 3-week high after Tim Cook, the company’s chief operating officer helped cool worries about the company’s outlook. Speaking at a Goldman Sachs technology conference, Cook reiterated that Apple will meet its 2008 target of selling 10 million iPhones. Despite the good news surrounding Apple, the tech rich NASDAQ Composite index failed to catch a bid, down 0.94% for the day.

nasdaq_20080228

Chart 1.4 –NASDAQ Composite Index (daily).

The NASDAQ pushed up against the four-week falling trend-line and, for goodness sake, the trend-line pushed prices back down. While this presents us with a bearish picture, it is short term in nature. Volume was also lower so we think instead of falling through key support at February low, as many market participants believed it would, prices will consolidate around the center of the several week long triangle before some catalysts kick in and push them out of the range. Support is at the area of February low, about 2252. Resistance is at the area of 50-day moving average, about 2420.

In summary: there is no need to sugar coating, Thursday trading action is bearish. Although the market’s negative reaction to bad economic news is disconcerting. What really concerns us is the extreme bearish sentiment among market participants – everywhere we go, people are saying the same thing: “look at the chart, the bounce is over! We’re due for a third leg down of the bear market!” Thursday downside volume also seems to support the working hypothesis that people are look forward to the “next big drop”. And this brings back the old market adage “the watched pot never boils” – especially when things are “too good to be true”. In short, until proven otherwise trading range is the name of the game.

 

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)


Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

 

 

 

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繼續在區間運行

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 28, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

這是Capital Essence對2008年2月29日(週五)的市場技術分析。

受疲軟經濟數據和公司財報影響,昨天股市跳空低開。第四季度美國經濟增長速度大幅放緩,年增長率降至0.6%,與上月預估值相同,低於華爾街 0.8%的預測值;2月23日結束的上周失業救濟金申領人數從35.4萬增至37.3萬,此前平均預測值為35萬。總的來說,失業救濟金申領人數的上升並不是什麼好的經濟信號。

儘管大盤疲軟,昨天Lifecell Corporation(LIFC)股價卻放量大漲5%以上。

lifecell_20080228

圖1.1 Lifecell Corporation(日線圖)

自從我們2月26日”Swing Trader Bulletin對該股作出推薦以來,迄今漲幅已經超過10%,而且還有上漲空間。昨天的飆升已經清除了2月高點的阻力。儘管短期內該股已經大幅上揚,但是如果它回撤至近期突破位支撐(大約37美元),依然會迎來買盤。該股中期依然看漲,除非收盤跌破2月低點關鍵支撐,大約在35.75美元。

由於聯儲在講話中提到美國小型銀行可能處境糟糕,昨天金融板塊大幅下挫,KBW銀行指數下跌3.46%。

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圖1.2 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

KBW昨天形勢突然惡化,這一走勢增加了向下測試1月低點關鍵價位的可能性。另外,MACD指標也似乎預示著下跌的走勢。目前,我們必須密切關注2月低點的短期支撐位,大約在84點。如果這一位置沒能守住,我們相信1月低點也同樣會失守。在目前形勢下,只有持續上漲至週三高點(89.93點)之上,才能夠逆轉看跌的態勢。

恰如俗話所說:銀行往東,大盤不往西。昨天銀行板塊的弱勢也拖累了標普。標普下跌0.89%,收於昨天低點附近。

sp500_20080228

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

從標普的日線圖上可以看到,指數在50日均線下方出現一個U型反轉。這一走勢無疑是看跌的,不過除非空頭能夠將股指打壓至2月低點下方(大約 1316點),下跌的空間並不大。進一步說,昨天跌勢的量能並未出現放大,僅僅處於平均水平,因此我們相信週四的下跌僅僅只是整理過程。簡而言之,在出現新的催化劑將指數帶出“頑固的”交易區間之間,標普很可能繼續保持震盪運行的態勢。阻力位大約在50日線附近,大約1400點。

昨天,在蘋果(AAPL)公司首席運營官Tim Cook平息市場對公司前景的擔憂之後,公司股價從長期頹勢中發力上攻,漲至3周來新高。在高盛主持的科技會議上,Cook重申蘋果將達到2008年 iPhone銷售1000萬台的目標。儘管有蘋果的利好消息,昨天納斯達克綜合指數還是下跌了0.94%。

nasdaq_20080228

圖1.4 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

納指在試圖攻破4周來下降趨勢線的時候受到打壓。這一走勢是短期看跌的。不過量能也有所萎縮,因此我們認為納指不太可能出現大家所期望的跌破2 月低點支撐的走勢,而是在數周來形成的長三角形中位附近整理,直到新的催化劑將其推出區間。支撐位在2月低點,大約2252點。阻力位在50日均線附近,大約2420點。

總結:我們沒必要掩飾,昨天的走勢是看跌的。儘管市場對利空經濟新聞的消極反應令人擔憂,但真正不利的是整個市場極度悲觀的情緒,所有人都在在說:“看看圖形,反彈結束了!大盤將第三次大幅下跌!”從昨天的量能來看,似乎也說明人們都在期待“下一次大跌”。不過我們還應記得這句諺語:“盯著的水壺永遠不開,”尤其在事情好得超乎我們想像的時候。總而言之,我們認為大盤很有可能繼續在區間內運行。

 

(本文作者:Michelle Mai)


﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱

 

 

 

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Market Commentary-大盤預測 & 趨勢信號

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for February 29, 2008. Subscribers, please click here to login.

 

 

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Swing Trader Bulletin 每日精股推薦

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for February 29, 2008. Subscriber, please click here to login.

 

 

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Bear market rally

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 27, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday February 28, 2008.

We’ve point out right here in the previous Market Outlook that: “the short-term trend is a bit tired …expecting some sorts of profit takings in the upcoming days. Stocks opened on a down note Wednesday, following three consecutive sessions of gains, as investors weighed weak reports on housing and manufactured goods and the near-record energy prices.

Speaking of housing, the PHLX Housing Sector Index gained more than 1% Wednesday on the face of the weaker than expected New Homes Sales – January new home sales fell to a 588,000 unit annualized rate from a revised 605,000 unit annualized rate in the previous month, which is well below the expected drop of 600,000 unit annual rate.

housing_20080227

Chart 1.1 – PHLX Housing Sector Index (daily).

Today upside follow-through had confirmed the validity of Tuesday bullish breakout. Also notice, the leading bullish MACD crossover. Technically speaking, the short-term outlook remains positive barring a close below key support at the area of February low, about 130. Resistance is about 155.

Despite the lift in the housing stocks, the S&P has been unable to register gains in Wednesday session. The board market index finished slightly below the zero line, down 0.09%.

sp500_20080227

Chart 1.2 - Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Not only that the index failed to confirm the validity of Tuesday bullish breakout, the short-term relative strength index (RSI) indicator also dropped below the overbought territory. The action is indicative of a short-term trend reversal. The index has a short-term support around the 1354 level. While Wednesday trading can be classified as bearish, the bears will not have their cases unless they manage to push prices below this level. Resistance is at the area of 50-day moving average, about 1400.

It also worth noticing that, the Euro hit an all time high against the dollar, stretching upward to $1.514, after the Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated that the Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates in the near term. The greenback weaknesses had helped to put in a bid in the large caps stocks. The Dow industrial average finished slightly above the zero line, up 0.07%, as a result.

dow_20080227

Chart 1.3 – Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

Despite Wednesday gain, the index still traded within Tuesday trading range, and hence failed to confirm the validity of the bullish breakout. The short-term relative strength index (RSI) indicator is also on a verge of breaking down. A sustain decline below Tuesday low at 12512.41 is indicative of a test of key support at the area of February low, about 12069.

In summary: Wednesday trading action had confirmed the validity of the short-term “overbought” scenario that we’ve point out in the previous Market Outlook. As also mentioned, whether this is merely a pause that refreshes or a beginning of something important is remained to be seen, though, since we’re still in a bear market, we’ll continue to treat the rebound from February low as nothing more than a “bear market rally”.

 

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)


Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

 

 

 

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總體跌勢未改

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 27, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

這是Capital Essence對2008年2月28日(週四)的市場技術分析。

昨天的“市場前瞻”中我們曾指出:“短期趨勢略顯疲態……預計未來數日可能出現一些獲利回吐盤。”受房地產和製造業的利空消息和能源價格逼近歷史新高的打壓,美股在連續3個交易日上漲之後,昨天出現低開。

房地產方面,儘管新屋銷售量低於預期,昨天PHLX房地產指數依然上漲超過1%。一月份新屋銷售數字較上月修正後按年率的60.5萬棟下降2.8%,至58.8棟,大幅低於此前市場預期的降至按年率60萬棟。

housing_20080227

圖1.1 PHLX房地產指數(日線圖)

昨天的繼續上揚對週二的向上突破作出了確認。我們還可以注意到,MACD指標出現看漲交叉。從技術上講,短期內依然是看漲的,除非指數收於2月低點的關鍵支撐位下方,大約130點。阻力位大約在155點。

儘管有房地產股的拉動,標普昨天依然未能出現上漲。標普昨天微幅下跌,跌幅0.09%.

sp500_20080227

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普不但未能對週二突破的合法性作出確認,而且相對強弱指標(RSI)也跌至超買區域下方。這預示著將出現短期回撤走勢。標普短期支撐位大約在 1354點。儘管週三的走勢可以被認為是看跌的,但是只要空頭不能成功將股指打壓至支撐位之下,將不會出現大的下跌。阻力位在50日均線的位置,大約 1400點。

還值得注意的是,由於聯儲主席伯南克在國會的講話暗示聯儲近期內還將繼續降息,昨天歐元對美元匯率創出新高,一路飆升至1.514美元。美元的走低對大型藍籌股起到了推動作用。結果道瓊斯工業平均指數小幅高收,漲幅0.07%。

dow_20080227

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

儘管週三出現上漲,道指依然未能突破週二的交易區間,從而也未能對突破作出確認。短期相對強弱指標(RSI)同樣站在跳台邊上。如果股指跌破週二低點、12512.41點,將意味著對2月低點的關鍵支撐區域作出測試,大約在12069點。

總結
:週三的價格走勢證實了我們昨天提出的“短期超買”的看法。再重複一次,現在到底是上漲中的稍息還是新一輪大跌的開始,還有待觀察,畢竟大盤的總體趨勢仍是下跌的。我們繼續將從2月低點的走高僅僅視作“跌勢中的反彈”。

 

(本文作者:Michelle Mai)


﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱

 

 

 

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