there is no need to sugar coating, Thursday trading action is bearish. Although the market’s negative reaction to bad economic news is disconcerting. What really concerns us is the extreme bearish sentiment among market participants – everywhere we go, people are saying the same thing: “look at the chart, the bounce is over! We’re due for a third leg down of the bear market!” Thursday downside volume also seems to support the working hypothesis that people are look forward to the “next big drop”. And this brings back the old market adage “the watched pot never boils” – especially when things are “too good to be true”. In short, until proven otherwise trading range is the name of the game

我們沒必要掩飾，昨天的走勢是看跌的。儘管市場對利空經濟新聞的消極反應令人擔憂，但真正不利的是整個市場極度悲觀的情緒，所有人都在在說：“看看圖形，反彈結束了！大盤將第三次大幅下跌！”從昨天的量能來看，似乎也說明人們都在期待“下一次大跌”。不過我們還應記得這句諺語：“盯著的水壺永遠不開，”尤其在事情好得超乎我們想像的時候。總而言之，我們認為大盤很有可能繼續在區間內運行。

Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for February 29, 2008. Daily Market Outlook is the technical analysis of financial markets. Features Technical Analysis, Trend Prediction, Stock Picks, Option Strategies. It designs to help investors to understand how to time the market, when to entry, when to exit, how to pick undervalued stocks, how to limit investment risk with right strategies

Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for February 29, 2008. Using proprietary tools and candlestick charts, the Swing Trader Bulletin establishes near-term market bias and identifies patterns, trends, support and resistance levels, moving averages, attractive entry and exit points, buying opportunities.

Wednesday trading action had confirmed the validity of the short-term “overbought” scenario that we’ve point out in the previous Market Outlook. As also mentioned, whether this is merely a pause that refreshes or a beginning of something important is remained to be seen, though, since we’re still in a bear market, we’ll continue to treat the rebound from February low as nothing more than a “bear market rally”.