Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for January 23, 2008. Using candlestick charts and proprietary tools, The Swing Trader Bulletin establishes near-term market bias and identifies patterns, trends, support and resistance levels, moving averages, attractive entry and exit points, buying opportunities

Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for January 23, 2008. Daily Market Outlook is the technical analysis of financial markets. Features Technical Analysis, Trend Prediction, Stock Picks, Option Strategies. It designs to help investors to understand how to time the market, when to entry, when to exit, how to pick undervalued stocks, how to limit investment risk with right strategies.

可能出現快速反彈

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 21, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.   這是Capital Essence對2008年1月22日(週二)的市場技術分析。 上周,在衰退憂慮和金融市場重大利空的打壓下,美股繼續萎靡不振,各大股指大幅走低。整個一周標普500下跌76點,跌幅5.4%,已經從去年 10月峰值縮水15%。納斯達克綜合指數下跌100點至2340點,跌幅4.1%,低於去年10月高點18%。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌507點,跌幅 4%,收於12099點。道指在過去4周已經下跌了約10%,低於去年10月峰值15%。這是道指有史以來最差的一年開端。 在大盤連續下跌4周後,很多人都在擔心跌勢還將持續多久。為了弄明白這個問題,我們先來看一些直觀的圖形: 圖1.1 芝加哥期權交易所(CBOE)波動率指數(VIX)(周線圖) 從上周芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數的走勢來看,投資者對股市的憂慮情緒進一步攀升。上週四道指跳水300多點的時候,波動率指數暴漲16%。儘管上週五出現大約4%的回落,說明緊張氣氛有所緩和,從技術上講,波動率指數大幅走高說明市場存在恐慌情緒,通常意味著短期抄底機會的出現。如果本周該指數出現回調,將確認短期底部的形成。 圖1.2 標普500指數(周線圖) 從中期來看,標普已經處於嚴重超賣狀態。從圖上我們可以看到,通常作為超買或超賣指示器的相對強弱指標(RSI)已經跌至了2002年以來的最低點。總的來說,投資者可以利用這一信號捕捉一波跌市中的反彈。長期支撐位大約在2006年最低收盤附近,約1223.69點。短期阻力位大約在 1374~1400之間的區域。 圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(周線圖) 道指目前正在測試2007年最低收盤位的關鍵價格支撐,大約在12050.41點。目前我們還無法確定這一位置能否最後守住。儘管相對強弱指標已經跌至2002年來最低,但出現逆勢反彈的機會還是很大的。正如我們提到的,如果指數收盤跌破2007年最低收盤點位,長期牛市將轉為熊市。短期支撐位大約在12600點。 圖1.4 [...read more]

Snap back rally

like a rubber band, stocks tend to snap back to the mean if they’ve dropped too far from the “fair” value. With that said, if lower stock prices create some values for investors, then, given everything being equal, the market should be able to find some buyers. However, the upside potential seems to be limited, at least for the time being, for it might take quite a bit of time to repair the significant damage that had been done over the past couple of months before we can start to think about getting back to last year’s highs. As always we must stress that a failure to bounce after last week steep decline indicates that real demand did not return and we could, therefore, argue that this bear market is going to have some legs

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