One of the great privileges of trading for a living is to be able to take time off to spend with family and friends during the holidays. We’ll be celebrating the traditional X’Mas holiday starting from
We’d also like to use this opportunity to wish you and your family a Merry Christmas and a Happy and prosperous New Year!
And last but not least, thanks for your readership and continue support.
Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on December 20, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.
這是Capital Essence對2007年12月21日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。
昨天大盤再現過山車走勢，最終小幅高收。道瓊斯工業平均指數漲幅約為0.3%，標普500指數高收0.5%。值得注意的是，在所有9個上漲板塊中，科技板塊連續第三個交易日充當了領漲的角色，而其中主要的動力源是甲骨文公司(ORCL)和蘋果公司(AAPL)。大家應該繼續堅持下去，看上去華爾街都看好這一波聖誕反彈行情。
科技板塊昨天的走勢同我們週三晚上在”Cubes Speculator Bulletin“中的預測十分吻合：“QQQQ似乎在49.50美元的位置找到了支撐，預計明天將向上測試51美元的價位。”昨天，追蹤納斯達克100指數的QQQQ在出現一波短暫回調後受強勁買盤拉高，一度上摸50.96美元。昨天QQQQ的看漲期權交易當天收益率大約在50%左右。
圖1.1 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)
到目前為止，納指走勢非常不錯，後市可能面臨向上測試2700點附近的雙重阻力。支撐位在8月和11月低點附近，約2540點。我們提到過，如果納指跌破該支撐，將完全扭轉目前的看漲形態，空頭重新掌握控制權。
圖1.2 羅素2000指數(日線圖)
自從我們12月18日作出看漲評論後，羅素2000隨即上漲了2%左右。連續3連陽之後，預計股指很快將測試780-790附近的三重阻力位。在這個節骨眼上，只有股指連續跌破730點才有可能扭轉看漲局面並引發進一步下挫。
圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)
昨天標普的下探被買盤托住，收出一根長下影線，收盤小幅走高。接下來標普很有可能向上測試1490點附近的雙重阻力，不過不會再明天發生。短期支撐位在1435點左右。另外，明天是期權到期日，因此標普很有可能停在1460點不動。
圖1.4 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)
道指在200日均線下方形成了一個小的下降旗形。儘管這毫無疑問是一個看跌的形態，但我們並不準備馬上加入看空的陣營，除非股指跌至週二低點之下。因此，如果股指持續下跌至13092點之下，將為測試12700點附近的11月低點做好準備。
總結：從短期來看，技術面支持大盤進一步走高，形勢較為樂觀。
(本文作者：Michelle Mai)
注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。
Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on December 20, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.
Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for
Stocks finished higher after another roller coaster day of trading with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about +0.3%, the S&P 500 Index rose nearly 0.5%. It worth noticing that of the nine sectors traded high, tech (NDX, +1.90%) continue to lead the market for the third straight session amid strength in Oracle (
Speaking of tech, Thursday’s trading action was very consistent to what we’ve predicted in our Wednesday evening “Cubes Speculator Bulletin”: “QQQQ seemed to found support around the $49.50 level. Expect a test of the $51 level tomorrow.” The NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQQ) reached as high as $50.96 Thursday after the brief intraday pulled back was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. Any call option traded could have earned about 50% intraday.
Chart 1.1: NASDAQ Composite Index (daily).
So far so good, the index traded like it wants to test the double resistant around the 2700 area. Support is at the area of August/November’s low, about 2540. As mentioned, a failure to hold above this area will wreck the positive outlook and hence, put the bear into the driver side of the market.
Chart 1.2: Russell 2000 Index (daily).
The small caps index added about 2% immediately after our December 18 bullish comment. So far so good, it seems to us that the triple resistant around the 780-790 level will be tested sooner rather than later. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below the 730 level can wreck the bull case and argue for lower prices.
Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).
The board market index traded a bit higher after a decline into the area of late November’s bullish breakout gap was met with buyers. As mentioned, there is a high probability for a test of the double resistant around the 1490 level though this is not expected tomorrow. Short-term support is about 1435. By the way, tomorrow is the option expiration day and it seems to us that the index got pin at 1460.
Chart 1.4: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).
The blue-chips index printed a small bear flag right beneath the 200-day moving average. Although admittedly bearish looking, we wouldn’t migrate to the bear’s camp unless the index tumble below Tuesday’s low. That said, a sustain decline below the 13092 level will set the stage for a test of November’s low, about 12700.
In summary: from a short-term perspective, things look positive going forward with the technical background supports further upside.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.
This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for December 21, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.
This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for December 21, 2007. Subscribers, please click here to login.
This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for December 21, 2007. Subscribers, please click here to login.
