Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for November 23, 2007. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 20, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年11月21日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

美股昨天跌宕起伏，道指上下波動267點之多。事實上，週二的交易狀況和我們之前在“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”中的預測非常一致：“QQQQ似乎想從此處走高。[但是]波動指標表明反彈勢必遭到拋賣。” 納斯達克100指數在上午相當漂亮地上漲了43點(漲幅2.1%)之後，便在午盤遭遇猛烈拋賣，轉而下跌30點，跌幅約1.5%。但在收盤前最後一小時，該指數又成功收復部分損失，最終小幅高收，漲幅0.44%。當日交易的任何期權都將獲得超過50%的收益。

昨日高漲的一隻股票是埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil) (XOM)——我們曾在11月19日的“Swing Trader Bulletin”中將其列為潛在的買進對象。昨天，在瑞銀集團將該股評級從“中立”調升至“買進”之後，XOM股價上漲了4.4%。同時，XOM還是道指中表現最好的股票。

圖1.1：標普500指數

昨天的交易狀況並沒有為股市未來幾天的走向提供多少信息。從技術面上看，在多頭成功地將標普500指數推至上週三高點1493點之前，姑且判斷空頭仍將佔據主動。支撐位為8月低點，約1370點。

圖1.2：道瓊斯工業平均指數

和標普500指數相似，該指數當前也在低位橫向整理。這看上去並不是好現象。如上所述，在多頭成功將該指數送至上週三高點——約13320點之前，偏負的盤面仍將保持不變。支撐位為8月底低點，約12517點。

圖1.3：羅素2000指數

顯然，小型股也吃盡了苦頭，將羅素2000指數送到了跌破8月低點關鍵支撐位的邊緣。如果該指數在該位置沒能吸引到買家，將導致小型股進一步下跌。請記住，小型股市場一旦崩盤，多頭的壓力將會更大。短期阻力位約為775點。

總結：雖然股市週二尾盤的反彈看上去相當振奮人心，但小型股的交易狀況確實令人不安。這種背離當然不會永久持續下去。最終，不是小型股發生逆轉加入大型股上漲的陣營，就是大型股回落，與小型股匯合。預計在股市做出決定之前，大盤仍將保持震盪。在這之前我們都會繞著走。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 20, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday November 21, 2007.

Stocks experienced a rocky day that saw the Dow swing of more than 267 points from high to low. As a matter of fact, Tuesday trading action was very consistent with what we’ve predicted in the previous “Cubes Speculator Bulletin”: “the Q’s traded like it wants to move higher from here. [However] the breadth indicator…suggested that the rally should be sold.” After a pretty fair +43 points or +2.1% rally in the morning, the NASDAQ 100 Index sold off hard and lost as much as -30 points or about -1.5% in the early afternoon. The index was, however, managed to recover some of the losses during the last hour to close slightly above the zero line, up 0.44%. Any options traded could have earned more than +50% intraday.

One stock that went up for the day was ExxonMobil (XOM) – the stock was featured in our November 19 “Swing Trader Bulletin” as a potential buy candidate. Share of XOM gained 4.4% for the day after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral. It was also the Dow’s top performer.

Chart 1.1: Standard & Poors 500 Index.

Today trading action provided very little information on trading direction over the next couple of days. Technically speaking, the bears still have the benefit of the doubts unless the bulls manage to push prices above last Wednesday’s high of 1493. Support is at August’s low, about 1370.

Chart 1.2: Dow Jones Industrial.

Similar to the S&P, the blue-chips index also basing sideway near low. This doesn’t look very good. As noted above, the negative bias remains intact until the bulls manage to push prices above key resistant at last Wednesday’s high of 13320. Support is at August’s low, about 12517.

Chart 1.3: Russell 2000 Index.

Apparently, small caps stocks are taking it on the chin, putting the Russell 2000 Index on the precipice of falling through key support at August’s low. A failure to attract buyers at this level could lead to further selling of the group. Bear in mind that a breakdown in the small caps market, if any, will give to bulls more pressures than they’ve already had. Short-term resistant is about 775.

In summary: while the size of Tuesday’s late afternoon rally seems pretty encouraging, trading action in the small-caps universe is definitely worrisome. This split personality, of course, won’t last forever. Either the small caps stocks turn around to join their larger peers, or the large stocks will come back down to reunite with the smaller guys. Expect things to remain choppy until Mr. Market makes up his mind. Until then, around and around we go.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for November 21, 2007.   Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for November 21, 2007.   Subscriber, please click here to login.