Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for November 21, 2007. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 19, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年11月20日 (週二) 的市場技術分析。

在金融板塊走軟的背景下，美股週一再遭重創。高盛(GS)調降花旗集團(C)評級是昨日股市整體疲軟的原因。這一消息使市場相信不良投資將導致更多的資產減記情況出現，從而再一次引發投資者拋售投資銀行股和券商股。因擔心MBIA (MBI) 和 Ambac (ABK)等債券保險公司的評級也被調降，投資者也在不斷拋售這些公司的股票。

圖1.1：KBW銀行股指數(BKX)

週一的拋盤將銀行股指數拖至上週低點——約90點的關鍵支撐位置。請記住，如果BKX沒能守住這一支撐位，可能會導致銀行股的進一步下跌，從而增大2003年看漲突破點——約80點被考驗的幾率。短期阻力位約為100點。

圖1.2：標普500指數

受金融股重創的拖累，標普500指數跌破了上週低點——約1438點的短期支撐位。這是看跌的信號。我們說過，如果該指數沒能守住8月低點——約1370點的關鍵支撐位，2003-2007年的牛市將會終結。

圖1.3：道瓊斯工業平均指數

和標普500指數相似，道指同樣跌破了約12981點的上週低點支撐位。這也是看跌的信號。如上所述，請對8月低點的關鍵支撐位加以密切關注，因為持續跌破該支撐位將再次引發大規模拋賣。

總結：週一股市的下滑增大了考驗8月低點關鍵支撐位的可能性。我們說過，如果防守失敗，2003-2007年的牛市就將終結。當前，唯有金融版塊的逆轉才能防止股市崩盤。因此，交易者應密切關注銀行股指數的90點位置。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 19, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday November 20, 2007.

Equity market suffered another noticeable loss Monday on the back of a weak financial sector. Contributed to the overall weakness were Goldman Sachs’s (GS) downgrade of Citigroup (C), which has once again spurred more sales of investment banks and brokerages in expectations of more write-downs on bad investments. Investors also continue to sell bond insurers like MBIA (MBI) and Ambac (ABK), due to worries on downgrades.

Chart 1.1: KBW Bank Index (BKX).

Monday sell-off had pushed the index to key support at last week’s low, about 90. Bear in mind that a failure to hold above this level could lead to further selling of the group and hence, increase the chance for a test of the 2003 bullish breakout point, about 80. Short-term resistant is about 100.

Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index.

Hurt by the financial stocks, the board market index broke down below short-term support at last week’s low, about 1438. This is bearish. As mentioned, a failure to hold above key support at August’s low, about 1370, will spell an end to the 2003-2007 bull market.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial.

Similar to the S&P, the blue-chips index had also failed to hold support at last week’s low, about 12981. Again, this is bearish. As noted above, keep an eye on key support at August’s low, for a sustain breakdown below this level could lead to another massive sell-off.

In summary: Monday decline had increased the chance for a test of key support level at August’s low. As mentioned, a failure to hold above this level will spell an end to the 2003-2007 bull market. At this stage, only a turn around in the financial group can save market from falling apart. So, it’s important that traders keep the BKX 90 on their trading radar.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.