Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

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Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 17, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 這是Capital Essence對2007年11月19日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

由於新近發佈的公司財報和持續不斷的信貸危機令投資者無所適從，美國股市上週五大部分時間都掙扎在盈虧線上。銀行、券商、運輸、零售板塊再次呈現弱勢，而石油和大型科技股則是主要的強勢板塊。

圖1.1：原油指數

上週五，原油價格上漲1.79%，每桶報收95.10美元。顯然，100美元大關的誘惑勢不可擋。支撐位為長達三個月的上升趨勢線。大家都知道，自8月27日我們對原油做過看漲評論以來，該商品已累計上漲23美元有餘，漲幅32%。

儘管聯儲官員蘭德爾-克羅茨納(Randall Kroszner)表示，即使美國經濟繼續惡化，央行也不大可能再次降息，但美元指數(DXY)上週五卻小幅低收。

圖1.2：美元指數(DXY)

美元指數週線圖上出現了一個內包線。這表明該指數理應出現一次回彈。該指數若能突破這個長達三個月的下跌趨勢線的短期阻力位，回彈的預測將得到確認。中期阻力位約為80點。支撐位約為75點。

得益於美元走低以及商品價格攀升，加拿大股市曾出現相當不錯的漲勢。今年夏季之前，加拿大投資者的運勢都不錯。

圖1.3：TSX綜合指數

TSX綜指在考驗7月高點時遭遇猛烈賣盤，隨後回調到了趨勢線支撐位的位置。從技術面來看，該指數若是跌破8月低點——12463點，看跌的雙重頂形態就會形成，從而長達四年的商品牛市也將結束。

和TSX綜指相似，全球股市的圖表也同樣表現出疲軟的信號。

圖1.4：倫敦富時100指數

歐洲股市同樣處於破位的邊緣。請記住，若倫敦富時100指數持續跌破約5821點的8月低點的支撐位，2003-2007年的牛市將會終結。同時請注意2000-2007年間的這個潛在的看跌雙重頂形態。這可是個碩大的雙重頂！

圖1.5：日經指數

在走強的日元的抑制下，日本股市持續在2000年高點這一阻力位的下方運行。這是看跌的信號。從技術面來看，日經指數若持續跌破2006年低點 ——約14053點，長達兩年的看跌的頂部擴散形態將會形成，因此預計2004-2005年的高點——約12000點將受到考驗。

圖1.6：上證綜指

上證綜指的表現超過其他各國指數。自06年初的看漲突破以來，中國股市就一直呈現出驚人的漲勢。圖中可以看出，上證綜指7-10月間的漲幅的幾乎和3-5月份間的上漲幅度不相上下。顯然，在第一階段買進的投資者已經獲利，在第二階段進場的投資者也不例外。那麼第三撥投資者會怎樣呢？等待他們的有悲也有喜——從長期來看，中國股市是看漲的，但它會進行一次短期的回調。因此，輸贏全在於投資者自己的時機把握和風險類型。請記住，如果中國股市沒能在當前水平努力一博，股價恐怕會有重新回到夏季高點，約4300點的可能。

美國投資者則不像中國人那麼幸運，他們擔心信貸危機的終結遙遙無期，爭先恐後地退場。

圖1.7：標普500指數

該指數已經回調到了長期上升趨勢線的支撐位附近。從技術面來看，該指數若不能守住8月低點——約1370點，2003-2007年的牛市將會終結。

總結：除中國股市外，其他各國股市目前都處於不確定的異常狀態——似乎瀕臨崩潰的邊緣。現在的問題是，我們能做些什麼？總的來講，要將全球經濟從崩潰中解救出來，需要做的事情很多。一個簡單的辦法就是再次為股市注入流動性，此舉可以防止當前的短期回調轉變成更為糟糕的態勢，從而為股市提供扭轉頹勢的時間和信心。如果伯南克(外號“直升機本”)果真能人如其名，我們相信他會在聖誕來臨之前為華爾街注資救市。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 17, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday November 19, 2007.

Stocks danced between positive and negative territory for most of the Friday session as investors weigh the latest corporate earnings and the ongoing credit crunch. Once again, banks and brokerages, along with transportation and retailers, were relatively weak, while the strength was mostly confined to oil-related stocks and large-cap technology.

Chart 1.1: Crude Oil Index.

Crude oil caught a bid last Friday, up +1.79% to close at $95.10/barrel. Apparently, the $100 target is just too tempting to resist. Support is at the three-month rising trendline. Just so that you know, oil had gained more than 23 points or +32% immediately followed our August 27 bullish comment.

Despite Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner’s remark that the central bank may not continue to lower interest rates, even if the economy worsens, the US Dollar Index (DXY) finished slightly lower for the day

Chart 1.2: US Dollar Index (DXY).

The greenback had printed an inside bar on the weekly chart. This suggested that it is due for a rebound. An advance above short-term resistant at the three-month falling trendline will confirm this. Intermediate-term resistant is about 80. Support is about 75.

Benefited by a lower greenback, and hence, higher commodities prices, the Canadian market has had a pretty nice run. Things were great for the Canadian investors until this summer.

Chart 1.3: TSX Composite Index.

The index pulled back to the area of trendline support after a test of July’s high was met by an aggressive wave of selling. Technically speaking, a walk to below the August’s low of 12463 will complete the bearish double top pattern and hence, spells an end to the four year-old commodity bull market.

Similar to the TSX, chats of the global markets are also showing signs weaknesses.

Chart 1.4: London Ftse-100 Index.

The European market is also on a verge of breaking down. Bear in mind that a sustain decline below key support at August’s low about 5821 will spell an end to the 2003-2007 bull market. Also notice the potential (2000-2007) bearish double top pattern. This is huge!

Chart 1.5: Tokyo Nikkei Index.

Held back by a stronger yen, the Japanese market continues to trade below the 2000’s high as resistant. This is very bearish. Technically speaking, a sustain decline below 2006’s low, about 14053 will complete the two-year bearish broadening top pattern and a test of 2004-2005 high about 12000 is, therefore, expected.

Chart 1.6: Shanghai Composite Index.

Outperformed …the rest of the world, the notorious Chinese market is having a spectacular run since early ’06 bullish breakout. As you can see, the magnitude of the July-October upleg is almost identical to that of the March-May one. Apparently, the first mouse, those who bought at point 1, got the cheese, and so the second mouse (point 2). So, what’s about the third mouse? The answer is yes and no – this market is bullish from a long-term perspective but is vulnerable for a short-term correction. So, it’s all depended on your time frame and risk profile. Bear in mind that a failure to catch a bid at current level will have the potential to push prices back to the summer’s high, about 4300.

Not as lucky as the Chinese investors, the American investors were scrambling for exit amid concerns that the credit crisis is far from over.

Chart 1.7: Standard & Poors 500 Index.

The board market index had pulled back to support around the area of long-term rising trendline. Technically speaking, a failure to hold above the August’s low of 1370 will spell an end to the 2003-2007 bull market.

In summary: except the Chinese market, the rest of the world is at an uncertain, odd place right now – they seem to be on a verge of breaking down. And the question is: what can we do? General speaking, there’re a lot of works need to be done in order save the global economy from collapsing. Though, it’s beyond the scope of this newsletter to go into details. To keep things simple, another fresh liquidity injection will do it. This is making sense because it’s holding this short-term corrective phase from turning into something worse and hence giving the market the needed time and confident to straightening things out. And if Helicopter Ben lives up to his name, we think he’d flood the Street with money before Santa comes to town.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.