Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for November 15, 2007.   Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Cubes Speculator Bulletin”  for November 15, 2007.   Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for November 15, 2007.   Subscriber, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for November 15, 2007. Subscribers, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 13, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年11月14日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

正如我們在之前的前瞻分析中指出的那樣：“[金融股和住宅建築商股]近期的表現表明股市正處於或非常接近一個可適機介入的底部”，且“隨著股市向短期極端拋賣狀態的逼近，恐懼情緒也在加劇，這通常是一次有意義的回彈的前奏”，週二股市漲，道指攀升近320點，漲幅2.46%。標普500指數大漲2.9%，納指高漲3.5%。

不出所料，金融、住宅建築商以及科技板塊率領股市反彈。提到科技股，納斯達克100 ETF(QQQQ)昨天也是個大贏家，漲幅4%有餘。此前，我們曾在“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”中指出：“股市理應出現一次超賣回彈”。

圖1.1：銀行股指數

週二，銀行股指數在週一1.18%漲幅的基礎上再次獲利4.83%。該指數正向98-100點的一層短期阻力位逼近。若該指數未能成功突破這道阻力位，則極為看跌，恐將不可避免地再次考驗上週低點。支撐位約為90點。

圖1.2：道瓊斯住宅建築商指數

如前所料，住宅建築商指數週二展開漂亮反彈，收穫4.79%。但是預計在多頭成功地將股價推至長達6個月的下跌趨勢線的上邊界之前，股市仍將保持震盪。

圖1.3：標普500指數

正如波動性指數所預示的那樣，大盤指數週二漂亮地回彈，漲幅近3%。阻力位約為1490-1500點。請對在該位置出沒的空頭交易者加以提防。支撐位約為1400點。

圖1.4：道瓊斯工業平均指數

道指在跌至長達三個月的上升趨勢線的下邊界後，獲得了買方的強力支持，該指數週二爆出了本年度第二大單日漲幅。這是看漲的信號。阻力位約為13500點。支撐位約為12975點。

總結：雖然週二的交易狀況相當正面，但它並沒有對未來股市指明新的方向。因此，預計在多頭成功將標普500指數推至1490點上方之前，股市仍將震盪不已。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 13, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday November 14, 2007.

As we’ve predicted right here in the previous Market Outlooks that “latest actions in the [financials and home builder] suggested that the market is at or getting pretty close to a tradable bottom” and “fear is mounting as market reaches a short-term extreme oversold condition. This is a situation that, often, precedes a meaningful bounce”, stocks surged Tuesday, with the Dow climbing nearly 320 points or 2.46% The S&P 500 index added 2.9% and the NASDAQ Composite added 3.5%.

Unsurprisingly, financials, home builder and technology were the leading sectors in Tuesday’s big rally. In speaking of technology, the NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQQ) was also big winner today, up more than +4% right after we’ve opined in the previous “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” that: “the market is due for an oversold rebound”.

Chart 1.1: Bank Index.

The banks added on to recent gains, up +4.83% today on the heel of yesterday +1.18% gain. The index is approaching the layer of short-term resistant that runs from 98-100. A failure to take out this level is very bearish and a retest of last week’s low is, therefore, inevitable. Support is about 90.

Chart 1.2: Dow Jones Home Construction Index.

As predicted, the home builder bounced nicely today, gained +4.79%. However, expect things to remain sloppy until the bulls manage to push prices above the six-month falling trendline.

Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500.

As the volatility index suggested, the board market index rebound nice today, up almost +3%. Resistant is about 1490-1500. Watch out for the sneaky bears around this area. Support is about 1400.

Chart 1.4: Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The blue-chips index post a second-biggest, single-day advance of the year today after a decline to the lower border of the three-month rising channel was met by an aggressive wave of buying interest. This is bullish. Resistant is about 13500. Support is about 12975.

In summary: while Tuesday’s trading action was positive, it doesn’t indicate a new direction for the market going forward. With that said, expect things to remain sloppy until the bulls manage to push prices above the S&P 1490.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.