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This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for November 13, 2007.   Subscribers, please click here to login.

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Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 10, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年11月12日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

欲知往何處去，須知自何處來。由於市場擔心金融公司的虧損將產生更為廣泛的經濟影響，且越來越多的消費者要為昂貴的抵押貸款買單，上週股市急劇下滑。

以下是近期的一些負面要聞：

• 近幾個季度，房屋建築商都發佈了虧損報告。
• 最近的行業調查結果顯示，10月份美國房屋建築商對新屋市場的信心指數進一步下滑，衡量新屋市場前景的指標仍處在歷史低位。
• 有著23年歷史的月度調查報告——全美房屋建築商協會/富國銀行房屋市場指數顯示，總體信心指標的讀數跌至了18點，為有史以來的最低水平。
• 從事喪失抵押品贖回權資產買賣的RealtyTrac的一項調查顯示，本季度喪失抵押品贖回權的案件較上季度增長30%，幾乎達到去年同期的兩倍。全美報告的喪失抵押品贖回權案件超過635000例——每196戶就有一例。
• 房屋開建數和營建許可證頒發數都達到了12年來的低點。
• 花旗集團(C)上週表示，由於信貸和抵押業務方面的問題，該公司預計第四季度將再度減記80-110億美元的資產。
• 美國第四大銀行Wachovia (WB)上週表示，其投資組合所持有的綜合性債務工具的稅前價值10月份減少了11億美元，導致本季度貸款損失額度達到6億美元。該銀行報告其第三季度房屋貸款擔保的債務稅前損失達13億美元。
• 美國最大的房屋貸款買入和擔保商Fannie Mae (FNM) 上週五表示該公司利潤在過去9個月損失過半。

由於利空財經消息在各行業都已成家常便飯，銀行股指數以及住宅建築商指數雙雙處於2004年以來的最低水平也不足為奇。

圖1.1：銀行股指數

目前，該指數正在50%的斐波納契折線處的關鍵支撐位運行。阻力位約為100-103點。

圖1.2：住宅建築商指數

該指數回調到了2004年看漲突破點的支撐位處。阻力位為2006年低點，約540點。

幾天前我們就在前瞻分析中指出：“消息在頂部和底部都會被放大”。最壞的情況是否已經出現還有待考證。儘管如此，如前所述，我們的確遇到了很多令人頭疼的壞消息。

如果歷史可作參考，那麼股市正向一個重要的轉折點逼近。隨著總統大選的升溫，而布什總統的支持率又創新低，政客們會想盡一切辦法重拾選民們的信心，這包括在頭版發佈絕好/利好的經濟新聞。我們相信這將為房市以及金融市場的好轉提供必要的平台。(華盛頓郵報與ABC的聯合民意調查顯示，大多數美國人對布什總統的誠信表示質疑，這在其任期內尚屬首次。此外，由於越來越多的人懷疑布什的領導才能，其在經濟、伊拉克以及恐怖主義戰爭方面的政策得到了有史以來最負面的評價。)

事實勝於雄辯。儘管股市整體走弱，但銀行股指數和住宅建築商指數上週五卻雙雙高收，漲幅分別為0.53% 和1.59%(見上圖1.1和圖1.2)。

圖1.3：標普500指數

該指數已回調至長期上升趨勢線的關鍵支撐位。1490- 1545點為該指數的一層支撐位。

總結：如果金融和房地產類股是股市近期“大出血”的起因，那麼這些板塊最近的表現則表明股市正處於或非常接近一個可適機介入的底部。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 10, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday November 12, 2007.

In order to map out future direction, we ought to know where we’re coming from. Stocks declined sharply last week amid worries about the wider economic impact of losses at financial companies and the growing ranks of consumers saddled with expensive mortgages.

Here are some of the recent negative headlines:

• Home builders had all reported losses in recent quarters.
• The nation’s home builders’ confidence for new homes market fell further in October, and a measure of their outlook remained at a record low level, according to the latest industry survey.
• The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index showed the overall confidence measure sank to 18, the worst reading on record for the 23-year old monthly survey.
• According to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosure properties, the number of foreclosure filings rose 30% from the previous quarter and nearly doubled from a year earlier. There are more than 635,000 foreclosure filings were reported nationwide - one for every 196 households.
• Both of the housing starts and building permits hit a 12-year low mark.
• Citigroup (C) said last week it expects to write down a further $8 billion to $11 billion in the fourth quarter due to credit- and mortgage-related problems.
• Wachovia (WB), the nation’s fourth-largest bank, said last week that the complex debt instruments it held in its portfolio declined in value by an estimated $1.1 billion before taxes in October, leading to a $600 million loan-loss charge for the current quarter. The bank had reported $1.3 billion in pre-tax losses in the third quarter tied to pools of debt backed by home loans.
• Fannie Mae (FNM), the largest buyer and backer of home loans in the country, said Friday its profits fell by half over the last nine months.

As bad financial news has been common place throughout the industries, it ain’t any surprises to see both of the Banks and Home Builders Indexes trading at level that had not seen since 2004.

Chart 1.1: Bank Index. The group is currently trading at key support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Resistant is about 100-103.

Chart 1.2: Home Construction Index. The homies pulled back to support at the 2004’s bullish breakout point. Resistant is at 2006’s low, about 540.

We’ve offered right here a couple days ago that: “in this business, news is best at top and worse at bottom”. Whether we’ve seen the worse or not is remained to be seen. Though, as listed above, we’ve certainly heard a lot of disturbing ones.

However, if history is any guidance, then market is approaching a significant turning point. With President Bush’s popularity reaches new low (according to the Washington Post-ABC polls, for the first time in his presidency a majority of Americans question the integrity of President Bush, and growing doubts about his leadership have left him with record negative ratings on the economy, Iraq and even the war on terrorism) as the presidential campaign heats up, politicians will do everything to restore voters’ confidence, that’s including printing decent and/or positive economy news to the front page. This, we believe, will provide the needed platform for a turnaround in the real estate market and so the financial market.

Actions speak louder than words. Despite the overall weakness, both of the Banks and Home Builder closed higher last Friday, up +0.53% and +1.59% respectively (see chart 1.1 and 1.2).

Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500. The index pulled back to key support at the long-term rising trendline. It has a layer of resistant that runs from 1490 to 1545.

In summary: if financials and real estate are causes of recent equity market’s “bleeding”, then latest actions in these groups suggested that the market is at or getting pretty close to a tradable bottom.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.