Capital Essence’s Investment Blog- 錢途集團

This is Capital Essence’s “Swing-Trader Bulletin” for November 08, 2007.   Subscriber, please click here to login.

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This is Capital Essence’s Market Outlook for November 08, 2007.   Subscribers, please click here to login.

This is Capital Essence’s “Trading the Market” Bulletin for November 08, 2007. Subscriber, please click here to login.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 06, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年11月7日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

週二，在金融板塊回彈的幫助下，美股尾盤展開反彈。幾天前我們就在前瞻分析中指出：“消息在頂部和底部都會被放大。當然，消息永遠可能變得更糟，但由於銀行股和標普500指數正在關鍵支撐位處運行，現在可能正是著手尋找賣家投降的信號以及挖掘有價值股票的好時機。”果不其然，銀行股指數 (BKK)週二上漲2%，原因是高盛(GS)否認了關於該公司將減記大筆資產的謠傳。

當日，道指上漲117點，收於13660點，漲幅近0.9%。標普500指數獲益1.2%，報收1520點，科技股為主的納指攀升1.07%，報收2825點。事實上，週二的交易狀況和我們在週一晚間的“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”中所做的預測非常一致：“週一午盤的重跌表明……週二的盤面將出現轉機。”不出所料，在週二早些時候走低之後，納斯達克100指數 ETF(QQQQ)上漲1.13%，收於54.68美元。當日交易的任何看漲期權盤中都將獲利40%左右。

美元指數繼續走弱，下跌0.5%，收於76.04美元，美元兌歐元的匯率創下新低。美元的頹勢成為金價上漲的一個催化劑。黃金持續在1980年以來的歷史高位，紐約商品交易所12月份交割的黃金價格上漲13美元，每盎司報收823.80美元。美國交易所黃金板塊指數當日漲幅達4.38%。

圖中可以看出，自9月7日我們對黃金做過看漲評論以來，該指數2個月時間已經漲了100點左右，漲幅達28%。從技術面上看，昨天的看漲突破已經為其考驗500美元區域打下了基礎。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。如前所料，該指數週二走高，從而再次將其短期的走勢轉為上揚。預計未來幾天，該指數將對1530-1545點附近的阻力位進行考驗。短期支撐位約為1490點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數相似，該指數週二同樣走高。但是由於道指目前仍在50日均線(見上圖)附近的阻力位置下方運行，該指數的短期走勢未能重新恢復上漲趨勢。在當前水平下，該指數只有站上上述阻力位，才能繼續走高。如果跌破位於13400點的短期支撐位，道指將考驗處於 13200點的200日均線。目前阻力位約為13750-13950點。

總結：週二股市的反彈確實令人振奮，但此次反彈到底是一次超賣回彈還是上漲的開始仍在人們的猜測之中。因此，在標普500指數站上10月11日高點——1577點之前，預計股市會在當前水平震盪。

長遠來看，敬請關注那些受到重挫的板塊，如金融版塊和房屋建築商板塊。原因是在這些“極度”超賣領域展開的回彈將是典型的年底反彈危險結束的信號。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 06, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday November 07, 2007.

Stocks staged a late rally Tuesday helped by a rebound in the financial sector. We’ve offered right here a couple days ago that: “in this business, news is best at top and worse at bottom. The news can always get worse, of course; though with the banks and S&P are trading at important support, this could be a good time to begin to look for signs of seller capitulation and hunting for value in the group” – the banks index (BKX) added about +2% today as it garnered a bargain hunting bid with Goldman Sachs (GS) denying rumors that it is going to announce a big write-down.

For the day, the Dow Jones industrials average finished 117 points, or nearly 0.9%, higher to 13660. The broader S&P 500 index gained 1.2% to finish at 1520, and the tech-laden NASDAQ climbed 1.07% to 2825. As a matter of fact, today trading action was very consistent to what we’ve predicted in our Monday evening “Cubes Speculator Bulletin”: “the strong Monday afternoon fade suggests… a “turn around Tuesday” – the NASDAQ 100 Index ETF (QQQQ) rose +1.13% to $54.68 after retreating into the red earlier in the session. Any call options traded could have earned about 40% intraday.

Continued weakness in the dollar index, which slipped 0.5% to $76.04, a new record low against the Euro, served as another buying catalyst for gold. Gold prices continued to trade at levels not seen since 1980, as COMEX gold for December added $13 to $823.80 an ounce. The AMEX Gold Bugs Index also gained +4.38% for the day.

As you can see, Gold Bugs jumped about +100 points or +28% in about 2 months immediately followed our September 7 bullish comment. Technically speaking, today bullish breakout had set the stage for a test of the $500 area.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. As expected, the index traded higher today and hence turned the short-term trend back up. Expect a test of resistant around the 1530-1545 level in the upcoming days. Short-term support is about 1490.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P, the blue chip index also traded higher today though it had not able to turn the short-term trend back up because it still trades below resistant at the 50-day moving average area (see chart above). At this level, only a walks above this level can argue for higher prices. And a decline to below short-term support at the 13400 level, meanwhile, suggests a test of the 200-day moving average, about 13200. Resistant is about 13750-13950.

Bottom line: today rally is, definitely, refreshing. Though whether this is just an oversold bounce or it’s the beginning of something good is anyone’s guess. With that said, until or unless the S&P takes out the October 11 high at 1577, expect things to be sloppy at current level.

In a longer term, keep an eye on the beaten-up sectors, like financials and homebuilders, for a rebound in these “extreme” oversold areas could serve as an all-clear sign for the typical year end rally.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.