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Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 05, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年11月6日 (週二) 的市場技術分析。

在上一次市場前瞻的文章中我們曾說到：“消息永遠可能變得更糟。”受信貸市場恐慌情緒影響，週一早晨股市大幅低開，道指開盤跳水130點左右。雪上加霜的是，花旗集團(C)由於約為550億美元的次貸相關投資合理價值大幅縮水，宣佈第四季度減記80到110億美元，同時集團董事長兼首席執行官查爾斯-普林斯宣佈辭職。週一交易日，花旗股票成交量便超過了2.2億股，幾乎是其平均日成交量的5倍。這很明顯是恐慌性拋盤的信號，或者我們常說的“賣家投降”。值得注意的是，標普在開盤大幅下挫之後，成功地在收盤前最後半個小時止跌回升。這說明有“聰明錢”在最後介入。

我們來看一下主要股指的情況：

上面是標普500的短期日線圖。不出我們預料，股指在1490點附近的前期上升突破區域獲得支撐，繼續盤整。週一走出的“錘頭”形態表明短期多方勝出。如果股指站上1514點，形勢將更加明朗。阻力位在1530到1545點的區間。

上面是道瓊斯工業平均指數的短期日線圖。同標普類似，道指同樣在前期上升突破區域獲得支撐，在13600點附近。週一看漲的“錘頭”形態說明短期內多方佔優，這同標普也是一樣的。13633點為有效反轉的觸發位，阻力位在13750到13950之間。

總結：我們在上週五的前瞻中就表示：“消息在頂部和底部都會被放大。”週一在花旗集團減記風波的衝擊下，大盤依舊成功站在週五低點之上，這已經十分振奮人心了。然而，市場還未脫離危險，所以“消息永遠可能變得更糟”，“真正的”底部出現還需要一些時間。因此我們要做好準備，同時要有耐心。

從短期來看，週一到在關鍵支撐位出現看漲錘形，說明市場可能已經找到短期底部。如果週二大盤走高，這將確定無疑。如果跌入週一低點之下，那麼標普將面臨重新測試1440點的支撐。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on November 05, 2007. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday November 06, 2007.

We’ve offered in the previous market outlook that: “the news can always get worse” – equity market opened significantly lower Monday morning with the Dow gapped down about -130 point at the opening minutes amid the credit market fears. Contributed to the overall negative sentiment was Citigroup (C) announcement of a write-down of approximately $8 billion to $11 billion for its fourth quarter due to significant declines in the fair value of its approximately $55 billion of U.S. subprime related direct exposures and its CEO and Chairman Chuck Prince is stepping down. There were more than 220 million shares of Citigroup, or nearly five times its average daily trading volume, were traded Monday. This is, clearly, a sign of panic selling or seller capitulation that we’ve been talking. It worth notice that after posting a substantial lost at the opening bell, the S&P managed to turn positive for a brief moment in the final half hour of the session. This could be a sign of smart money buying.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. As expected, the index consolidates near support at the previous bullish breakout area, about 1490. Today bullish hammer candlestick indicates a short-term bullish bias. An advance to above 1514 will confirm this. Resistant is about 1530-1545.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P, the blue chip index also consolidates near support at the previous bullish breakout area, about 13600. As noted above, today small bullish hammer indicates a short-term bullish bias. An advance to above 13633 will confirm this. Resistant is about 13750-13950.

Bottom line: We’ve opined in the previous market outlook that: “news is best at top and worse at bottom” the fact that stocks managed to hold above last Friday’s low on the face of Citigroup’s disturbing write-down news is pretty encouraging. The market, however, is not out of the wood yet so “the news can always get worse”; and it might take sometime for the “real” bottom to show up. So, you’ve got to be prepared and patient at the meantime!

From a short-term perspective, today bullish hammers printed around the area of important support suggested that the market might have found the short-term bottom. An upside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. And a decline to below today’s low, meanwhile, indicates a retest of the S&P 1440.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.